The guy have been running for 3 years without XC or track background 31 years old 5"9" 153lbs. He ran his first marathon in 3:05 in 2014, his second marathon in 2:42 in 2015. Can he go close to 2:20 in October with appropriate training?
The guy have been running for 3 years without XC or track background 31 years old 5"9" 153lbs. He ran his first marathon in 3:05 in 2014, his second marathon in 2:42 in 2015. Can he go close to 2:20 in October with appropriate training?
No he can't. The jump from 3:05 to 2:42 is miniscule compared to the jump from 2:42 to 2:20. I know time wise it's less but it gets exponentially faster to improve the faster you get.
The guy clearly has some natural talent but 2:20 is a sub elite time and you're guy hasn't indicated anything close to that. It's unreasonable to expect linear improvement in times.
What would be a realistic goal for the athlete?
Not a chance. No way. It's exponential. Going from 4:00 to 3:15 'be easier.
Only if he ran the 2:42 at a BMI of 25 or something.
2:20 is a whole other level. 2:42 is still hobby runner personally. 2:20, you are living running to a whole other level.
BMI of 22-23
The answer is almost certainly no, but there's no harm in trying. Definitely can get near 2:30.
You won't know until you try. You might end up like Steve Way.
Yes you can
I went from 2:44 in May 1989 to 2:23 in November 1990. I could have probably run 2.19 in that race but went out too fast...(32:00 at 10km). If I can do it your friend can too. The key is to make sacrifices in the rest of your life.
artud2000 wrote:
What would be a realistic goal for the athlete?
Are you his coach?
Surely you are the person who observes all his training, the style with which he runs, knows his strengths and weaknesses, his training volume and potential ability. You are the one with all the pieces in front of you and should be able to come up with decent targets that reflect the athlete.
Why don't you try and not focusing on distant time targets and instead work on smaller intermediate goals, with a long term plan focusing on a major race?
If the race in October is on a much faster course, maybe.
That Steve Way is some runner . Look at his age and what he's achieved so quickly. Makes you wonder what he could have done if he was running in his 20s
If he crashed in his 2:42 race, sure he can go 2:20 in a perfect race.
it's all about perfection wrote:
If he crashed in his 2:42 race, sure he can go 2:20 in a perfect race.
Yeah we are missing details. Tell me he is a 30:30 10k runner who was running 2:30 pace for 20 miles and died, and we are looking a different runner than a 34 min guy who ran an even paced race.
And obviously training matters. 2:42 off 40 mpw is one thing. 2:42 off 120 mpw is another. First guy will find it easy to up the training. The second guy is pretty maxed out.
Or maybe the 2:42 was an uphill marathon in 90 degree weather. Running 2:20 in a flat marathon in 60 degree weather might be doable.
As long as he's not Kenyan. There are things that Americans can do.
What kind of mileage did he run the 2:42 off of? If it was still relatively low mileage he has a chance to drop it quite a bit more. If he was already pushing his limits in training, getting lower will be much more difficult.
I have seen a lot of very solid runners crash out at 2:30 in the marathon. That is a real time barrier. It would be highly unlikely for a pure amateur (no college track XC) to even get down to 2:30s after only three marathons. Every marathoner I know who has run sub 2:30 was a strong collegiate runner.
I know some of you get pleasure out of these kinds of questions, but all answers that say yes or no are crap.
Just because someone has ever done this or gotten close to doing this has no bearing on whether your buddy can do it too. We have no idea how close to his ceiling he is or how close any success story was. What was the training like? Who was fat or not when starting? How motivated are these people? Were there other bad habits that were also ended that contributed to a good improvement, and then, when all that is said and done, you STILL do not have enough information to make a reasonable prediction.
Everyone responds to training differently. Maybe he will get injured, maybe he only gets slightly better with more training, maybe 15 miles is really his ultimate distance and so he can't get much better at the marathon.
Too many people here think that if you do x for y amount of time that you will achieve z. If only that were true.
I went from 3:20 to 2:20 in less than a year. It's possible! Think BIG! Run BIG!
MAYEROFF wrote:
Yes you can
I went from 2:44 in May 1989 to 2:23 in November 1990. I could have probably run 2.19 in that race but went out too fast...(32:00 at 10km). If I can do it your friend can too. The key is to make sacrifices in the rest of your life.
I think we need some context here. Did you vastly underperform in your 2:44? Did you go out to fast and die? Were you barely training? Did you run the 2:23 on a way faster course with better runners pushing you?
A normal development curve doesn't go this way for most people so what were the reasons for your huge improvement.
Metabolic talent is required for 2:20. The only way to know is to try. It is not about trying hard. Simon Bairu has run 27:2x and kept crashing and burning in the marathon. His best was 218/19?
It has been done. Your friend should lose weight. At least 20-25 lbs. This will help.