So the title says it all. The junior has finished top 10 in both of his last national XC championships but has just ran his first race this season and finished as the 6th man for the Buffs. Will he be able to be in the CU top 3, top 5? All American, Top 10 overall? share what you think. I personally feel he will be top 10 and the CU #2 like last year but Im wondering what you guys think.
Actually it's his second. Just his first since the redshirt was removed. He ran in the Shootout. So, really he's only run two fewer races than his teammates...Pre-Nats and PAC-12's.
right forgot about that one. My point is he was pretty rusty at Regionals but in the past he has never looked super strong until nats when he emerges as a top 10 runner though doesnt look like it beforehand.
Lucky #13
I didn't bother to look up where he finished in the Shootout, but when he finishes 6th for Colorado, or when there is no chance Colorado can lose, he does not put in a race effort.
Call it a 50% chance he will run top 10 overall and a 50% chance that they have gotten too cute for their own good and he will run between 10 and 20.
My guess is that he ends up as their #2 or #3, in the 12-16 range, which is still a phenomenal performance considering his situation and a huge boost for the Buffs.
Bonkers wrote:
My guess is that he ends up as their #2 or #3, in the 12-16 range, which is still a phenomenal performance considering his situation and a huge boost for the Buffs.
This seems like a pretty solid guess, in my opinion.
No better than 25th, and probably more like 40th. Maybe even in the 50s or worse. I know everyone loves him, but there is not a shred of evidence suggesting that he's ready to run with the big boys this weekend. Two races, at opposite ends of the season, and he was Colorado's sixth man in both, well back of the leaders. There's a reason why he was going to be redshirted-he hasn't been looking great. He ran at regionals, so he must be coming around, but I think that saying he'll finish top 10 or even top 20 is wildly optimistic. I hope I'm wrong.
I would love him to get top 10 again but Im agreeing with the 12-16 range as the #2 or #3 man. lots of individual studs this year and the top Buff will probably be 8th at best considering Ches, Rotich, Curtin, Tiernan, Koech, Scott, Knight are all phenomenal runners this year and will probably fill 1-7 in some order. Also Mcgorty could be up there. CU will probably have 2 runners in the top 15 and another 2 in the top 25 with the 5th around 30th-40th. Thats my bet at least
McGorty could be up there? He beat everyone but Ches in a stacked Pac 12 field that included Colorado.
I'm not sure who this "Be Saarel" guy is but Ben Saarel will probably finish top 15 at NCAA, possibly top 10 if he's gotten rid of the rust.
Just thinking wrote:
McGorty could be up there? He beat everyone but Ches in a stacked Pac 12 field that included Colorado.
Except that Curtin, Scott, Knight, Rotish... were not there.
Probably at the finish line, like all the rest.
No way Wetmore burns his red shirt unless his workouts have been going very well. Top 10 is my guess.
Jhgihhhuhuhh wrote:
Just thinking wrote:McGorty could be up there? He beat everyone but Ches in a stacked Pac 12 field that included Colorado.
Except that Curtin, Scott, Knight, Rotish... were not there.
The Just thinking guy was correct. McGorty should be added to any potential Top-5 list, not relegated to a 2nd tier below the other guys mentioned.
To the OP's question: I'd put Saarel in the 20-25 range. 3rd or 4th for CU.
No way Wetmore burns his red shirt unless his workouts have been going very well. Top 10 is my guess.
bladerunner wrote:
No way Wetmore burns his red shirt unless his workouts have been going very well. Top 10 is my guess.
^^^^^^ THIS ^^^^^^^
Wetmore isn't going to run him for a 30th place.
This whole "sick" thing may just be a ruse.
Just thinking wrote:
McGorty could be up there? He beat everyone but Ches in a stacked Pac 12 field that included Colorado.
I meant that Mcgorty will be top 15 and in the mix for top 5 but I forgot about him at first and just added him in with a poor choice of words
update seeker wrote:
I'm not sure who this "Be Saarel" guy is but Ben Saarel will probably finish top 15 at NCAA, possibly top 10 if he's gotten rid of the rust.
Your comment adds nothing to this thread. Refrain from this kind of behavior in the future please. good day.
It is interesting he ran regionals.
Probably needed a decent effort before nationals anyway but I could see other coaches wanting to keep him fresh.
It doesn't make sense to have him run Regionals to see if he is fit as that burns his redshirt. Being the 6th man is surprising but he was only 9 seconds back of 3rd so I might assume he ran with the other guys until the end. Is that correct? Did anyone see it?
If he was running hard by any measure he's toast. Regionals was a glorified practice for Colorado. Colorado has 67 points at regionals. They had 65 points at nationals last year. So I have to assume they all took it easy and will give Saarel the benefit of the doubt. Last year I wondered what he could do but are we really supposed to expect him to be top 10? That would be incredible. I think top 25 would be a great run. Something like that and Colorado wins.
Last year's results:
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2014/11/results-2014-ncaa-cross-country-mens-womens-results/