OT 10K- 27:45 pace. Rupp & True, Mead, Lagat entering last lap together...

If Lagat is truly right on their heels (not adrift) he would likely scalp Mead but not Rupp and True in my opinion. But people have different views on who they think is better (True vs Mead).

I think True is better right now and Lagat has the Olympic experience/ferocity to take down Mead.

Pace going into last lap probably closer to 28:00. It will be painfully slow. Race will be won in the last 100-200m.

Rupp could just gap everyone mid race then hold on for the win. i do think 2016 Rupp would out kick 2016 Lagat if it came down to it.

I like Rupp, I think he is a great runner, but Lagat has beaten him into permanent submission when they are neck and neck near the finish of a race. For as long as its a kickers race, Rupp will continue to bend over w/o lube for Lagat.

Rupp crushes everyone with a 53. True hangs on and runs 56. Lagat in about 60. Mead no idea, somewhere around Lagat.

Let's get real wrote:

Rupp crushes everyone with a 53. True hangs on and runs 56. Lagat in about 60. Mead no idea, somewhere around Lagat.

You're seriously underestimating Mead

graceful_admin wrote:

Let's get real wrote:

Rupp crushes everyone with a 53. True hangs on and runs 56. Lagat in about 60. Mead no idea, somewhere around Lagat.

You're seriously underestimating Mead

Maybe. No idea what shape he's in right now.

Not sure...I think True would have a really good last lap given that he's got the fastest 1500 in the country at the moment. I think that Rupp and True would put some room on Lagat and Mead leading up to the bell, but it's hard to say who would be 3rd (Mead has great 1500 speed and ran 13:04 at Pre, while Lagat is almost always in the mix and is a master tactician when he's at his best). I think it'll be close but my prediction is True, Rupp and Lagat. I think that Mead will make the 5k team given how well he ran for 3k indoors and how fast he's run this year but I don't think he has the strength to beat Lagat over 10k just yet...plus I don't think Rupp is gonna run the 5 anyways. Jenkins would be a distant 5th place.

I WANT TO SEE KIP ON THAT TEAM !!!!!

Great person

Fantastic tactics

This is his last go around here so I am hoping for Bernard !

inthepdx wrote:

I like Rupp, I think he is a great runner, but Lagat has beaten him into permanent submission when they are neck and neck near the finish of a race. For as long as its a kickers race, Rupp will continue to bend over w/o lube for Lagat.

This is the olympic trials. Last time they faced off at the olympic trials, Rupp beat Lagat with a 52 last lap. Rupp hasn't lost an olympic trials since 08 at 5k, 10k, or marathon

We all know what rupp will do. 800m to go he will put the foot on the gas a lil, 59 on the penultimate lap, then run the last lap in 55-56 to run a last 800 in 1:54-55 for the win lagat won't want to go from that far out. A few yrs ago that 59 would do nothing to faze lagat but Father Time is in rupps favor, it will drop lagat in 2016. Only person I see stay with him is mead.

Rupp first, mead second. Third will Be a toss up of true lagat or Estrada

I do not see Rupp letting the pace go over 27:30. Why would you waste a massive aerobic engine built up from marathon training to see whether you can outkick everyone the last 200m? Mead and True look great at 5k, but are just not that strong over 10k. Lagat has not really shown himself to be that competitive at 10k.

Rupp for the win

Someone will always pick it up from 400

If they left it exact same pace for entire 24 laps Lagat to win

My prediction for the actual race

1Rupp

2 True

3 Mead

Racing 10K wrote:

OT 10K- 27:45 pace. Rupp & True, Mead, Lagat entering last lap together... What happens??

Knowledgeable fans will be scratching their heads wondering why Rupp didn't drop the hammer with 800 to go like he's done the previous seven years.

If they leave this to the last 400, Lagat outkicks everyone. Rupp won't leave it to the last 400. Rupp, Lagat, True make the team.

Let's get real wrote:

Rupp crushes everyone with a 53. True hangs on and runs 56. Lagat in about 60. Mead no idea, somewhere around Lagat.

Since 2012, when's the last time anybody other than Mo ran 53.anything in the last lap of a 3000, 2-mile, 5000, or 10,000?

Chris Derrick wins from the chase pack.

In this scenario, some posters have noted that the laps leading up to the final 400 will be fast. It's not like they're going to run a 65-66 with two laps to go.

If these fellas are at 27:45 pace with a lap to go, it will be part of a final mile well under 4:10. Rupp wins, Lagat is 4th. I give True the nod over Mead.

Last four laps in a 27:45 race? 66-63-60-BOOM!

Crikey heat 100 wrote:

Pace going into last lap probably closer to 28:00. It will be painfully slow. Race will be won in the last 100-200m.

So that extra 15s over 25 laps will make the race "painfully slow" huh?