wait a min,.... y'all be talkin as if only Farah, Kamworror, and Karoki are well clear of the rest....doesn't a 59:06 ETH man, Guye Adola, who out-kicked Kamworror (when running 59:06) deserve a mention at least? I wouldn't be surprised if this guy takes down the field, like Priscah Jeptoo took down Defar and T. Dibaba in 2013 when we all thought the race was going to be between Defar and Dibaba. Just watch!
1. Guye Adola ETH 59:06 course record
2. Geoffrey Kamworor KEN 59:07
3. Mosinet Geremew ETH 59:11
4. Cyprian Kotut KEN 59:12
5. Stanley Biwott KEN 59:18
6. Stephen Kibet KEN 59:21
worldhalf wrote:
wait a min,.... y'all be talkin as if only Farah, Kamworror, and Karoki are well clear of the rest....doesn't a 59:06 ETH man, Guye Adola, who out-kicked Kamworror (when running 59:06) deserve a mention at least? I wouldn't be surprised if this guy takes down the field, like Priscah Jeptoo took down Defar and T. Dibaba in 2013 when we all thought the race was going to be between Defar and Dibaba. Just watch!
that likely was in brutally hot/humid conditions in dehli with crap quality air, despite the quick 59'06
don't be fooled by quick winning time, the top-4 being all close & next coupla guys not too far behind indicate it was a tactical race with all waiting for the kick which the ethiopian won
i highly suspect that Kamwo didn't take it out hard from long way out because of conditions &/or confident in his kick which has been good
that was a Kamwo in good but not great shape
Looks like huge wind & rain could ruin clocking.
We can only hope that the majority of race as pointed out gets the following 25mph wind which will help clockings with the math showing
~ 5 miles against wind
~ 8 miles with wind
So perhaps enough extra distance with wind to counter lesser distance run against wind.
Then there is severe wind-chill with 54F + 26mph winds likely to make temperatures effectively in the 40s
( 2 different conversions here :
http://www.onlineconversion.com/windchill.htm
)
That leaves the rain :
That could completely wreck all plans as rain smashing into them horizontally because of 25mph winds, even if for only 5 miles will severely wreck them...
Kamwo at his peak is in huge WR shape for 1/2M on flat course + good conditionsThis from 3+y ago when just a pup :http://www.iaaf.org/news/report/kabuu-and-kipsang-triumph-in-high-quality-rac
Kenyans Lucy Kabuu and Geoffrey Kamworor turned the world Half-marathon rankings on their head at the RAK Half Marathon, which produced some of the greatest races ever in terms of depth.
In ideal conditions and a 13-degree start, Ethiopian Feyisa Lelisa led the men’s field out with a 50m advantage when passing 4km in a conservative 12:25
With the lead seven clocking 14:05 through 5km and 28:13 at 10km, fast times looked unlikely, but Geoffrey Mutai, who had been presented with the 2012 AIMS Asics Athlete of the Year the previous afternoon, pushed up the pace to head the pack past 12km, with world junior cross-country champion Kamworor, Lelisa and Stanley Biwott, the 2012 Paris Half marathon winner, on his shoulder.
Mutai remained the driver of the pack when taking them through 15km in 42:15. As the pace increased Lelisa fell back towards the second group led by Stephen Kibet just after 17km.
With the second 10km covered in 27:50, the 20km mark was reached in 56:03 and no quarter asked or given as they sprinted the long straight to the finish
Kamworor, who had won the Kenyan Police Cross Country Championships in January ahead of Mutai, edged ahead to take the tape in 58:54, with Biwott just two seconds adrift and Mutai third in 58:58. It was the first time that three runners have cracked 59 minutes in the same race and doubled the previous number of sub-59 performances over the previous six editions of the race.
The Kaptaget-based 20 year-old was only two seconds outside the course record of 58:52 set by Patrick Makau in 2009
the 4k split is misprint & shoud clearly be 11'25 for leader with the pack ~ 50m behind means they went thru 4k in ~ 9s behind at that pathetic pace for
~ 11'34
( 14'27 pace for 5k )
now, rest of article said nothing much happened apart from a gleaned slight speeding up until Joffrey took over at ~ 12k
therefore from 4k to 12k or 8km of race the pace hadn't picked up much, so all the fast running was in last 21.095 - 12 = 9.095k of race
here is math :
they ran the last 21.095 - 4k = 17.0975km of race in
~ 58'54 - 11'34 = 47'20
proportion that up to 21.0975 ->
58'24 !!!
therefore, Kamwo ran last 17.0975k of 21.0975k race at WR pace & they only ran hard in the last 9.095k or just over 1/2 of remaining distance !!!
flat-out from gun-to tape, that was likely
~ 58-flat !!!
