Another shameless Half Marathon Prediction Thread

Title says it all. 27. Male. 6ft ~160 lbs. Been running year round ~2.5 years after ~5 years of primarily cycling. More fast twitch oriented (soccer player, high jumper/sprinter in high school)

Upcoming race is a pancake flat, out and back course on 5/7.

Road PR's, all from last year:

5k: 17:24

8k: 29:00

10k: 36:49 (have only raced one 10k)

15k: 57:30 (this race felt VERY comfortable)

HM: 1:23:16 (net downhill course but run in fairly warm, humid conditions ~60 dew point)

Highlights from training the past couple of months:

4/27: 2x5k in 19:27 and 19:29 (~6:15 ave pace for both) with 1k jog rest in 5'; 20k total for workout. Was a fairly hard workout but I was not all out.

4/17: 4x3k in 11:48, 11:47, 11:41, 11:46 (~6:18 ave for all reps) w/ ~500m jog rest in 2:50 between all reps. 20k total for workout. Fairly comfortable.

4/9: 18mile long run/race in 2:02:54 (6:50 pace) w/ ~2.5minute negative split. Rolling/moderate hills. First 9 miles @ 7:00 pace, last 9 miles @ 6:40 pace into a slight headwind. Aerobically felt really strong. Very minimal fuel (2 very small shots of gatorade and 1 small shot of water). 20.5 mile total for day.

3/26: 15k race in 58:26 (~6:15 pace). VERY hilly, up and down entire race. Aerobically felt strong. No fuel. 15 miles total for day.

3/12: 8k race in 29:01 (~5:50 pace). Only 1 second off my PR w/ primarily base/longer distance focused training and on a hillier course.

Block of training start mid-December after ~2.5 weeks off with most weeks at 50mpw, 2 weeks @ 60+ and one week @ 70+. I have done 7 total runs of 15 miles+.

I'm thinking ~1:22---1:22:30 should be doable. What do you think?

sub 1:21. be a man. go for it. that's only 6:10 pacefor all of the slow silly miles you're running, why wouldn't you at least try. you'll surprise yourself. you'r times are not good, so might as well give i a shot and toughen up and try to make some progress. your times also do not indicate fast twitch anything. if you don't get it, you can try next time. not like you're trying to break 1:10 or something. your goal should be 6:00 pace in one year. i'm serious.once you start doing faster workouts you'll realize they aren't intimidating. i picked up running again at age 30 after 5 yrs off and thought my good days were behind me. i did a 5k at 5:30 pace, then thought, "wow, i might be able to do an 8k at this pace". Then 10k and now my half marathon pace is 5:25 and my marathon pace is 5:47. i just started seeing how you have to suffer in a few wrkts/races and then you'll make these big jumps by believing. you need that too.do you carry a shot glass for the gatorade and water or is that your preferred metric for liquid measurement?also, your workouts are so timid. why not do 5-6 x mile at 5:45-50 pace every other week or 4 x 2 mile @ HMP on 2:00 rest (best HM indicator workout I know)? Do 6-8 x 1000m @ 5k-10k pace. do 4-6 x 200m fast twice a week after workoutsyou are running slow, long stuff but say you are fast twitch? why not do fast twitch stuff? Have some fun. Get faster. Your speed will come out more when you run faster, therefore making half marathon pace feel easier. it's a fairly simple conceptbased on your post, you fret and over analyze things.just go out in 6:00-6:10 pace and give it a shot

Seriously mate? wrote:
Title says it all. 27. Male. 6ft ~160 lbs. Been running year round ~2.5 years after ~5 years of primarily cycling. More fast twitch oriented (soccer player, high jumper/sprinter in high school)
Upcoming race is a pancake flat, out and back course on 5/7.
Road PR's, all from last year:
5k: 17:24
8k: 29:00
10k: 36:49 (have only raced one 10k)
15k: 57:30 (this race felt VERY comfortable)
HM: 1:23:16 (net downhill course but run in fairly warm, humid conditions ~60 dew point)
Highlights from training the past couple of months:
4/27: 2x5k in 19:27 and 19:29 (~6:15 ave pace for both) with 1k jog rest in 5'; 20k total for workout. Was a fairly hard workout but I was not all out.
4/17: 4x3k in 11:48, 11:47, 11:41, 11:46 (~6:18 ave for all reps) w/ ~500m jog rest in 2:50 between all reps. 20k total for workout. Fairly comfortable.
4/9: 18mile long run/race in 2:02:54 (6:50 pace) w/ ~2.5minute negative split. Rolling/moderate hills. First 9 miles @ 7:00 pace, last 9 miles @ 6:40 pace into a slight headwind. Aerobically felt really strong. Very minimal fuel (2 very small shots of gatorade and 1 small shot of water). 20.5 mile total for day.
3/26: 15k race in 58:26 (~6:15 pace). VERY hilly, up and down entire race. Aerobically felt strong. No fuel. 15 miles total for day.
3/12: 8k race in 29:01 (~5:50 pace). Only 1 second off my PR w/ primarily base/longer distance focused training and on a hillier course.
Block of training start mid-December after ~2.5 weeks off with most weeks at 50mpw, 2 weeks @ 60+ and one week @ 70+. I have done 7 total runs of 15 miles+.
I'm thinking ~1:22---1:22:30 should be doable. What do you think?

Another shameless Half Marathon Prediction Thread

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