Crazy thought: Might Centro be America's best hope for a 5000 medal in Rio?

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  • rojo
    cofounder
    4 years ago 01/04/2016 11:04pm CST
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    So we just put a debate between some members of the staff about how many medals the US team will win in the mid-d and distance action in Rio.

    http://www.letsrun.com/news/2016/01/predictions-new-year-many-mid-ddistance-medals-will-team-usa-win-2016-rio-olympics/

    When talking about the 5000, I wrote, "Jonathan’s main argument seems to be,'Let’s hope for a slow one.' Under that argument, might Centro be the US’s best medal hope at 5000? I’m serious. Yes, he might not make the team but generally the US 5000 race is often slow. Who is going to outkick him if it’s a 13:50 race like it was last year?"

    I certainly don't think Centro should even debate doing the 5000. But if USAs is a 13:50 race, would he win it? Additionally, if Worlds is a 13:50 race, would he be America's best hope for gold?
  • Logic Man
    4 years ago 01/04/2016 11:10pm CST
    re: rojo
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    Olympic Trials can be fast because there's someone in there who takes the pace out because he needs to hit the standard. Remember last time around when Mo Trafeh ran way out front and they had to run around 13:20 so he wouldn't get away.
  • 1500 specialist
    4 years ago 01/04/2016 11:16pm CST
    re: rojo
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    He hasn't shown anything to indicate that he can transition to the 5k effectively.
  • maybe...
    4 years ago 01/04/2016 11:20pm CST
    re: 1500 specialist
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    1500 specialist wrote:

    He hasn't shown anything to indicate that he can transition to the 5k effectively.

    His dad was a 5K American record holder so I would bet on him having the talent for it.
  • Other options
    4 years ago 01/04/2016 11:29pm CST
    re: maybe...
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    Didn't he run 13:20 at Stanford? I'd say if he wanted to move up he would be the best in the US and best hope for a medal.
  • To maybe...
    4 years ago 01/04/2016 11:29pm CST
    re: maybe...
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    So your basing this on "the apple doesn't fall far from the tree" theory? Even a broken clock is right twice a day, so who knows, you could be right.

    But seriously I do think he has "the wheels" for it.
  • training...
    4 years ago 01/04/2016 11:32pm CST
    re: maybe...
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    without specific training Centro won't even make the U.S. team. his mom was a shorter distance runner (800/880). his dad's 1500 pr is 3:37. so, 5k is unlikely; 800 more likely for matt the younger.

    maybe... wrote:
    His dad was a 5K American record holder so I would bet on him having the talent for it.
  • maybe...
    4 years ago 01/04/2016 11:39pm CST
    re: To maybe...
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    To maybe... wrote:

    So your basing this on "the apple doesn't fall far from the tree" theory? Even a broken clock is right twice a day, so who knows, you could be right.

    But seriously I do think he has "the wheels" for it.

    I said "I would bet on it." I did not say I guarantee it. But more likely than not, he does.
  • The Ghost of Caesar
    4 years ago 01/04/2016 11:43pm CST
    re: To maybe...
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    Centro is very much the right "type"of runner to make an easy enough transition from 1500 to 5k; he's fast, but he's got a speed and a stride that are smooth rather than hard. He doesn't muscle out the 1500 the way 800m/1500m guys like Makhloufi or Souleiman do, and lord knows it's a crowded field in that event...

    It would be truly crazy to see Centro opt for the 5k *over* the 1500m, but I do not think that doubling would be that tough, and leaving the options open for the Olympics would be cool to see.

    But to speak more directly to Rojo's point--it really comes down to the Farah question. With a 13:20 PR, Centro definitely could make the team, possibly even win the Trials. But it's when you account for the international field--Farah particularly--that things start to look dicier. We've already seen Farah dust Centro in the 1500m, so it seems unlikely that Centro would have the wheels to get him the gold, assuming Farah is running and not too tired from the 10k--but these 5k championship races have been so tight in the past years that I have to think that, yes, the best hope would be in Centro. He has the wheels to close in 52, depending on the pace, and when you're that good, anything is possible.

    Truth be told, when you consider how stacked the international field is in the 1500, then consider what it looks like in the 5k, Centro's chances of getting gold in the 1500m may not actually be *that* much better than getting it in the 5k. In fact, they might even be worse...
  • You Know Me
    4 years ago 01/05/2016 12:32am CST
    re: The Ghost of Caesar
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    1) milers don't always beat strength guys in 5000 meter kicks- See Willis v True

    2) the 1500 is the easiest championship event to place high in for westerners- see Willis/Leo/Centro/Centro v Mottram

    3) look at how fast the last several medalists have been over 5000m. This isn't HS where the miler moves up to run against slow distance guys. He even has to contend with a teammate who has run 3:28!
  • BadThought Rojo...
    4 years ago 01/05/2016 2:01am CST
    re: rojo
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    I don't think it's a correct or reliable thought.