Kamwo's win in '14 was also hugely impressive :
http://www.iaaf.org/news/report/mens-report-world-half-marathon-2014-copenhag
the article unfortunately doesn't give the splits but i recall canova stating it was an awesome run with jogging at start & then Kamwo blasted away taking some guys with him whom he dropped
someone can dig up article or check for splits on web
vid of most of Kamwo's epic '13 RAK run on youtube in 2 parts :
check out a guy probably in 58-flat shape :
interesting possibilty about karoke's 1500 shape :http://www.letsrun.com/news/2016/03/bedan-karoki-favorite-world-half-champs-expect-big-years-asbel-kiprop-ronald-kwemoi-news-man-ground-kenya/run on crap dirt track :http://cdn.letsrun.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Busted-Lane-One-Edited-e1458665718297.jpgthe Letsun reporter :
Karoki’s winning time of 3:42 was the fastest of the day, thanks to a devastating 57-second final lap. The next-fastest time was 3:43, ran by Timothy Kitum in the third heat. But before anyone attempts to snub Karoki’s performance, please know this: the track in Nakuru boasts a dirt surface with a broken rock railing and holes in lane one. It is also at an altitude of 6,000 feet
Letsrun preview :
Now, we know what you are thinking: 3:42 and 13:38 don’t sound that impressive. But remember Nakuru is at 6,070 feet of altitude. According to the NCAA altitude converter, Karoki would be credited with running a 3:35.1
that crap dirt track has to be worth at least 1s/lap
therefore karoke's sea-level shape on synthetic on this basis is
3'35.1 - 3.75s =
3'31.35 !!!
with unknown pacing/drafting/wide running on bend ( wide bend running likely certain in that 25+ man field ) !!!
probably 3'30 at worst if you accept ncaa conversion
karoke has clearly worked on speed to try & counter mo's "3'28" ability
ventolin^3 wrote:
Letsrun preview :
:
"Now, we know what you are thinking: 3:42 and 13:38 don’t sound that impressive. But remember Nakuru is at 6,070 feet of altitude. According to the NCAA altitude converter, Karoki would be credited with running a 3:35.1"
that crap dirt track has to be worth at least 1s/lap
therefore karoke's sea-level shape on synthetic on this basis is
3'35.1 - 3.75s =
3'31.35 !!!
with unknown pacing/drafting/wide running on bend ( wide bend running likely certain in that 25+ man field ) !!!
probably 3'30 at worst if you accept ncaa conversion
karoke has clearly worked on speed to try & counter mo's "3'28" ability
off topic but relevant :
Letsrun are accepting NCAA altitude conversions for kenyans
we have solid evidence for this :
Asbel last year ran an auto-time 3'36.09 at 7,000' which NCAA converts to prelim 3'28.0
that is a completely expected number as just few days later he ran that outrageous eugene mile where he nearly made up ~ 15m ( including extra run on bends ) on Souly on last lap for 3'51+
& of course he went on to run 3'26.6 off too--fast start & crap drafting from runt which ran out well before bell
this also means Keino's incredible 3'34.9 at ~ 7,400' in mexico-'68 has to be considered a prelim 3'27+ run which was after heats & 5k runs & most of a 10k !!!
Kamworor's splits in Copenhagen
14:30
28:41 (14:11)
42:26 (13:45)
56:13 (13:47)
59:08 (2:55)
Or is this gonna be it...
Not long to go now, got the popcorn out, done my own training... the wind up here wasn't too bad. Latest reading for Cardiff I can see from the Met Office has 11mph gusting 30mph. On wunderground.com Cardiff currently looks breezy but no worse?
It is pretty windy here in Cardiff. Gusts are very strong and will be tough for first 4 or so miles. When the gusts hit, you feel like you are at a standstill. Actual temperature is fine and rain has held off so far.
There is a huge band of rain as far east as Swansea but it hasn't been moving due east so hard to say if you're going to get it or not?
Not to belabor the point, but would appreciate weather reports right up to & throughout the race from some actual runner types who are out there. I haven't read anything in all the pre race talk about how the Kenyans have traditionally disdained the rain, even forgoing or at least putting off a scheduled run/workout until the rain has stopped. I've interpreted it almost as a bad luck, superstitious kind of thing. I know L.R. has someone over in Kenya now for the next 6 months, if you're around this morning, could you chime in?
Yeah bbc puts it at a 50% chance of rain. Major winds to hit at 3 PM (sustained 40 mph). Last night they were saying 100% chance of rain at the start so seems like it is holding off, but very cloudy over here.
Well I'm running the race so can give you updates until about an hour from now when I'll be warming up...doubt they'll have wifi in the athletes area so not much help after that.
kmaclam wrote:
Not to belabor the point, but would appreciate weather reports right up to & throughout the race from some actual runner types who are out there. I haven't read anything in all the pre race talk about how the Kenyans have traditionally disdained the rain, even forgoing or at least putting off a scheduled run/workout until the rain has stopped. I've interpreted it almost as a bad luck, superstitious kind of thing. I know L.R. has someone over in Kenya now for the next 6 months, if you're around this morning, could you chime in?
I'm further north in Glasgow so my weather observations may not be that useful. But so far I'd say it hasn't been as bad as predicted. Winds have quite died down and it has stopped raining. Rain bands here usually sweep straigh east off the Atlantic but today's isn't doing that. This table gets updated every hour by the Met Office usually around about now so may be worth refreshing. The 12h reading is just in and shows wind S 11mph and no gusts.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation/gcjszmp44Good luck to Rachel Felton in the womens race. First senior GB vest at nearly 37 years old - not bad hey, hope for us all!
Thanks, really appreciate the reports, esp. coming from runners. Sounds like it's going to be way less of an issue than predicted, but still a factor. Perhaps it favors the X-C types a bit? Those who tend not to be put off by such things? Hope the coverage/stream is decent.
