After Watching Millrose 3k, Do you think Rupp makes World Indoor team at 3k?

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  • LetsRun.com
    your benevolent dictator
    4 years ago 02/20/2016 5:55pm CST
    Forum Index
    Galen Rupp is trying the unprecedented Olympic Trials Marathon, USA Indoors 3k double a month apart.

    He'll have his hands full in the 3k. The 3k is not his best event and the US is pretty damn good at 3k right now.

    Results from Millrose

    1 Ryan Hill
    Nike BTC 7:38.82
    2 Hassan Mead
    Nike OTC 7:38.85
    3 Eric Jenkins
    Nike OP 7:39.43
    4 Evan Jager
    Nike BTC 7:40.10
    5 Mo Ahmed
    Nike BTC 7:40.11
    6 Edward Cheserek
    University of Oregon 7:40.51
    7 Kemoy Campbell
    new balance 7:40.79
    8 Andy Bayer
    Nike BTC 7:42.33
    9 Lopez Lomong
    Nike BTC 7:43.01
    10 Cam Levins
    Nike OP 7:45.44
    11 Donn Cabral
    Nike 7:47.18
    12 Trevor Dunbar
    Nike 7:47.39
    13 Matt Hughes
    Nike BTC 8:05.23


    So do you think Rupp makes the team?

    The world half is a week after World Indoors. That could be a fallback for Rupp or who knows he could try the triple.
  • thrice as nice
    4 years ago 02/20/2016 6:00pm CST
    re: LetsRun.com
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    Would LOVE to see him do the triple. Talk about epic. And yes, he can make the 3k team.
  • Division 2 Dog
    4 years ago 02/20/2016 6:02pm CST
    re: thrice as nice
    Forum Index
    thrice as nice wrote:

    Would LOVE to see him do the triple. Talk about epic. And yes, he can make the 3k team.

    3k is not an Olympic event.
  • yay area
    4 years ago 02/20/2016 6:07pm CST
    re: Division 2 Dog
    Forum Index
    Ches stepping it up, running with the big guys rather than just running in front of college kids.
  • Devil Dog
    4 years ago 02/20/2016 6:27pm CST
    re: yay area
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    7:38? Pretty good time for a college runner.
  • TruthSayer
    4 years ago 02/20/2016 6:30pm CST
    re: Devil Dog
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    7:30 and 3:50 indoors. I think he'll be fine - assuming it will be an honest run race.
  • Montesquieu
    registered
    4 years ago 02/20/2016 6:36pm CST
    re: LetsRun.com
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    Some of it turns on whether True and Jager run. I don't think he'll be able to beat Hill and Jenkins is a toss up right now (if only because of the effect of the marathon, although I think Jenkins will be able to beat Rupp outdoors in the 5 in any case). If Jager in particular runs, Rupp will have a hard time making the team, which might be a good thing for him.
  • Montesquieu
    registered
    4 years ago 02/20/2016 6:37pm CST
    re: Montesquieu
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    I should have said something about Mead. I need to see him do something at the big events before I start believing.
  • criky
    4 years ago 02/20/2016 6:57pm CST
    re: Montesquieu
    Forum Index
    Montesquieu wrote:

    Some of it turns on whether True and Jager run. I don't think he'll be able to beat Hill and Jenkins is a toss up right now (if only because of the effect of the marathon, although I think Jenkins will be able to beat Rupp outdoors in the 5 in any case). If Jager in particular runs, Rupp will have a hard time making the team, which might be a good thing for him.

    You think Jenkins will be able to beat Rupp in a 5K outdoors? I mean sure, if Rupp [email protected] the bed, but how many DL 5Ks has Rupp finished in the top 3 in? Like 8? His 12:58 is soft compared to his 3000 and 10000 marks as well as his competitive 5Ks. Not that it will matter because Rupp won't run the 5K at trials this summer. Don't be surprised if he comes back next summer and sets the AR at 5000 though, same way Ritz did after his years of marathon training.

    As far as the 3K indoors this season, who the heck knows 30 day after a 2:08-2:09 like marathon. But he's certainly still the best 3000 runner in the US. Had he still been focused on mile-5K he'd have blown away from these guys today. If he raced like Jager did, he'd be getting ripped apart :-)
  • criky
    4 years ago 02/20/2016 7:00pm CST
    re: Devil Dog
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    Devil Dog wrote:

    7:38? Pretty good time for a college runner.

