I'd really like to see Rupp take a shot at the marathon. I truly think that he has a better shot at medalling in that event than he does at 5k. I don't think he can win the gold, but it'd be interesting to see if he could get close to the podium. On the other hand, I do think that the 10k is his best event. I'd bet on him medaling in that event over the marathon, but it'd be interesting if he were to become the new face of USA Marathoning, just as Meb the former 10,000m runner became in 2004.
Ritz will win (if he does not get hurt in the next month).
The man has said it himself many times, he doesn't need to do a lot of work to get into great shape. Lets just hope he shows up no less than 80%
Meb will get second. No reason needed.
Puskedra will be third. He ran a great race at Chicago and seemed to 'figure it out' in some sense. He doesn't talk the talk, he just walks the walk. He has kind of an old school guy mentality- run a lot, do some speed work and be tough.
Guys like Matt Llano will go home disappointed- doing intricate workouts that, in the end, are not ideal for marathon training and better suited for half marathons.
(My entire prediction is based on Rupp not running. If he runs, he will win.)
I will admit, I am terrified of Abdi busting my prediction.
In no particular order: Ritz, Rupp (if he runs), Jon Grey and Puskedra.
Women: Flanagan, Hastings and Linden.
This is if they all show up on the start line healthy.
In no particular order:
Meb
Ritz
Sam
Rupp I guess could "make it" but I don't think he'd run the marathon at Rio so I'm saying the above 3 will be our representatives.
Women I'll take Shalane, Desi, and I don't know...Kellyn Taylor?
Ritz
Meb
Chelanga/Puskedra (leaning towards Pusekedra)
wejo wrote:
The Olympic Marathon Trials are a month from today.
We're going to have a live radio show/podcast with a guy who may not even be running the Trials, Chris Derrick at 3pm eastern.
There are a ton of story lines for the Trials.
Does Meb continue to lead the US at 40+? Does Abdi make a 5th Olympic Team? Does Ryan Hall make the team? Does Ryan Hall even run the Trials? What about Galen and Derrick?
For the women, Shalane and Desi are the favorites, do they both come through? How does the Kara Goucher comeback go? Can Deena make it at 42? Who breaks through from the next group.
Let's hear your thoughts. What are you most looking forward to and who do you think will make the team?
Would love to hear some talk about the dark horses - Diego Estrada, Tim Ritchie, etc.
Do you have a link to where the show will be?
It will be all darkhorses!! Llano, Macpherson, Smyth.
The show will be here.
Please post your questions in the forum. I also think a talkshoe chat box will pop up somewhere once the how goes live.
Is Teg even running? He isn't entered:
The Olympic Marathon Trials are a month from today.
We're going to have a live radio show/podcast with a guy who may or may not even be running the Trials, Chris Derrick at 3pm eastern.The show will be here.
Please post your questions in the forum. (A talkshoe chat box may pop up somewhere once the show goes live)
.There are a ton of story lines for the Trials.
Does Meb continue to lead the US at 40+? Does Abdi make a 5th Olympic Team? Does Ryan Hall make the team? Does Ryan Hall even run the Trials? What about Galen and Derrick?
For the women, Shalane and Desi are the favorites, do they both come through? How does the Kara Goucher comeback go? Can Deena make it at 42? Who breaks through from the next group.
Let's hear your thoughts. What are you most looking forward to and who do you think will make the team?
rojo wrote:
The show will be here.
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2016/01/podcast-1-month-2016-us-olympic-marathon-trials-special-guest-chris-derrick/Please post your questions in the forum. I also think a talkshoe chat box will pop up somewhere once the how goes live.
Ask him if Teg is running the trials, or if he is even training right now.
No order:
Ritz, Meb, ? (would like to Puskedra)
Shalane, Desi, ?
Bobby Curtis will be 3rd.
I think the men's race is wide open. Meb is probably is too old to break 2:10 again. He is also coming off of a short training cycle. Not the thing you want to do when you are 42. Ryan Hall has not had a good race in 4 years. Ritz's build up was interrupted by a hip injury. Even at his best, Ritz has been bedeviled by the marathon with bad cramping issues late in the race.
Puskedra has the most momentum going in with his Chicago 2:10. He is running Houston half this weekend. He is the kind of guy to go full out no matter what. His race this weekend will let us know what kind of shape he is in.
Diego Estrada has the most potential with his huge 1/2 debut. But the marathon is a very long race.
Eggleston has not had a great race since summer of 2014. Vail, Curtis, Cabada and Arciniaga have not had a great race since 2014.
Rupp laps the field, but I have a feeling he stays on the track. Salazar is too protective.
If the race is more tactical, guys like Pennel and Landry will be in the mix because they are good old fashioned road racers.
On the women side, Flanagan and Desi are a lock. After that, who knows. Kara has not had a good marathon in forever. There are about a dozen women who could all run 2:28 and be in the hunt for the no. 3 spot. Cragg and Kastor would be the favorites, but they are not that far ahead of the rest.
Rupp is 29. If he's going to move up to the marathon now is the time to do it.
The next question is how well will he do if he does? He does not seem like a natural marathoner to me. It seems more like it will take him a couple of tries to get it right, but you never know. He's far and away the best US 10k runner, and probably the best 1/2 marathoner, but the full thing is yet another animal which he may or may not be better suited to. I'm sure, though, that if he suits up he and Alberto must have some sort of evidence he'd be good (though it did not quite work for Mo as expected).
I'm going with Ritz, Meb, and a dark horse. Someone like Vail, or another lesser hyped blue chipper.
I could also see Derrick surprising. He does seem more like a natural marathoner to me.
I think Hall's best days are behind him. If he starts I would be surprised to see him finish, let alone finish high up (though I'd be happy for him if he did).
Guys like Estrada or Chelanga are probably good marathoners down the road, but I don't expect a good one out of them right away.
Ritz and Meb (doesn't matter what order), Jared Ward
Flanagan, Desi Linden, Amy Cragg
Fewer upsets and changes than some might think. Much talk about talented new guys, but none of them have broken 2:10
Chelanga 1st
Puskedra 2nd
Meb 3rd
Ritz 4th
Estrada 5th
yessisw wrote:
Guys like Matt Llano will go home disappointed- doing intricate workouts that, in the end, are not ideal for marathon training and better suited for half marathons.
I agree that llano probably won't make the team but what intricate workouts does he do?
I just went to a random week in his Berlin buildup and here is what it was
M 13/ 4.5
T 17 w/ 3x3 mi @ 14:50/ 4.5
W 12/ 6.5
T 16/ 3
F 12/ 5 w/ strides
S 26 w/ 19 miles alternating 5:10 and 6:00 miles
S 10/ 6
Total - 136
Looks like pretty standard marathon training to me
rojo wrote:
The show will be here.
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2016/01/podcast-1-month-2016-us-olympic-marathon-trials-special-guest-chris-derrick/Please post your questions in the forum. I also think a talkshoe chat box will pop up somewhere once the how goes live.
Thanks, I love your podcast.
Sound quality could be a bit higher, but it is interesting anyway.
I'm going to pick Luke, to win.
I admit a lot of that is mostly because I want him to win, just because I think it will make for a good story. I like the whole comeback part of it. From dropped by his sponsors, completely out of the sport, to (hopefully) making the Olympic team without a sponsor.