Ben True marathon potential given training

He's a great runner. Nothing special about those workouts though.

Obviously those times aren't super outstanding or impressive alone, but his first hard workout consisted of a sub-30 10k, which he even described as easy and controlled. I feel he is able to hit paces considered tough by many elites even early in training, and I think this current training and ability level would lend itself to a solid marathon time if he focused on the event.

Sub 30 is a joke for a guy like him. I would expect an athlete of his caliber to find those workouts straightforward. If anything, none of those workouts points towards anything special at the marathon.

2:15+

strava is such a poorly designed website.

Americans now days are way too afraid to run marathons, and honestly, it's embarrassing.

I'd say sub 2:10. I didn't really read what you wrote about his workouts though. I just think he can break 2:10 based on shorter races.

The 40 mins at 4:40 pace is far more impressive than the other workouts. But he is clearly very fit right now and putting in heavy mileage. I would think if he kept doing similar workouts for a few weeks and lined up in Jacksonville or Houston for a half marathon in January he would run under 60:00.

That is about the only potential that training gives though. But based on that if he trained for a marathon I would think he would have Ritz and Hall type capability. He has run 13:00 on the track and has a huge engine. Maybe 2:06-2:08

Whoops. I just realized my mistake. The 40 minute tempo was 4:51 pace not 4:41. That really puts a damper on things. Regardless of if his training now is indicative of future marathon fitness, his shorter distance times certainly do lend themselves to a fast marathon time.

He is probably too big to run something equivalent to 13:02. In the last three years he has run 13:11, 13:02, 13:05 and 13:06. That is a way better collection of times at 5k than any American marathoner has ever put up. He also has not really put up a similar time at 10k.

If he really is 6'2" and 146lbs I would give him a 40% shot at sub-2:09 and a 60% shot at sub-2:10, assuming he trained seriously for it. But if he is closer to 165 like he was 2 years ago (when he had run 27:41) I would rate his chances much lower.

Like someone else said, those workouts are base training for XC and 5k/10k, and like something that has been done for 50 years. I didn't look at the "in-between days" but that looks like John Walker's training in the '70s.

newname wrote:

He also has not really put up a similar time at 10k.

6th place at world cross country.

Oh man I did not know Ben was targeting the marathon. Holy carp! Hope he stays healthy!