    Nearly 7:39, but USAs could go that or slower. Hill can always win a quick but not blazing race. He could win USAs but unfortunately not be a factor over the last few laps at worlds. I hope he can surprise me on that.
  • wejo
    cofounder
    4 years ago 02/20/2016 7:04pm CST
    re: criky
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    criky wrote:

    Montesquieu wrote:

    Some of it turns on whether True and Jager run. I don't think he'll be able to beat Hill and Jenkins is a toss up right now (if only because of the effect of the marathon, although I think Jenkins will be able to beat Rupp outdoors in the 5 in any case). If Jager in particular runs, Rupp will have a hard time making the team, which might be a good thing for him.

    You think Jenkins will be able to beat Rupp in a 5K outdoors? I mean sure, if Rupp [email protected] the bed, but how many DL 5Ks has Rupp finished in the top 3 in? Like 8? His 12:58 is soft compared to his 3000 and 10000 marks as well as his competitive 5Ks. Not that it will matter because Rupp won't run the 5K at trials this summer. Don't be surprised if he comes back next summer and sets the AR at 5000 though, same way Ritz did after his years of marathon training.

    As far as the 3K indoors this season, who the heck knows 30 day after a 2:08-2:09 like marathon. But he's certainly still the best 3000 runner in the US. Had he still been focused on mile-5K he'd have blown away from these guys today. If he raced like Jager did, he'd be getting ripped apart :-)


    Rupp almost didn't make the team at 5k last year. Everyone expects him to smash the 5k record but for whatever reason it hasn't happened. The 10k is his better event than the 5k and if that is the case then why do we think he's the best 3k runner in America?

    It's an easy to think Galen Rupp is our best 3k runner (as he's our best distance runner by far), but is he really?

    The triple I am talking about is Marathon Trials, World Indoors (and US) and World Half Marathon. All within 5 weeks I believe.
  • Montesquieu
    registered
    4 years ago 02/20/2016 7:17pm CST
    re: criky
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    Jenkins ran 13:07 last summer after cross country, indoors, and outdoors NCAA. That's pretty amazing. He has already run faster than the outdoor 3000 PR that he set just before 13:07. Of course, one could add many qualifications. However, I do think he'll be ready to break 13 this summer. I did not think True would break 13, so this is anything but easy: it is amazingly hard and obviously rare among Americans, especially those not in their prime. But I think Jenkins is our biggest young talent in the 5, and, unlike Levins, he's clearly taken to Salazar's training (not always a given). Now, as Wejo pointed out, it's not the case that Rupp will be training to run a fast 5 this outdoor season, so there is at least that on my side. Nonetheless, however good Rupp has been in the 5, it pales compared to his success in the 10.
  • uum
    4 years ago 02/20/2016 7:21pm CST
    re: wejo
    Forum Index
    wejo wrote:

    ...why do we think he's the best 3k runner in America?

    It's an easy to think Galen Rupp is our best 3k runner (as he's our best distance runner by far), but is he really?



    Yes. Who else has run 7:30?
  • The Single Voice of Reason
    4 years ago 02/20/2016 7:23pm CST
    re: wejo
    Forum Index
    wejo wrote:

    Rupp almost didn't make the team at 5k last year. Everyone expects him to smash the 5k record but for whatever reason it hasn't happened. The 10k is his better event than the 5k and if that is the case then why do we think he's the best 3k runner in America?

    It's an easy to think Galen Rupp is our best 3k runner (as he's our best distance runner by far), but is he really?

    The triple I am talking about is Marathon Trials, World Indoors (and US) and World Half Marathon. All within 5 weeks I believe.

    Have you forgotten that Rupp outkicked Caleb Ndiku to run 7:30.16 (AR) indoors, only 3 years ago? If he's focused on the event, Rupp is our best 3k guy. And that he has broken the AR in the indoor 2 miles multiple times?

    That said, with the marathon trials in his legs and presumably less focus on 1500 meter speed than he had during the '13 season, who knows. But yeah, don't be an idiot.
  • Rupp is
    4 years ago 02/21/2016 6:18am CST
    re: wejo
    Forum Index
    Because everyone knows Rupp is surprisingly bad at 5k and its his weakest event. Rupp basically is competitive with world's best at indoor mile, 3k, 10k but slightly less competitive in the 5k.
  • Consider this....
    registered
    4 years ago 02/21/2016 7:42am CST
    re: Rupp is
    Forum Index
    I think he has a better than 50% chance of making it, but strategy and a decisive kick are going to be really important, as was evident at Millrose. Lots of capable guys were in striking distance very late in the race, but either got boxed or didn't move when they needed to. I think that guys like Jager and Cheserek could have won that race if they were positioned better.
  • rojo
    cofounder
    4 years ago 02/21/2016 10:00am CST
    re: TruthSayer
    Forum Index
    TruthSayer wrote:

    7:30 and 3:50 indoors. I think he'll be fine - assuming it will be an honest run race.

