Is this hard to do? If a freshman does this what is their potential as a senior? What do most people run as freshman? Thanks!
Is this hard to do? If a freshman does this what is their potential as a senior? What do most people run as freshman? Thanks!
Its fairly hard to do. I would say that would put you as a top 50 frosh in the country? Roughly.
I would like to see improvement of 10 sec per year so 4:10 as a senior.
Pretty quick for a college freshman female.
I happen to know a male who ran 4:40 the fall of his freshman college year and went on to run sub-4:05. We all mature at different ages...
br0ski wrote:
Its fairly hard to do. I would say that would put you as a top 50 frosh in the country? Roughly.
I would like to see improvement of 10 sec per year so 4:10 as a senior.
Yeah, top 50 or 100 seems about right. Of course, if the athlete has been training "seriously" since 6th grade, it doesn't maybe show as much potential as if they started training that winter for the first time.
Also, clearly some people respond to training very quickly, then seem to not develop much over the years. A 4:40 freshman year could reasonably predict anywhere from 4:30 to 4 flat senior year, just too many variables.
Pretty quick for a college freshman female.
I happen to know a male who ran 4:40 the fall of his freshman college year and went on to run sub-4:05. We all mature at different ages...
My progression in high school was 4:49, 4:32, 4:18, 4:12
Surely not top 50 in the country? Seems like it would be more common than that.
OP, there's no way to tell. Could improve by 5 seconds or 40 seconds.
More anecdotal evidence:
Myself - 4:46, 4:32, 4:29, 4:26 (4:08 in college with mediocre training)
My teammate - 4:36, 4:28, 4:27, 4:27 (physically matured early)
We were in the smallest division and our training reflected the level of competition, doing just enough to win.
I personally know 5 kids in my grade who ran under 4:40 in 9th grade, definitely not top 50 in the country.
If I wanted to know the potential of a future miler, I'd want to know his 200 or 400 time. The mile time means nothing.
Ran 5:06 in 8th grade, then a 4:46 in 9th. Came into sophomore year thinking I was heading to a 4:30s o 4:20s mile....but....4:49 for 10th, 4:43 for 11th, and 4:38 for 12th. Things happen. Biology happens. I worked just as hard as I did in 9th grade and upped the miles (30-50/week) and intensity, but it just didn't equate into faster times (2-mile also suffered). Went off to college and really upped the miles over the 4-years I ran (90-120) and saw the mile go down into the mid to low 4:20s (which still isn't great even for a high schooler, but I was happy). For some people, it just takes time. I'm still PRing in longer events now into my 30's...just keep trying. I think it was just I put a lot of time and effort into training when I was 13-14 and may have developed earlier than others, hence the nice 9th grade time that seemed to be the plateau. The others caught up and I discovered I didn't have much talent to work with, just a strong work ethic to try and stay somewhat competitive with my peers. Keep running no matter what and see where it takes you.
br0ski wrote:
Its fairly hard to do. I would say that would put you as a top 50 frosh in the country? Roughly.
I would like to see improvement of 10 sec per year so 4:10 as a senior.
No chance it's top 100 in the country. Doubt it's top 1,000. I'd guess every county of any size has at least one and probably more.
As to potential who knows. It's nothing special. It's a good time for sure, but not exceptional.
I went 4:37, 4:28, 4:34, 4:27
Alan
ThatFreshman wrote:
Is this hard to do? If a freshman does this what is their potential as a senior? What do most people run as freshman? Thanks!
I ran 5:16 in 8th grade, 4:49 as a freshman, then grew a sack and jumped to the two mile where I went 10:02 and then 9:40. Just finished a 2:49 marathon in first attempt. Moral of the story: sack up sonny.
Best of luck hope that helps
This should not be hard to achieve with some talent and a bit of solid training.
What are you waiting for... now fuc* off out there and knock in 18 x 200m at 1 mile pace.
a medium aged guy wrote:
br0ski wrote:Its fairly hard to do. I would say that would put you as a top 50 frosh in the country? Roughly.
I would like to see improvement of 10 sec per year so 4:10 as a senior.
Yeah, top 50 or 100 seems about right. Of course, if the athlete has been training "seriously" since 6th grade, it doesn't maybe show as much potential as if they started training that winter for the first time.
Also, clearly some people respond to training very quickly, then seem to not develop much over the years. A 4:40 freshman year could reasonably predict anywhere from 4:30 to 4 flat senior year, just too many variables.
Actually last year nationwide nearly 500 freshman boys ran under 4:40 in the 1600/mile. 4:40 is a good time for a freshman though!
wot wrote:
I personally know 5 kids in my grade who ran under 4:40 in 9th grade, definitely not top 50 in the country.
Just taking a guess here. Do you realize that a 1500 meter is not a mile?
That being said I know two kids on the same team in our state that are at or faster than that mark as Freshman, But I still think you may be mixed up.
Sub 4:40 as a frosh is a very solid mark. I've not seen it that often with my own eyes in 20+ years of coaching. That being said, I did watch a young German Fernandez run 4:34 after 3 weeks of training (he went 4:22 by the end of the season).
Of the 500 kids who did it last year, I would guess that the majority of them came from strong youth/junior high programs. To do it in your first year or first season of running is really something special.
As a HS Coach, I always figure a kid who breaks 5:00 as a freshman with no real running back ground is a good benchmark. With all the running programs we see kids being pushed into training like HS athletes too early. Usually a normal developing boy should look at a 10 second improvement every year if everything stays the same. 4:59-4:49-4:39-4:29. Now if you run 4:39 freshman year, and have a 5 clock shadow at noon and look 22, you wont usually see the same progression over the next 3 years. I have kids who run 5:05 now I would bet my life on are going to be smoking some of the 4:55 kid's ahead of him in a year just because of maturity. Everyone matures at different rates. I ran a 4:52 mile Sophomore year for a PR, Junior year a ran a 2 mile with splits of 4:51-4:44= 9:35. Didn't train harder, just matured.
I ran 5:11 in 8th grade, and my HS progression was 4:46, 4:38, 4:33, 4:31. But I also ran 1:59 and 9:32 my senior year, which were big improvements. If you don't gain much weight and stay dedicated, you could probably get into the 4:20s if not faster. I just wasn't much of a miler compared to other races.
Another example with 1600 and 800 times:
Frosh - 4:40, 2:06
Soph: 4:35, 2:01,
Junior: 4:22, 1:59
Senior: 4:31, 1:56 (injured most of season and wasn't able improve 1600 time)
Ultimate PR a few years later: 4:10.62 mile and 3:51.64 1500
In all honesty, what's needed is good winter training, with consistent mileage during Jan - Mar (40 - 50 miles / week). In April and May, you need a good mix of interval training and racing. You also need the right weather conditions.
Early season races should be used to learn the pace and try different approaches to find what's best for you.
Good luck!