With hard work, injury free, and all that can a person who started running seriously at 15 years old expect to be running elite times (sub 14) in 10 years, maybe 15?
With hard work, injury free, and all that can a person who started running seriously at 15 years old expect to be running elite times (sub 14) in 10 years, maybe 15?
Nope. Talent exists. You're born with it or not. An untalented athlete won't get to sub 14 no matter how hard he trains.
No.
No. I think almost all healthy ectomorphs and mesomorphs could run sub-17, given your criteria. Endomorphs would be hard pressed to break 18.
Maybe the results would be different if you restricted diet and environment from birth, but that's never going to happen in the developed world.
YES!!!
The ONLY thing holding people back is weakness of the mind.
No chance. Some people just weren't meant to run. I have friends who are fit, slim and good at other sports but they couldn't break 18 in a 5k to save their life.
Just look at the huge variance in times from people doing near identical training.
I really do want to say yet, but it unfortunately seems a bit unrealistic. Some people were just meant to run! You take all of your friends and make them run a decent 400m, you'll immediately see the difference between them all. Some will naturally bounce on their toes and have long strides. Others will look more jagged and stomp their heels in to the ground and have choppy strides. While both sets of friends would improve dramatically if they trained for 10 years under elite supervision, it would be unrealistic to think that all of them would break 14 minutes in a 5k.
That said, there is a whole heap of talent out there than doesn't reach their potential because A) They don't work at it correctly, B) They stop running competitively too soon C) They just don't want to.
B) speaks volumes to me because you see so many talented runners in college, then once they graduate they decide to join the working world. Which is reasonable! Don't get me wrong, but many individual's bodies are still getting stronger and developing. If they were to run just 4 more years after graduating college at a high level, they would be fantastic lower top-tier runners. Unfortunately, the circumstance to run at that level 4 years out of college is unrealistic for most.
I remember a couple years ago when the Saugus fan boys were on here saying it was all mentality and coaching that made great runners. I was the one guy on the side of genetics.
Good to see things have changed around here.
The desire to reach your potential in running is itself a talent. It is as rare as the ability to run sub-14. The only one who will ever know if you reach your potential is you and it certainly doesn't come with any prize money. Luckily, many guys who run on the college level don't really need to get close to their potential to run sub-14. Most of us who have something close to the talent of desiring to reach our potential in running and some knack run sub-15. With only a little knack or a little desire, sub-16 or 17 because some are marathoners or 800 guys.
Not even close. People underestimate talent and overestimate hard work and mental toughness contribute to success. Maybe get to sub 16 and that is maybe.
Injury free for 15 years. Ran upwards of 120-140 miles a week. Trained with a purpose.
Ran 15:43, 2:32 Marathon. More of a mesomorph, 5'6" 143lbs even running weeks and weeks over 100 mpw.
Elite level is 99% talent.
Alan
Look at the lists of HS kids that have done well at Footlocker and then look at the elites going to the Trials etc.. You'll see that while some make it, it is far from a guarantee.
Runningart2004 wrote:
Injury free for 15 years. Ran upwards of 120-140 miles a week. Trained with a purpose.
Ran 15:43, 2:32 Marathon. More of a mesomorph, 5'6" 143lbs even running weeks and weeks over 100 mpw.
Elite level is 99% talent.
Alan
This is the perfect example. A great runner in his own right, especially that marathon, but never bellow 14 minutes.
Runningart2004 wrote:
Injury free for 15 years. Ran upwards of 120-140 miles a week. Trained with a purpose.
Ran 15:43, 2:32 Marathon. More of a mesomorph, 5'6" 143lbs even running weeks and weeks over 100 mpw.
Elite level is 99% talent.
Alan
I agree with Alan. I considered myself pretty untalented. 6:05 8th grade mile. Got to 4:27 and 15:50 5K barely being able to break 60 for the 400 through hard work, but I wasn't going anywhere. On the other hand, I was very proud of what I managed to accomplish. And, I have some great memories.
I think, in general, people have higher ceilings than they think, but most don't reach that level. Even people who say "Oh I've maxed out...I've been doing 100+ mile weeks for 5 years now and haven't gotten better" probably have a least a little more in the tank, they just aren't doing the right kind of training to squeeze out every last drop (not that reaching your absolute potential is exactly a realistic proposition). No person has literally exhausted every possible training method to find the unicorn that is "The Right Way to Train", for that particular individual. It is impractical and we tend to stick with what we know works, even if something else (even if it is a slight adjustment) could potentially work better
To answer the OP, no, not everyone is capable of sub 14 on hard work alone. I would argue that most able-bodied "runner-types" (whatever you take that to mean), could get close to 16 minutes in a perfect world.
many could go sub 15. i'd guess that about 50%.
very, very few would be sub 14. maybe 10% and I think I'm being generous. probably more like less than 5%
Reboot runner wrote:
I agree with Alan. I considered myself pretty untalented. 6:05 8th grade mile. Got to 4:27 and 15:50 5K barely being able to break 60 for the 400 through hard work, but I wasn't going anywhere. On the other hand, I was very proud of what I managed to accomplish. And, I have some great memories.
Getting to elite national, or the rare elite international, is a pretty temporary thing for most athletes. When it's over, if they don't have the life skills to exist in a system where they aren't naturally the best, ordinary life gets very difficult.
Your comment about being proud of your achievements is how every athlete should be taught to structure their goals/performances. Those are solid life skills that work inside and outside sport.
That doesn't mean there's no extra satisfaction in winning a race. In a healthy environment, it's not the only thing.
CPRP wrote:
I remember a couple years ago when the Saugus fan boys were on here saying it was all mentality and coaching that made great runners. I was the one guy on the side of genetics.
Good to see things have changed around here.
You were the one guy?!?
Hilarious what narcissists can convince themselves of. No doubt you were the ONLY one who had any idea that talent was a real thing. Probably the first person in the world. Your Nobel prize should be arriving any day now.
johnny dangerously wrote:
many could go sub 15. i'd guess that about 50%.
very, very few would be sub 14. maybe 10% and I think I'm being generous. probably more like less than 5%
Those are pretty funny estimates.
Thanks for the laughs.
Runningart2004 wrote:
Injury free for 15 years. Ran upwards of 120-140 miles a week. Trained with a purpose.
Ran 15:43, 2:32 Marathon. More of a mesomorph, 5'6" 143lbs even running weeks and weeks over 100 mpw.
Elite level is 99% talent.
Alan
My story is similar: Trained very hard for about 10 years, including several in which I ran over 7000 miles. Unfortunately, I did have problems with injuries - sciatica mostly. Still that wasn't why I wasn't elite, as my best times confirm: I ran low 15, 31, 1:09 and 2:27. I never broke 2 minutes for 800, despite it being a goal of mine for an entire summer.
Didn't Craig Virgin show up for his first day of XC practice, ,never really having trained for running before and run a 4:40 mile? Anyone who thinks talent doesn't play a role is a deluded romantic (which described me for a while, so.....)