Mo Farah - two time World Champion and Olympic Champion at the distance, has just ran a blazing fast 1500m time
Geoffrey Kamworor - up and rising star, just dominated WXC
Bedan Karoki - Runner up at WXC, was a rising star in the 2011-12 range.
Imane Merga - very talented runner, multi-time WXC medalist
Muktar Edirs - a runner that some feel is a major kicker
Galen Rupp - Has the top time in the entire qualifying window, under speculation about drug abuse
Paul Tanui - 2nd fastest time in the entire window
How this will play out:
Everyone is fearing the kick of Mohammed Farah but in recent years no one has done anything about it because they believe their kick is just as good. You could say something very similar about Kenenisa Bekele in his prime. However, the comparable dark horse athletes here are Geoffrey Kamworor and Zersenay Tadese.
Kamworor feels that he is invincible after both his WXC dominance and his dominance at the Kenyan Trails. However, he fears Mohammed Farah's kick as he lost to him at the Pre Classic. Likewise, you had Tadese who feared Bekele's kick from the 2008 WXC.
Of course, you could see a slowish early pedestrian pace as no one wants to be leading early - it takes far more energy to lead from the first lap as everyone is trying to sort out positions.
- 1st km will be roughly 2:45-2:50 with the 2nd and 3rd km in that range.
- After that, you will see the three Kenyans try to push the pace to burn out any other kicker that is a threat. Expect the 4th and 5th km's to be around 2:40 for a 13:45 5k.
- I expect From there, Karoki and Kamworor push the pace around 2:40/k up until 7k, dropping at least Rupp and Merga.
- After 7k, Kamworor feels that it will take three consecutive 2:36 splits to drop Mo Farah. Ethiopia is likely out of the picture come 8k after a 2:36, all that will be left are Kamworor, Karoki and Farah.
- Karoki falls off the pace with 4 laps to go, and Kamworor starts to get a little worried. Instead, he is now thinking about a final 2 km in 5:10 to burn Farah. 9k is a 2:35 split
- After a 62 second 23rd lap, Mo Farah takes command with a 60 second penultimate lap, ultimately rendering any kick that Kamworor had useless. -- Mo then proceeds to run the final lap in 58 seconds for the win. Kamworor slows up with a 64 second final lap for 2nd with Karoki coming in behind for 3rd.
- 13:45 at 5k
- 19:05 at 7k
- 24:16 at 9k
- 26:45 Mo Farah, 26:51 Kamworor, 27:01 Karoki
After the race, speculation about Galen Rupp grows even stronger as some feel that he has seriously backed off on the doping because of the allegations and in turn has looked far worse than he did in 2012 and 2014.