3:57 is not even close to 3:53 (But go Drew!)

Seriously Folks wrote:

Do people on this forum have any idea of the astronomical difference between 3:57 and 3:53? I mean I love watching records be broken and if Drew can do it then more power to him but damn. Even Alan doing it took all the stars aligning, a great field, some luck and the greatest miler in the history of the world leading the race. And that was Alan Webb. If/when someone breaks the HS record, please realize how insanely special that is. Going 3:57—> 3:53 isn't the kind of progression you should expect.

On an unrelated note if Drew isn't burned out from his long season quite yet I'd love to see an attempt on LV's 8:29 2-mile record. I was at Camel City to watch Drew set the 3,000m record and it was awesome.

Webb was a lesser runner pr wise when he popped his 3:53. So enough with the "and that was Alan Webb" stupidity.

Alexa Efraimson improved her 1500 PR by an even greater amount (4:09.43 -> 4:03.39) in this very meet last year to break Mary Cain's 1500 HSR.

Long season?! He's raced 4 times, and no time that he raced was he going for any time in particular. His season has been 4 weeks. Calm yourself.

I agree 3:57 to 3:53 is astronomical. It would be incredible if he did it.

The millenials have no idea how good Alan Webb was.

DAalert... wrote:

Webb was a lesser runner pr wise when he popped his 3:53. So enough with the "and that was Alan Webb" stupidity.

"That was Alan Webb" is a recognition of what he turned out to be— the fastest American miler history. As more high schoolers go sub-4 it's not reasonable to expect every 3:57 runner to drop 4 seconds from their time in one race. The 2001 Bowerman Mile was incredibly rare and special which is my point. I hope Drew run's a 3:53 but if you think it's likely then go put some money on it and we'll see who the DA is...

but... wrote:

Long season?! He's raced 4 times, and no time that he raced was he going for any time in particular. His season has been 4 weeks. Calm yourself.

I agree 3:57 to 3:53 is astronomical. It would be incredible if he did it.

Perhaps "long season" isn't exactly accurate. What I'm referring to was how well he performed in multiple indoor meets earlier this year and I hope that doesn't prevent him from reaching his best possible peak late in the outdoor season.

Manbearpig wrote:

The millenials have no idea how good Alan Webb was.

Fact: Alan Webb is a millennial.

I believe you are trying to say "Generation Z" (Those born late 1990s-2010) have no idea how good Alan Webb was.

I was 14 when Webb broke Ryun's record, but I lived just 2 hours south of Webb, so he was a legend long before that run, and I honestly was not surprised to see him go well under 3:55.

3:57 in February to 3:53 in May, while also improving in the 800 and 3200, I don't think 3:53 is too much of a stretch.

Lenny Leonard wrote:

Manbearpig wrote:

The millenials have no idea how good Alan Webb was.

Fact: Alan Webb is a millennial.

I believe you are trying to say "Generation Z" (Those born late 1990s-2010) have no idea how good Alan Webb was.

I was 14 when Webb broke Ryun's record, but I lived just 2 hours south of Webb, so he was a legend long before that run, and I honestly was not surprised to see him go well under 3:55.

3:57 in February to 3:53 in May, while also improving in the 800 and 3200, I don't think 3:53 is too much of a stretch.

this man knows whats what.

Lenny Leonard wrote:

3:57 in February to 3:53 in May, while also improving in the 800 and 3200, I don't think 3:53 is too much of a stretch.

Hey, maybe 3:49 next year.

3:59i is even less close to 3:53.

Seriously Folks wrote:

Lenny Leonard wrote:

3:57 in February to 3:53 in May, while also improving in the 800 and 3200, I don't think 3:53 is too much of a stretch.

Hey, maybe 3:49 next year.

Not what I am saying.

In order to break 4:00, an overwhelming majority of runners would need to have the ability to go 1:52 in the 800m. The relationship between 800m and Mile ability is largely linear.

So what's the magic number for 3:53? Webb actually ran 1:47 the same season as his 3:53, so at 1:48, Hunter's approaching the limit.

As far as your 3:49 comment goes, I'd need to see a significant increase in performance at shorter distances to agree with you.

4 seconds at this level is a lot but if anyone can do it it's a high school kid. They basically sneeze and pick up 2 seconds on their mile time.

Plus, going indoor to outdoor there is usually an improvement.

Webb had a 3:59 PR going into the race chasing Ryun's 3:55 record. So he was not even close himself before the race.

And El G running 3:49 in that race didn't help Webb one bit as Webb was way back with a lap to go.

Way back. And behind record pace.

Webb was helped by the string of runners tying up and he just kept passing people.

Hunter may have a perfect scenario of runners he could stick to running 3:53 pace the whole way, which is a more efficient way to run it.

It's a matter of whether he is currently capable of 3:53.

Probably not. But his PRs are better than what Webb's were going into his 3:53 (Webb ran 1:47 after Pre).

Unlikely Hunter breaks the record. Probably doesn't have the speed. Alan ran 1:47 solo at states the week after Pre. Hunter is a second slower at 800 despite having competition the whole way and not even winning the race. If pushed Alan was probably capable of 1:47low at the 800. I could see Hunter maybe going under Ryun's time but breaking the record I give a 1 in 100 chance. Hunter has insane ability but just not quite as insane as Webb had.

Seriously Folks wrote:

Do people on this forum have any idea of the astronomical difference between 3:57 and 3:53?

Yes, Alan Webb did not run anywhere close to 3:57 (3:59 high) before popping 3:53.

you do realise outdoors is lot quicker than indoors because of the murderous rotational forces on the 1/2 sized indoor track ???

in '97, hicham ran 3'31.18i wr & outdoor mile of 3'44.90, worth 3'28.24 with 1.08 conversion

i have little doubt that hicham was in similar shape in both races, so conversion for 1500 or mile indoors shoud be

~ 3'31.18 / 3'28.24 = 1.013/1.014

the kid ran 3'57.1i -> with 1.013/1.014 conversion

~ 3'53.8 / 3'54.0

the kid was in 3'53-high/3'54-flat outdoor shape weeks ago

i expect him to blast a 3'52+ perhaps even into 3'51s if he keeps his nerve + conditions not too windy + good even pace & he knocks out steady 58s

so your basing your logic on things that don't make any sense, like assuming El G was in the same shape indoors as outdoors one year, which surely wasn't true, and for some reason that applies to Hunter how?

calculo wrote:

you do realise outdoors is lot quicker than indoors because of the murderous rotational forces on the 1/2 sized indoor track ???

in '97, hicham ran 3'31.18i wr & outdoor mile of 3'44.90, worth 3'28.24 with 1.08 conversion

i have little doubt that hicham was in similar shape in both races, so conversion for 1500 or mile indoors shoud be

~ 3'31.18 / 3'28.24 = 1.013/1.014

the kid ran 3'57.1i -> with 1.013/1.014 conversion

~ 3'53.8 / 3'54.0

the kid was in 3'53-high/3'54-flat outdoor shape weeks ago

i expect him to blast a 3'52+ perhaps even into 3'51s if he keeps his nerve + conditions not too windy + good even pace & he knocks out steady 58s

He blasted a 3:58. Woo. Terrible pacing, so I still give him credit, but he had zero gear change in the last quarter.

Well people can finally stop overhyping slag and hunter. They are two all time greats but nothing compared to Webb. Seems laughable now that some people actually thought the record was in any real danger.