    Centro will be relying much more heavily on his anaerobic system, even in a 13:50. He won't be able to outkick Galen, Hill, or most guys in a 13:50 race. Not a chance.
  • Lawdy
    4 years ago 01/05/2016 2:20am CST
    re: BadThought Rojo...
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    Didnt he lay down some pretty sick 3200s in hs? Personally i would love to see this happen. I think he would stand a much better chance than a ryan hill type..
  • ukathleticscoach
    registered
    4 years ago 01/05/2016 3:14am CST
    re: The Ghost of Caesar
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    [quote]The Ghost of Caesar wrote:

    Centro is very much the right "type"of runner to make an easy enough transition from 1500 to 5k; he's fast, but he's got a speed and a stride that are smooth rather than hard. He doesn't muscle out the 1500 the way 800m/1500m guys like Makhloufi or Souleiman do, '

    No he's not. He does not even get to the front in a 1500m preferring to sit and kick.
  • OklahomaGuy
    registered
    4 years ago 01/05/2016 6:31am CST
    re: rojo
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    Sounds very interesting. I'm not for sure, but wasn't Centro a 3200 runner in high school? And he and Mo do speed work together often, so he may be as fast as Farah. Obviously Farah has the better PR, but kick-wise they might be close.

    In talking about medal chances, let's not forget that Kiprop says he may want to try the 5k, and believes he could out kick Farah. That would really shake up medals in both 1500 and 5k, because assuming Kiprop would double, he may be much more tired in the 1500.
  • The Ghost of Caesar
    4 years ago 01/05/2016 8:59am CST
    re: ukathleticscoach
    Forum Index
    Yes, Centro sits and kicks, but it's not that simple. If you go back to the 2011 1500m final in Daegu, or the 2015 US Champ race, or the 2012 Olympic final, or even the 2013 final in Moscow, Centro's kick has been its strongest when there is a slow, steady buildup over 300m to 400m meters to top speed, rather than a rapid acceleration. Hard, fast, sudden changes of pace--like what Makhloufi pulled off in London, or what Kiplagat *tried* to pull off in Daegu--are most definitely not his forte.

    Centro and his team know this, too, and they have been working for a while to improve upon it. You could argue that the Moscow final stands as an exception to this, but what's interesting about that race is that if you go back over the 100m splits for the last 600m or so, every 100m was progressively faster than the first; there was a kind of "wind up" to the sudden burst that Centro was able to pull off in the last 100m.
  • 1500 specialist
    4 years ago 01/05/2016 9:23am CST
    re: ukathleticscoach
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    ukathleticscoach wrote:

    No he's not. He does not even get to the front in a 1500m preferring to sit and kick.

    This is wrong. Centro always gets himself out just behind the leaders except in sub 3:30 races.
  • BMore Marathoner
    4 years ago 01/05/2016 9:41am CST
    re: rojo
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    Look at the kid's form! He always looks like the smoothest runner out there. I'm surprised he hasn't moved up to 5000m. Maybe he will as he gets older but I definitely would like to see it now.
  • MatthewTheHahn
    registered
    4 years ago 01/05/2016 10:17am CST
    re: rojo
    Forum Index
    rojo wrote:

    So we just put a debate between some members of the staff about how many medals the US team will win in the mid-d and distance action in Rio.

    http://www.letsrun.com/news/2016/01/predictions-new-year-many-mid-ddistance-medals-will-team-usa-win-2016-rio-olympics/

    When talking about the 5000, I wrote, "Jonathan’s main argument seems to be,'Let’s hope for a slow one.' Under that argument, might Centro be the US’s best medal hope at 5000? I’m serious. Yes, he might not make the team but generally the US 5000 race is often slow. Who is going to outkick him if it’s a 13:50 race like it was last year?"

    I certainly don't think Centro should even debate doing the 5000. But if USAs is a 13:50 race, would he win it? Additionally, if Worlds is a 13:50 race, would he be America's best hope for gold?

    I can see him making the transition well but I cant see him medaling at Rio. The man to beat at the 5000 is Farah and I believe the Kenyan swill implement a long drawn out kick similar to Worlds. They know they cant out kick farah with 200 to go 400 to go 600 to go and, depending on the day, 800 to go so they are going to have to go from even further out then that. Centro has a fast lap kick in a slow 1500, but he doesn't have that fast of a kick in a fast race of even a moderately paced 1500 so I cant see him being able to gut it out for over 800m.
  • agip
    registered
    4 years ago 01/05/2016 10:26am CST
    re: 1500 specialist
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    1500 specialist wrote:

    He hasn't shown anything to indicate that he can transition to the 5k effectively.

    +1

    there's no evidence to suggest Centro'd be a sub 13 guy. This is all old wives tale stuff...he "looks"' like a 5000 guy. As if that means anything. Just by looking at him you can tell if he's a 13:05 also ran or a 12:55 medal candidate? Seriously?
  • Star
    registered
    4 years ago 01/05/2016 10:28am CST
    re: rojo
    Forum Index
    I don't see a great history of 1500m runners beating 5000m runners in slow, sit-and-kick 5000m races.