I say yes if it's, at best, moderately paced. If the winning time is over under 27:20, his chances will be slim. I think he can outkick everyone, in a moderately paced race on the right day, outside of Farah.
I say yes if it's, at best, moderately paced. If the winning time is over under 27:20, his chances will be slim. I think he can outkick everyone, in a moderately paced race on the right day, outside of Farah.
Lagat isn't the same finisher he was 2-3 years ago. Father Time is undefeated.
Finishing ability is irrelevant, even if the winning time is in the mid 27's you need to be able to run a 10k well under 27 minutes to have the reserve energy to kick for a medal. I don't believe Lagat ever had that ability. It would be interesting to see if he could finish top 3 in the US though.
Lagat could run at least 27:30's right now, at the age of 42. He is about 20 seconds behind his best 5k days right now, and more like 30 seconds behind what he could have run at his peak in the right race (he was, no doubt, capable of mid 12:40's). You don't think he could have run under 27 at his peak if he aimed to do so? I honestly think he was capable of at least 26:40's...probably faster. He may be capable of low 27's this year (as well as low 13's for 5K) when he's peaked, in a race that calls for it...but probably not under 27.
I'll begin by saying that I am less impressed by Lagat's run than many others - so you're telling me that his debut 10K was slower than an end-of-career Bob Kennedy and Alan Webb? However, the fact that he won with a decent close gives me more optimism...
Remember that at the Olympics, there will be 3 Kenyans and 3 Ethiopians, and assuredly not all of them will have peak performances. Furthermore, although generally a kick in 10K has more to do with endurance than speed, Lagat has shown over the years that he has both. I think he would be a 60% chance to make the U.S. team, but then probably a 50% chance to medal.
I think top 3 in US.
In Rio, no way. He'll behind Rupp, so where do you think Rupp could finish?
You are thinking, he's not necessarily behind Rupp in US or world, since he can kick. Rupp, and certainly Kam, etc won't be outkicking him per se but simply running 24 laps faster than Bernie can. So, he closes in 54 whereas the leaders close in 57 but were 32 seconds ahead of him at the bell. The best kicker wins if in the lead at the end but the world's greatest kicker can't make up more than 15 seconds over an average kicker like Kam (or Rupp in US).
Even at 41 years old, I don't see Lagat being gapped in a championship race. If it plays out like a typical championship race of the past 5 years, Lagat is there with a lap to go. If the Kenyans do push the pace into the 26:40 pace range, as has been speculated, then, yes, I could see Lagat being gapped because I don't think he'd go with the pace.
But he was gapped in a 3k two months ago. He can't hang for 4 more miles
I would put his chances to medal at less than 10%. The race in Rio will look more similar to the half marathon championships this year. Its going to be at a blistering pace and by 5K there will be no more than 6 in contention and Lagat will not be among them. By 6K it will be down to four in contention and by that time Lagat will be at least 30 secs down from the leaders. The best he will do is top 7 if he sticks to an even race. If he tries to go with the leaders, it will be a DNF for Lagat. My two cents!
Who else? wrote:
I'll begin by saying that I am less impressed by Lagat's run than many others - so you're telling me that his debut 10K was slower than an end-of-career Bob Kennedy and Alan Webb? However, the fact that he won with a decent close gives me more optimism...
Remember that at the Olympics, there will be 3 Kenyans and 3 Ethiopians, and assuredly not all of them will have peak performances. Furthermore, although generally a kick in 10K has more to do with endurance than speed, Lagat has shown over the years that he has both. I think he would be a 60% chance to make the U.S. team, but then probably a 50% chance to medal.
Are we so sure he's even going to do the 10,000 at the Trials?
He should take advantage of his situation and just clean house in all masters records 800 on up.
Not a chance. Rupp is certainly ahead of him and his shot at a medal is not great.
I don't think he's at all a lock to make the US team. He has a good chance though certainly.
potential untapped? wrote:
I think top 3 in US.
In Rio, no way. He'll behind Rupp, so where do you think Rupp could finish?
You are thinking, he's not necessarily behind Rupp in US or world, since he can kick. Rupp, and certainly Kam, etc won't be outkicking him per se but simply running 24 laps faster than Bernie can. So, he closes in 54 whereas the leaders close in 57 but were 32 seconds ahead of him at the bell. The best kicker wins if in the lead at the end but the world's greatest kicker can't make up more than 15 seconds over an average kicker like Kam (or Rupp in US).
Are you saying that a 41 year old Lagat runs the last lap 3 seconds faster than the rest of the runners on this planet?
*facepalm*
potential untapped? wrote:
He'll behind Rupp
He'll whoop Rupp's behind all right, just like he always does
He only closed in 58....dunno if daddy can still kick.
Rupp likely wont run the 10k in Rio and just reserve himself for the marathon. Why so... Alberto has already indicated the speed did not come back for the indoor season, and he's already questioning the outdoor season. Also its pointless to finish a mediocre 5th in the 10k, to only come back in the marathon and finish outside the top 3. Better to put all your beans in 1 basket. The double is suicidal, get ready as the first half of the RIO marathon will be a steamer and if Rupp show the slightest fatigue from 10k, well he's in for a long morning run.
No. Even if the race goes 27:20, it will be a hard 27:20 with surges, hot weather, and a last mile in 4:10. No way Lagat can hang with guys who are in 26:45 shape. No. Just no.
jungleroy59 wrote:
No. Even if the race goes 27:20, it will be a hard 27:20 with surges, hot weather, and a last mile in 4:10. No way Lagat can hang with guys who are in 26:45 shape. No. Just no.
Why do you expect it to be hot in Rio?
From his post-race interview, I'd guess we will be seeing Lagat in the 5000m at Trials not the 10000m.
Have to see what form everybody is in as Trials approach but, come race day, Hill, True, Chelimo, Jenkins, Heath, Mead, Kipchirchir could all be on the start line with capability of beating him.
Hahahahahahaha. No way.