He's run a 45 second 400 and a 4:14 1500. Also, clearly he's more of a speed based guy because he has to do sprints too. I suspect he might be able to break 1:50???
What do you think?
He's run a 45 second 400 and a 4:14 1500. Also, clearly he's more of a speed based guy because he has to do sprints too. I suspect he might be able to break 1:50???
What do you think?
Duty free wrote:
He's run a 45 second 400 and a 4:14 1500. Also, clearly he's more of a speed based guy because he has to do sprints too. I suspect he might be able to break 1:50???
What do you think?
I know a guy named Joe who has PRs of 51, 1:55, and 4:23
Therefore I conclude based on SCIENCE and ALL publicly available data that Eaton could do 1:47.
The margin of error is 0.001 seconds.
I'd say around 1:53. But I'd reckon he could probably run faster in the 1500.
In audio of Eaton's coach that Letsrun linked to in their article about Eaton's performance at the world championships, Marra tells a story about Eaton running a 1:52 in a workout on a cold foggy night. So apparently he can run at least 1:52, which makes sense. He's also run 2:32 in the thousand.
I'd say that based off of that 1000m time (which is equivalent to about a 1:56.xx 800m), he should be able to run a 1500m in 3:55.
I'm changing my answer to 1:50.63
based on the 45 he could run a 1:40. Based on the 1500 he could run a 2:04.
With such a worse 1500, don't count on his speed to hold up with any kind of fast start. Too much acidosis.
Using Juantorena (44/1:43/3:45) as a model there's a consistent logarithmic progression in his PR's over distance.
103 = 44 x (800/400)^x
xln2 = ln (103/44)
x = 1.23
and
225 = 103 x (1500/800)^x
x = ln(224/103)/ln(1500/800) = 1.23
On the assumption that Eaton would have a similar progression based on his weight and sprint focus, let h be his 800 time, assume the two logs to be equal just like Juantorena's, and solve:
ln(h/45)/ln(800/400) = ln(254/h)/ln(1500/800)
ln(15/8)x(lnh - ln45) = ln2(ln254 - lnh)
lnh(ln(15/8) + ln2) = ln2xln254 + ln(15/8)xln45 = 6.2311
1.3217lnh = 6.23
h = e^(6.2311/1.3217) = 111.54
to check this, ln(111.54/45)/ln2 = 1.309
and ln(254/111.54)/ln(15/8) = 1.309
Of course he might not have an even progression, but maybe he would! Once I saw Juantorena did I had to calculate it. 1:52, just like he apparently actually did run.
regarding that 1000,
45 x (1000/400)^1.309 = 149.3 or 2:29
but if he was only in 45.5 shape at the time, it would be 2:30.9, pretty close to 2:32.
Actually, I think he's run 2.24 for 1000m indoors previously at the end of a heptathlon.
Fresh, he could run a 1:49 or 1:50 I'd think. Would have to do some minimal training, otherwise I'd think 1:52.
Rob Baker, who still holds the world best for the decathlon 1,500 (3:58) after 35 years, ran 1:50 in his first attempt at the 800. His best 400 was around 47, as I recall.
So I'd say Eaton could run at least that fast for 800, given his superior speed, even if he doesn't have the natural endurance Baker had.