Hi all!
There are many factors affecting (running) performance. BMI (body mass iindex) seems however to be a very important factor. A runner with BMI=25 who trains 30-40 km a week and currently running 10K in 45 min has the potential to become a sub 36 min runner with only approximately two years of training, if his BMI goes down from 25 to 20.
I did some statistical analysis on 44 Swedish recreational runners who run 10K sub 40 min. The estimaton formula from Swedish data for predicting performance on 10K was:
10K time in sec=1902+19,5BMI+0,10Age-2,43Weekly training volume (in km).
Descriptive statistics:
BMI: mean=22,5
stand.dev=2,30
Age: mean=36,80 years
stand.dev=7,11 years
Weekly training volume: mean=39,30 km
stand.dev=20,11 km
Now, I thought it would be a good idea to estimate a new model with larger data. I have a lot of spare time :)
If you are a 10K sub 40 min runner, please provide following information:
Height,
weight,
10K time (in min:sec)
average weekly volume (at the time you ran 10K sub 40 min).
It's important to have information about the variables at the time you set your sub 40 min.
After gathering the data, I will provide some hopefully interesting results.
Kind regards from Sweden