Today's debate: How many medals will the US win in the mid-d and distance events in Rio?

men+women 1-2 realistically. the rest of the world is pretty good so tough to beat, so rojo woke up one the right side of the bed. wejo and gault woke up in a rose garden.

Has anybody else noticed that Jenny simpson looks like a distance runner version of Rachel McAdams?

I can't believe you are still babbling about Jenny Simpson going back to the steeplechase. You really think she should give up the 1500 because the competition got tougher? If she was that kind of athlete she would never have switched to the 1500 in the first place; the steeplechase was always the easier path for medals and records.

She still has pride and something to prove in the 1500. She still wants that American Record, whether she talks about it or not. She believes she could have at least come close to another medal at the World Championships last year if she hadn't lost her shoe. She wants to make up for last year's disappointments.

There isn't the same kind of motivating factor in the steeplechase. A medal in the 1500 would be a greater accomplishment.

Which do you think would be more satisfying: proving you can compete with the best in the 1500 by beating rival Shannon Rowbury and others for a medal at the Olympics, and taking away the AR sometime during the year; or taking what appears to be the easier route to records and a medal, the steeplechase, perhaps denying teammate, training partner and close friend Emma Coburn a medal or record in the process?

ij wrote:

I can't believe you are still babbling about Jenny Simpson going back to the steeplechase. You really think she should give up the 1500 because the competition got tougher? If she was that kind of athlete she would never have switched to the 1500 in the first place; the steeplechase was always the easier path for medals and records.

If her goal is medals, yes she should switch.

And I'm not sure what you wrote is correct about the steeple always appearing easier. In 2008, a grand total of 1 woman in the world broke 4:00 in the 1500. One. 3 women ran 9:07 or faster in the steeple, including one at 8:58.

In 2009, Simpson's last in the steeple, Simpson ran 9:12.50 and was #4 in the world. In the 1500, she was sixth in the world at 3:59.90 - an event she wasn't even training for. #2 in the world was just 1.52 seconds ahead. It was quite logical for SImpson to think that perhaps her best shot for a medal was in the 1500.

ij wrote:

I can't believe you are still babbling about Jenny Simpson going back to the steeplechase. You really think she should give up the 1500 because the competition got tougher?

We have a poll in the article. 82% of the people agree with me. Currently, 52% think she should switch now and 30% think she should switch after this year.

I'm fine with giving it all she's got this year in the 1500. I think runners need new challenges anyways. The key is staying motivated. A switch to a new event, particularly, if she suffers disappointment this year would be huge.

If I was Simpson, I'd probably stick with the 1500 this year as I'd be extremely motivated to get the AR and stomp my new rival Rowbury. It probably annoys her to have Rowbury even considered as a rival.

800m-1 man, Nick Symmonds

1500m- 1 woman, either Simpson of Rowbury

3000m Steeple-1 man, Jager

5000m- 1 man, either Ben True or Eric Jenkins (I love that guy).

10000m- 1 man, Rupp (he wont win but he will medal). 1 women, Molly Huddle

Marathon- 1 man, I have no idea who but there is such a strong field I cant see someone not qualify. 1 woman-either Linden or Flanagan.

This is obviously the best case scenario. I'm trying to be optimistic so please don't rip me a new one

Depends entirely on how many Americans are poisoned by the sewage and pollution in the Brazilian water. Hell, we might not have any athletes survive until their event's final.

rojo wrote:

In 2009, Simpson's last in the steeple, Simpson ran 9:12.50 and was #4 in the world. In the 1500, she was sixth in the world at 3:59.90 - an event she wasn't even training for. #2 in the world was just 1.52 seconds ahead. It was quite logical for SImpson to think that perhaps her best shot for a medal was in the 1500.

One would think the fact that she subsequently won not one but two WC medals and a Diamond League championship at 1500m sort of validates the switch. She might well be a very competitive steepler but she's already doing pretty well at 1500.

Jenny hates steeplechase, even though she's the AR holder officially. She's the best in the US at 5k, also, but she's not going to do that either, although I think she could take down the American Record.

alanson wrote:

Jenny hates steeplechase, even though she's the AR holder officially. She's the best in the US at 5k, also, but she's not going to do that either, although I think she could take down the American Record.

I can understand being a big fan of Jenny Simpson, and I'm a big fan of hers, too. So I don't want to get on your case too badly, but I'd like to politely suggest that you state your case that she is the "best in the US at 5k," as it is definitely not obvious. I know that Jenny rivals Shannon, and Shannon rivals Molly, but it's not certain that Jenny will rival Molly.

Can't we wait until we are closer. We do not even know who will be on the team.

To the LRC debate about medals in Rio, I say 3. I think Huddle & Rupp are unsuppressable talents, and will win a medal in something; not sure what, though. The third will come from either Jenny or Shannon in the 1500m. I think Jenny doubling is more likely than her switching exclusively. I would really, really, really love to say Jager will get a fourth medal, but until I see a race where he sets the fast pace (Olympics can't have pace-setters), I just can't believe that the Kenyan trio will be undone.

In the men's 1500m, the Kenyans won't allow the pace to doddle this time. It'll be fast, and it'll blow even Makhloufi out of the water, unti Makh is left fighting for 3rd with Iguider.

In the marathon, I think Eritrea will send a quiet army, and take 2 men's medals & 1 female medal. These Olympic marathons will go to countries whose people can handle both heat & humidity well at the same time. So that's Eritrea, low-elevation equitorial Africa, Brazil & other parts of Central & South America, India, and southeast Asia. Of those, only Eritrea is producing world-beating marathoners. The remaining medals, however, will include surprises.

four medals: Jager and Coburn -3000m steeple, Wilson- 800m, Huddle - 10000m.