With Ajee Wilson out, rank America's best gold medal hopefuls in order from 1-10

I'd move Rupp farther down after yesterday's "incident"

I think you have Simpson and Rowbury way too high given how the other women have performed this year. If Dibaba didn't exist, it could be justified, but the chances of her being sick are less than the chances of Coburn just winning outright, IMO. I don't think that Rowbury and Simpson have a much better chance than Centrowitz or Rupp, to be honest. Maybe worse than Rupp.

1. Evan Yager

2. Emma Coburn

3. Jenny Simpson

4. Galen Rupp

5. Matt Centrowitz

6. Shannon Rowbury

7. Alysia Montano

8. Molly Huddle

9. Brenda Martinez

10. Leo Manzano

ummmmm... ever hear of Justin Gatlin?

I would put Molly Huddle up to #2 or 3 on the list. After Jager in the steeple, her race is what I am next most-excited about at WCs (among the Americans; also very excited about what Asbel K. and Genzebe D. will do...). Agree with Evan as #1 and Jenny S. being top 3.

This thread makes no sense.... JUSTIN GATLIN has the best chance for a gold medal!

dwightarm wrote:

This thread makes no sense.... JUSTIN GATLIN has the best chance for a gold medal!

Agree

Ignoring the fact that the list made it clear that Rojo was talking about distance events, I'd say Alyson Felix has a better chance at gold than Justin Gatlin after Bolt's performance in London. Tiana B in the long jump, Christian Taylor in the triple jump, Kovacs in the shot, and the American field in the 100 hurdles would all rank up there as well.

Of course, the best American chance for a gold medal overall is Ashton Eaton.

But again, Rojo just wanted to know about distance events.

kikKomen Soi sauce wrote:

ummmmm... ever hear of Justin Gatlin?

I remember hearing his name an awful lot a few years ago. He was banned for four years, right?

1. Jager

2. Coburn

3. Huddle

4. Rupp

5. Simpson

6. Rowbury

7. Centrowitz

8. Montano

9. Martinez

10. Ludlow

I'd say only the top three have reasonable shots

Let's not forget the hard kicking Hill and True. True ran 13:06 in Belgium and has the only 5k Diamond league win of any American. My money would still be on Farah. But, True and Hill can lay down a pretty serious kick in a tactical race. Just remains to be seen how they will deal with the heats and whether True will double.

osm wrote:

1. Jager

2. Coburn

3. Huddle

4. Rupp

5. Simpson

6. Rowbury

7. Centrowitz

8. Montano

9. Martinez

10. Ludlow

I'd say only the top three have reasonable shots

I don't think Rupp. Coburn or Centro will do better than 5th. Rupp has had several performances are far back as indoor which suggest he's not close to his fitness from 2 years ago. Coburn ran well at USAs but didn't look good in her last 2 races. Although her PR stacks up well against the top girls, but championships are about momentum and confidence going in. The good thing for Rupp and Coburn is that there are no off-the-chart unbeatable athletes in the 5K, SC and 10K anymore. Interesting, times overall are slower now than they were a decade ago, which means if Rupp and Coburn can get back to where they were a year ago, I would say a medal is in the cards. In the case a Centro, he could get 4th it things fall in place for him, but there are too many athletes that need to underperform to get a medal and even 4th. Btw, I would love to be wrong.

Eaton

4 x 100m men

Hardee

Reese

4 x 100m women

Dendy

Taylor

Kovacs

Rollins

Harper-Nelson

Bartoletta

Jager: 60 percent for podium, 10 percent for Gold (has the God-given talent, but lacks experience and confidence at this level still).

Huddle: 50% podium, 5% Gold (A really tough call, more a wish than a prediction. She's at her absolute peak, and the rest of the world has been relatively pedestrian (WL = 30:49.68, slower than Molly's PR from 2014). She showed a lot of guts in the Monaco 5k and she might be able to repeat that performance against an underperforming field in the 10k.).

Simpson: 40% podium, 0% Gold (Dibaba gets gold, Hassan silver).

Coburn: 20% podium, 5% Gold (on her best day she can beat everyone else having an average day, but she hasn't looked sharp in 2015).

Rowbury: 10% podium, 0% Gold (Jenny is a better racer, and Shannon's not going to knock off Hassan or Dibaba).

Martinez: 10% podium, 5% Gold (800 is a most competitive event. Brenda in form can win and Sum is good but not unbeatable. Brenda has not looked sharp this year, but she might peak at the right time).

Rupp: 5% podium (only because the competitive depth isn't there this year, but Rupp has not looked sharp in 2015).

Montano: 0% (has not looked in shape yet this year, can't give her a positive probability even on sentimental grounds).

Centrowitz, Manzano: 0% (There's too much talent in the 1500 elsewhere. Kiprop will run a crazy fast race).

No others (although I would love to see D'Agostino have a massive PR).

I disagree with everyone who's writing Coburn off because of a bad couple of races. I believe her when she said she was sick, and she was clearly in superb shape at USAs, never mind last year. She's capable of reclaiming that form in a little over a month, and there's nobody who she can't beat when she's on. Doesn't mean that she'll definitely win, but I like her chances a whole lot better than say the 1500m women trying to beat Dibaba. I don't think Rupp has a great shot either, but if Farah is a little bit off (highly unlikely), he has as good of a chance at winning as anyone else in the field. That mile is certainly cause for concern, but I wouldn't read too too much into a race called the "Flotrack Throwdown" on a terrible track that was basically a rust-buster for him. Rupp's season has been bizarre to say the least, but he's still in the conversation. You're right about Centro, obviously he's great at these kinds of races, but he has no chance of beating Kiprop, and there are at least 3-4 other guys who are simply in better shape than he is as well. He could snag silver or bronze, but he'll need a whole lot of things to break right for him to do so.

No American has a great chance for a distance gold medal, but here's who can get a medal:

1. Evan Jager --- good chance to get a medal

2/3. Shannon Rowbury & Jenny Simpson --- fair chance at a medal

4. Centro --- modest chance at a medal

5. Molly Huddle --- slightly less than a modest chance to medal

6. Emma Coburn --- not likely to medal, but it wouldn't be a surprise

7/8. Galen Rupp & Brenda Martinez --- unlikely to medal, but not impossible

9 through the rest of the team --- no chance to medal. None.

There's a big drop off after Jager, another big drop off after Centro.

. . .on the track

gatlin

oliver

felix

batman

D H-N

Joe Kovacs

Ashton Eaton

Jeff Henderson

Tianna Bartoletta

Allyson Felix

Justin Gatlin (twice)

Candyce McGrone (women's 200)

Christian Taylor

Lashawn Merritt

M&W 4X100

M&W 4X400

rojo

1. Evan Jager - World's #2 in 2015.

2. Jenny Simpson - Won in 2013. Total stud.

How has no one corrected this yet?

So you are saying there is a 0% chance Ben True wins gold?