    As my new role as the leader of the Rupp bandwagon in 2016 (remember I said he'd rock the Olympic marathon Trials), I had been assuming Rupp could basically do whatever he and Alberto Salazar wanted. Now that Rupp has won the Trials, I'm going back to my old roll of Rupp skeptic.

    A few points.

    1. I don't care that Rupp has run 3:50 in the mile indoors. He's not fast. Does the name Raffi Cote ring a bell? http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=3380182

    Rupp is extremely strong. He runs 3:50 as he can bang out four 57.5s in a rabbited race. That doesn't mean he has the jets to switch gears and kick with big guns in a mile or 3k. When I was talking to Garrett Heath on Friday, he said to me that when he used to run the 1500, he was screwed unless the pace was really fast. I'd say the same thing with Rupp in a 3k.

    2. As Weldon pointed out, Rupp's best event on the track is the 10k. Then the 5k. Last time I checked, 3k is less than 5k.

    In 2012, Rupp failed to make the 3k team. Have you all forgotten that?

    In 2014, Rupp failed to beat Lagat in the 3k at USAs. This year replace Lagat with Hill. Rupp definitely isn't beating Hiill. Maybe he could get the second spot but I'd say I doubt he gets it given he's coming off the marthon trials.
  • adidas man
    4 years ago 02/21/2016 10:02am CST
    re: rojo
    Forum Index
    rojo wrote:

    Maybe he could get the second spot but I'd say I doubt he gets it given he's coming off the marthon trials.

    So Rupp could get spot #2? So could Jenkins. Does anyone think Al Sal will sabotage Jenkins on prupose to protect his golden boy? Have him over do it in practice or something.
  • Down in Fayetteville
    4 years ago 02/21/2016 10:13am CST
    re: rojo
    Forum Index
    rojo wrote:

    TruthSayer wrote:

    7:30 and 3:50 indoors. I think he'll be fine - assuming it will be an honest run race.

    As my new role as the leader of the Rupp bandwagon in 2016 (remember I said he'd rock the Olympic marathon Trials), I had been assuming Rupp could basically do whatever he and Alberto Salazar wanted. Now that Rupp has won the Trials, I'm going back to my old roll of Rupp skeptic.

    A few points.

    1. I don't care that Rupp has run 3:50 in the mile indoors. He's not fast. Does the name Raffi Cote ring a bell? http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=3380182

    Rupp is extremely strong. He runs 3:50 as he can bang out four 57.5s in a rabbited race. That doesn't mean he has the jets to switch gears and kick with big guns in a mile or 3k. When I was talking to Garrett Heath on Friday, he said to me that when he used to run the 1500, he was screwed unless the pace was really fast. I'd say the same thing with Rupp in a 3k.

    2. As Weldon pointed out, Rupp's best event on the track is the 10k. Then the 5k. Last time I checked, 3k is less than 5k.

    In 2012, Rupp failed to make the 3k team. Have you all forgotten that?

    In 2014, Rupp failed to beat Lagat in the 3k at USAs. This year replace Lagat with Hill. Rupp definitely isn't beating Hiill. Maybe he could get the second spot but I'd say I doubt he gets it given he's coming off the marthon trials.


    You either have selective memory, or have clearly missed Rupps indoor 3000s and 2 miles. Yes, he can run even :57 points for a mile. Yes he can. What does he reall need to close in make top 3?Who the hell else can does this in the 3K. Who else can even go 60, 60, 57, 57 in a mile?

    People are forgetting the other guy that can do that with ease and potentially mop up Hill in a kick. Centro. If he chooses the 3k it will be a lot harder for everyone including Rupp.
  • TrackCoach
    registered
    4 years ago 02/21/2016 11:58am CST
    re: LetsRun.com
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    LetsRun.com wrote:

    Galen Rupp is trying the unprecedented Olympic Trials Marathon, USA Indoors 3k double a month apart.

    He'll have his hands full in the 3k. The 3k is not his best event and the US is pretty damn good at 3k right now.


    When Rupp was on top of his middle distance game a couple of years ago, he would not have a problem, but he does not appear to have the same snap in his legs nowadays. However, I think his marathon recovery will be less of an issue than most people think. I have seen athletes run fast with in weeks following a marathon, my 10K road PR came two weeks after a marathon. Where the marathon mainly beats you us is when you get out too quick or you are racing to the finish line the last couple of miles. The quality of Mo and Rupp's training is such that I think the USOTM was only slightly more taxing than a 20 mile training run. When you look at Rupp's training partners, Centro, Levis, and Jennings, AlSal knows exactly what Rupp's capabilities are and if he lines up, which may not happen, but if he lines up, I am sure he will be competitive.

    With all of that said, finishing top-2 is going to be tough in a championship style 7:45 race.