As World's get closer, we might right a formal article on the homepage where we rank all of the US hopefuls in order of most likely to medal to least likely to medal. If we do that, we'll also rank them in terms of likelihood to win a gold medal.
Here is my tentative ranking of most likley to least likely to win gold medal.
1. Evan Jager - World's #2 in 2015.
2. Jenny Simpson - Won in 2013. Total stud.
3. Shannon Rowbury - Medalled in past, beat Simpson for AR. Just need Dibaba to be sick.
4. Emma Coburn - 5th fastest person in world in 2015. Has won DL races before.
5. Matthew Centrowitz - great at championship races but race is loaded.
6. Molly Huddle - women's 10k is down this year.
7. Galen Rupp - silver in 2012, needs Farah to be sick.
8. Alysia Montano - #11 on 2015 world list. Needs Sum to trip or be sick.
9. Brenda Martinez - #8 on 2015 word list.
10. Leo Manzano - silver in Olympics.
Someone please assign odds to them and/or re-order them.
I think there are a few others I could see winning gold that are even longer shots. Basically, the remaining 800/1500 runners. I don't see how they really 'win' it but if they could make the final and then there was a fall that took out 3-4 people, then they could do it.
No one else on TEAM USA can win gold. It's just not possible. I can't think of any combination of falls/illness , etc that would do it. Am i wrong in stating that? Well I problaby should have put Flangan in there. Forgot about her.
But it's kind of an interesting list to think about. Does Coburn, even though she's not as good of a runner as Centro, Rowbury or Simpson, have a better shot at gold than any of them. Falls are more common in the steeple and what are the odds that Dibaba screws up?