If you're betting everything on a watch's accuracy you're in a heap of trouble. You're really going to have to practice the pace on a known distance to get the feel.
The long and short of it is while most Garmin (and other GPS) watches are reasonably accurate, there's a wealth of things that can through them off. They may be dead-on on one course, off by a few percentage points on another.
Small GPS antenna's like in any watch are prone to interference. Say your track goes around a football field and there's big lights, a stadium, etc, on one or more sides. That can interfere with the triangulation necessary to make GPS work.
Is your marathon in a big city? Through a wooded area? Going through a wind farm? Going through a neighborhood with a bunch of those invisible fences? You get the picture.
My 410 claims that I stop dead for a few minutes, then run over 60MPH for 1/4 mile when I go by a local country club's tennis courts. Similar situation when on a bike ride I do, same course varies between 32.5 and 34.1 miles. Some days I apparently fly ET style over some houses according to the tracks.
In any case why the hell are you using a GPS on a tracK? You lost? Don't know how long the track is? Geez. Practice your damn pace by checking your splits like normal people.