Lagat has verbally committed to doing the 10000m at Oly Trials - top two spots are now gone to Rupp + Lagat.

@CDerrickRun

His last lap isn't what it used to be. If True and Mead are in 13:00/27:0x shape as they well could be, they are unlikely to let it come down to a last lap anyway.

He would still need the A standard, and what is it? 27:45? I'm sure that's in Lagat's range, however, it's probably fast enough that his kick would be neutered.

True is apparently injured (didn't he pull out of NYC half?) Chris Derrick would be a reasonable bet, and probably even Ritz, who has been in this exact situation before and came through.

50 Shades Of Gray Area wrote:

His last lap isn't what it used to be. If True and Mead are in 13:00/27:0x shape as they well could be, they are unlikely to let it come down to a last lap anyway.

Lagat just beat mead over 5k just this last weekend. I would be surprised if an OTC guy even factored in when it really counted anyway. I agree with your mention of True, however.

I really don't think True will be running the 10k at the trials. Last year he said that he does not like it very much and would much rather put everything into the 5k. I think the case will be the same this year.

There's a lot of other guys that could beat Lagat too. Korir and Kipchirchir just ran under 28:00 the other day (Army guys like you mentioned). chelimo. chelanga. Ritz. Derrick. Some of the marathons guys that didn't qualify. Cheserek if he gets citizenship.I doubt it, but Fernandez could even makes some big gains in the next few months if he stays healthy as he is a freak talent. Blankenship, hahalotta guys...

TruthSayer wrote:

Watching the Carlsbad 5000 post race interview he talks about doing the 10k at the trials.

I just don't see him getting beaten in the last lap. It's over boys - top two spots are taken by Rupp and Lagat. Who will get 3rd? US Army Kenyans? Ben True?

I assume a bunch of guys, including Lagat, will have to run Payton Jordan in order to get their Oly qualifier?

oh please wrote:

his kick would be neutered.

I think that would be grounds for disqualification.

TruthSayer wrote:

Watching the Carlsbad 5000 post race interview he talks about doing the 10k at the trials.

I just don't see him getting beaten in the last lap. It's over boys - top two spots are taken by Rupp and Lagat. Who will get 3rd? US Army Kenyans? Ben True?

First of all we'll see if he actually does it. I took his comments to mean more he was looking into doing it, not a sure thing yet.

Second he didn't even make the 5K team yet year. He is no longer the world class kicker he was and is far from a lock.

Bernard Lagat would have NO CHANCE to make the Olympic Team. Do you think the 10,000m is a joke? Lagat could have easily made the 10,000m team in 2012, but the last 4 years have seen Lagat decline to the point that he is no longer a threat to make the team. This is the way it is. Nothing can change that. Fernandez actually does have a small chance. Lagat does not.

I would bet large money against Lagat being in Rio in any event.

Of course Lagat has a chance and I would say that chance is much better than Fernandez's. I do agree he is probably not a favorite at this point but that may change by the trials.

Daddy can still kick, in the 10000m.

if the trials race is a sit and kick affair then Lagat has a chance, but if it is fast from the gun, and a 27:15-27:30 pace then he will not be the top three.

No Olympic Trials race will be run in 27:15. There is no one fit enough at the moment to take it out in sub-13:10, nor will the conditions be conducive to that sort've pace.

cl wrote:

No Olympic Trials race will be run in 27:15. There is no one fit enough at the moment to take it out in sub-13:10, nor will the conditions be conducive to that sort've pace.

Seriously. No way it is even close to 27:15 unless Rupp decides for some reason that he wants it to be, which he won't.

cl wrote:

No Olympic Trials race will be run in 27:15.

CORRECT

cl wrote:

There is no one fit enough at the moment to take it out in sub-13:10...

NOT RELEVANT. Since when is a sub-13:10 first 5000 necessary for a 27:15? Sub-13:10 is world record pace (by a fair bit) for crying out loud!

But still, you are correct. There will be nothing close to 27:15 at the trials.

and this is why I still lurk on letsrun. thank you AN, you're always good for some solid wit-

Avocado's Number wrote:

oh please wrote:

his kick would be neutered.

I think that would be grounds for disqualification.

trutherer wrote:

and this is why I still lurk on letsrun. thank you AN, you're always good for some solid wit-

Avocado's Number wrote:

I think that would be grounds for disqualification.

:)