Past performances do not count, only recent fitness. These teams are god awful, it would not surprise me if we don't get anyone into the 5000m final and no one finishes better than 10th in the 10000m. If not for Rupp the marathon team would also be one of the worst ever.
Lagat can still close in 52 apparently, so he's a medal threat if they let the 5,000 go out slow (> 13:15 pace).
Rupp is a medal threat in the 10,000.
Definitely not our worst teams ever. You must not remember how shitty our distance running was (except for Bob Kennedy, in the 90s and 2000s.
coach deez nuts wrote:
If not for Rupp the marathon team would also be one of the worst ever.
Ya, its not like we have the only American winner of the NY and Boston marathons in the past 2 decades on the team...
Does future performance count?
Lagat is a medal threat in the 5k, high 13 finals are perfect for him.
On the men\'s side, we have three separate silver medalists (four in the likely event Manzano makes the 1500 team) and a guy who can probably crack 8 in the chase. Sure doesn\'t sound like the worst ever. I mean I remember when we didn't send a full contingent for the marathon because we didn't have enough people with the "A" standard.
And don\'t tell me past performance doesn\'t count - what else are you going to use to predict the future?
J Ward is going to pull out for a top 15 finish in Rio. Don't sleep on him. Born and raised at altitude!
You are obviously too young to remember 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992...
No but I hoped more young runners would come through this year. Mead did well but it was unfortunate that others like Derrrick, Jenkins, Hill, Fernandez, Estrada, True and others did not have better performances this year. I have nothing against the US army runners. I just had not thought of Chelimo, Kipchirchir, etc as potential top guys for the US
I suggest you look up the results of the previous 29 modern Olympiads, I'm sure you can find a worse team somewhere between 1896 and the present
just not the same
In the 1996 10 000 trials, of the top 3 only Todd Williams had a sub-28 PB.
#FearKorir
v6 wrote:
Lagat can still close in 52 apparently, so he's a medal threat if they let the 5,000 go out slow (> 13:15 pace).
Rupp is a medal threat in the 10,000.
Definitely not our worst teams ever. You must not remember how shitty our distance running was (except for Bob Kennedy, in the 90s and 2000s.
There's no way Lagat's closing in 52 off of anything close to 13:15 pace. A 52 last lap off 13:15 pace would probably win gold or come damn close.
v6 wrote:
Definitely not our worst teams ever. You must not remember how shitty our distance running was (except for Bob Kennedy, in the 90s and 2000s.
Exactly. Besides Kennedy & Kempainen the 90s distance squads were horribly soft and not world class. The marathon teams were awful, too. The results show it. Keep in mind we're returning the silver medalist this time around. That alone makes this year's team stronger than many of the past teams.
MarEn wrote:
v6 wrote:Definitely not our worst teams ever. You must not remember how shitty our distance running was (except for Bob Kennedy, in the 90s and 2000s.
Exactly. Besides Kennedy & Kempainen the 90s distance squads were horribly soft and not world class. The marathon teams were awful, too. The results show it. Keep in mind we're returning the silver medalist this time around. That alone makes this year's team stronger than many of the past teams.
Yeah, screw Steve Spence!
MarEn wrote:
v6 wrote:Definitely not our worst teams ever. You must not remember how shitty our distance running was (except for Bob Kennedy, in the 90s and 2000s.
Exactly. Besides Kennedy & Kempainen the 90s distance squads were horribly soft and not world class. The marathon teams were awful, too. The results show it. Keep in mind we're returning the silver medalist this time around. That alone makes this year's team stronger than many of the past teams.
Todd Williams had some solid results. Plaatjes and Spence won WC medals. The women (Lynn Jennings, Patti Sue Plummer, Suzy F Hamilton) were all world class. The latter being erratic.
You didn't specify men's or women's side so I'll address both.
On the men's side Rupp got a silver 4 years ago and has to still be considered a medal threat, especially with what is going on with Kenyan athletics. I think he actually has a better medal chance at 10,000 than he does in the marathon. Lagat can still close in 52 in a tactical race, which the Olympic finals usually are so he could be in the mix for medals as well. Assuming Lagat makes the 5000 final both will almost certainly finish in the top 10 in their respective events. When was the last time Galen finished outside the top 10 in a 10,000? I doubt any of the other team members at 5,000 or 10,000 have a chance at a medal, but Hasan Mead or one of the Army guys might surprise and get a top 10 placing as well.
On the Women's side Huddle and Infield went 3-4 just last year in the 10,000 and Huddle is better this year. the competition may also be stronger, so the chance for a medal is probably 50/50 at best, but there were lots of years when the chances for an American medal at 10,000 were basically zero. The Women's 5,000 team might not have a legitimate medal contender with Huddle declining her spot, but I still don't think it is the weakest team ever.
coach deez nuts wrote:
Past performances do not count, only recent fitness. These teams are god awful, it would not surprise me if we don't get anyone into the 5000m final and no one finishes better than 10th in the 10000m. If not for Rupp the marathon team would also be one of the worst ever.
I assume you mean men's only because Huddle has a shot to medal in the 10K, although not as good as she had at worlds last year.
The mens team is disappointing as many of the guys just aren't in form right now and missed the team due to that, although Mead did run13 low at Pre this year.
If Rupp is truly focused on the marathon the mens side likely has no medal threats in the 5 or 10 but how is that any different than the past 20 years with the exception of 2012.
Lagat has no shot for those touting his 52 last lap. The top guys in the world can close that fast of 13 flat pace. Not saying the race will go 13 flat but what he did at the trials will scare absolutely 0 of the top 5K contenders.
Fjords and sandstorms wrote:
MarEn wrote:Exactly. Besides Kennedy & Kempainen the 90s distance squads were horribly soft and not world class. The marathon teams were awful, too. The results show it. Keep in mind we're returning the silver medalist this time around. That alone makes this year's team stronger than many of the past teams.
Todd Williams had some solid results. Plaatjes and Spence won WC medals. The women (Lynn Jennings, Patti Sue Plummer, Suzy F Hamilton) were all world class. The latter being erratic.
Yes, sorry, some folks ran some great race and we should all be proud of them. I was just thinking of our teams at the Olympic level and this team compared to past US teams. Responding to the OP, and based on those comparisons, it just seems we are sending better teams than he/she thinks.