Will Los Angeles based Tesla Motors be able to deliver at $35K by 2018?

I predict massive multi-year delays. Price may go up a bit, but should be OK.

I'd be more impressed if Musk could do all this without sucking on the teet of big government.

Tesla's headquarters is in Palo Alto, California, and its factory is in Fremont, California. It has what it describes as "satellite offices" in Los Angeles and Amsterdam.

HowardDean wrote:

I'd be more impressed if Musk could do all this without sucking on the teet of big government.

LOL. Oil must be at $400 before Tesla is profitable.

400 miles north wrote:

Tesla's headquarters is in Palo Alto, California, and its factory is in Fremont, California. It has what it describes as "satellite offices" in Los Angeles and Amsterdam.

Right you are. PA, south of Frisco.

HowardDean wrote:

I predict massive multi-year delays. Price may go up a bit, but should be OK.

I'd be more impressed if Musk could do all this without sucking on the teet of big government.

American Automotive companies have been sucking much longer, and gotten a more money.

Federal government lost $9.26B on auto rescue

...the U.S. Treasury Department said it recovered $70.43 billion of the $79.69 billion it gave to General Motors Corp., Chrysler LLC and auto lending arms Ally Financial Inc. and Chrysler Financial. The government was repaid through a combination of stock sales, partial loan repayments, dividends and interest payments.

Tesla will be successful due to assistance from the LA aerospace, vehicle, and manufacturing engineers, the best engineers in the world

NASA JPL, Los Angeles wrote:

Tesla will be successful due to assistance from the LA aerospace, vehicle, and manufacturing engineers, the best engineers in the world

....and the hard-working, beer-drinking folks of Northern Nevada, crankin' out the batteries at the Gigafactory!!!

As soon as Telsa cranks out a 4x4 truck that can go at least 500 miles on a charge, I am on it like flies on poop. (500 miles in the distance from Reno to Las Vegas and also a roundtrip from Reno to Levi's Stadium)

Delorean for Millenials.

The deep cycle batteries in any electric car are the missing link. They are marginal when new, and degrade exponentially. Musk has not solved this-indeed no one has.

Hybrid's batteries last longer because they don't get emptied as much.

The delays won't kill the company, because the customers that just plunked down a G are true believers. The company will hit a wall when these true believers plunk down the other 34K 3 to 5 years from now, and then realize the cost of ownership is much greater when they have to replace the batteries after 40 thousand miles. That's a big bill for a car that's a couple years old.

There is a limited number of people who pay 35K for a car-and they are a demanding lot. These aren't Volkswagen Jetta buyers.

Voice of Reason wrote:

There is a limited number of people who pay 35K for a car-and they are a demanding lot. These aren't Volkswagen Jetta buyers.

But, the 2017 jetta is expected to cost $35k as well...

Big Suckers wrote:

HowardDean wrote:

I predict massive multi-year delays. Price may go up a bit, but should be OK.

I'd be more impressed if Musk could do all this without sucking on the teet of big government.

American Automotive companies have been sucking much longer, and gotten a more money.

Federal government lost $9.26B on auto rescue

...the U.S. Treasury Department said it recovered $70.43 billion of the $79.69 billion it gave to General Motors Corp., Chrysler LLC and auto lending arms Ally Financial Inc. and Chrysler Financial. The government was repaid through a combination of stock sales, partial loan repayments, dividends and interest payments.

Oh certainly. Another massive failure brought about by a forced government takeover funded by American taxpayers.

Voice of Reason wrote:

The deep cycle batteries in any electric car are the missing link. They are marginal when new, and degrade exponentially. Musk has not solved this-indeed no one has.

They certainly do not degrade exponentially.

Voice of Reason wrote:

Delorean for Millenials.

The deep cycle batteries in any electric car are the missing link. They are marginal when new, and degrade exponentially. Musk has not solved this-indeed no one has.

Hybrid's batteries last longer because they don't get emptied as much.

The delays won't kill the company, because the customers that just plunked down a G are true believers. The company will hit a wall when these true believers plunk down the other 34K 3 to 5 years from now, and then realize the cost of ownership is much greater when they have to replace the batteries after 40 thousand miles. That's a big bill for a car that's a couple years old.

There is a limited number of people who pay 35K for a car-and they are a demanding lot. These aren't Volkswagen Jetta buyers.

Wow.... You are an absolute moron, how is it possible to be this stupid?

While on Teslas, a friend asked his son over dinner how many miles you'd have to drive a Tesla compared to a $54,000 BMW to break even in gas savings.

I showed him how to do the math on a napkin. He surprised his dad a few minutes later by telling him it was about 360,000 miles. That was when gas was about $2.50/gallon so it would be a lot more miles now.

fisky wrote:

While on Teslas, a friend asked his son over dinner how many miles you'd have to drive a Tesla compared to a $54,000 BMW to break even in gas savings.

I showed him how to do the math on a napkin. He surprised his dad a few minutes later by telling him it was about 360,000 miles. That was when gas was about $2.50/gallon so it would be a lot more miles now.

Please, enlighten me with this math.

fisky wrote:

While on Teslas, a friend asked his son over dinner how many miles you'd have to drive a Tesla compared to a $54,000 BMW to break even in gas savings.

I showed him how to do the math on a napkin. He surprised his dad a few minutes later by telling him it was about 360,000 miles. That was when gas was about $2.50/gallon so it would be a lot more miles now.

Just working backward from your math, it looks like you assumed the Tesla was $30k more than the BMW and divided that number by $2.50 and multiplied by 30 to get 360,000 miles.

This doesn't factor in the much lower cost of maintenance for the Tesla, the tax credits, or the fact that you get more car with the Tesla.

That said, no one buying a $75,000 car is buying it for practical purposes. They're buying it because it's what they want. A $75,000 Tesla becomes more cost effective than a $75,000 BMW the second it drives off the lot.

Tesla's Wikipedia page used to show how much charging a Tesla costs to drive it 15,000 mi/yr. It's surprisingly high (again, if you aren't using free charging everywhere). It was like $5-600/yr. Gas at current prices would cost $1250 with a 30 mpg car. If you're driving it 40-50 mpg hybrid, it's $8.33.

How long until Tesla installs solar panels on the roof to help with recharging?

Boaty McBoatface wrote:

How long until Tesla installs solar panels on the roof to help with recharging?

Other companies have been testing this already:

It's just another thing that certainly won't make the cars any more affordable.

Of course they will. They are already building far more complicated cars. The model 3 is a bare bones version of the high end sedan with a few tweaks to help it with the mass market audience. They have almost 300k people sign up to pre-order the car. That will keep capital flowing to Tesla and help smooth out any logistical bumps in the road.

Will they be able to fill all 300k orders? Probably not. But that is a good problem to have at this point. For now, people will wait. Later down the road when there are comparable alternatives from other manufacturers, any delays will be death for Tesla.

Teslas are toys. People buy them because they have crazy acceleration without any gears shifting. They are fun to drive and are unique. They do not make sense economically, but no vehicle priced about $30k makes sense economically.

Tesla's main problems are that it is currently betting on a battery design that is equivalent to a flip phone in terms of state of the art. There are huge advances in lithium ion batteries in the pipeline that will radically transform battery powered vehicles. Everyone buying a model 3 in 2017 may have an antiquated battery system by 2023.

Tesla's other problem is that they want to skip the franchised dealer system. Most states are reluctant to repeal franchised dealer laws that require manufacturers to sell through a franchised deal. Musk really should just give up on his crusade for factory stores and just go with franchised dealers.