Something is telling me the 10000m in Beijing is going to be very reminiscent of the 10000m from Berlin 2009

Something tells me you don't know that it's very hot and very humid in Bejing?

Not to mention smoggy, but did that have any effect in 2008?

Tadese? Hardly a factor. Will do his usual hard start and then fade out..great runner but his glory days are over.

I expect a repeat of this years awesome Pre 10k..with Tanui, Kamworor and now Karoki in the mix, planning to break Farah with more than a lap to go. Mo will be planning for this so it should make for an incredible race. Its gonna be one for the books!

Kamworor, shamwarrior. Tanui is the real great Kenyan hope. He was closer to Farah in Eugene, and he has ran 12:58 for world #2. Less than 2 weeks before Eugene he ran a 27:08. He cruised through the Kenya trials in only 27:18 because all he needed was 3rd.

If he goes that fast on a busy racing schedule, wait till he tapers and runs fresh at WC. The race is his to lose. Just don't let him think he can outsitandkick Farah.

Tommy2Nuttz wrote:

Tadese? Hardly a factor. Will do his usual hard start and then fade out..great runner but his glory days are over.

I expect a repeat of this years awesome Pre 10k..with Tanui, Kamworor and now Karoki in the mix, planning to break Farah with more than a lap to go. Mo will be planning for this so it should make for an incredible race. Its gonna be one for the books!

I was referening the potential comparison of Kamworor to 2009 Tadese, who did most of the work in Berlin only to just lose out to Bekele.

is this a joke ???

a race in which kamwo made no serious effort other than to test his kick

he claimed back injury for lack of speed

a nonsense ranking this far in season for a 12'58, showing how rubbish 5ks have been this year

3y ago at same time, 2nd ranked was 12'47 !!!

& menjo few years ago solo'ed a 26'56 & no one has claimed he was any great kenyan

you clearly don't know much about kenyan selectors

tanui wouda been desperately trying to win

3rd place nominally gets you team place but no guarantee

read situation re : 800 team :

beforehand, selectors spoke about Asbel :

~ "we don't want Asbel running 800 at trials

if we think our 800 squad is weak, we will consider putting Asbel into 800 team & let him double & he doesn't have to run 800 at trials"

this shows 3rd in trials is no guarantee of squad place

this must be a joke

kamwo is the 800 pound gorilla in the 10k squad

tanui is lucky the guys from few years ago aren't running 10k or in top-shape : when kiprop/mutai/eliud were in 10k pomp, tanui wouda been nothing more than a 2nd stringer

historically he will never be considered better than a 2nd stringer

he will need 26'30 to move up

kamwo woud always be 1st string of highest silk thread calibre

You are back with this "second string' stuff?

I think GK is their best chance in years but why do you insist Kipchoge would be a great 10000 runner? He tried and did not succeed. Mutai was a great marathoner like Kipchoge is now. Why do yo automatically assume he would have been a 26:30 person? Wilson Kiprp was good but it's not like he dominated other Kenyans.

13 flat for the second 5k.naah, more like 13:45/13:20.

Bad Wigins wrote:

he has ran 12:58

*sigh*

Roelants wrote:

why do you insist Kipchoge would be a great 10000 runner? He tried and did not succeed. Mutai was a great marathoner like Kipchoge is now. Why do yo automatically assume he would have been a 26:30 person?

Do you have a mental handicap? Or did you just start following the sport two years ago? You sound like you are unaware Kipchoge had a track career.

Educate yourself: Kipchoge was a 3000 world athletics final champion and 5000 world champion, multiple WC medalist, including outracing Bekele. He ran 12:45 for the 5000. He is now a 2:04:05 marathoner.

Mutai never demonstrated anything like Kipchoge's ability on the track and doesn't even have a recorded track 5,000 or 10,000 outside of Kenya. Probably 26:30 ability or better, but we'll never know since running the 10,000 barely pays airfare and Kenyans can basically retire with one WMM placing.

Even a child could tell you that as a 3:33 / 7:27 / 12:45 / 2:04:05 guy, Kipchoge could obviously have run 26:3x. Why he would bother is the question.

Tommy2Nuttz wrote:

Tadese? Hardly a factor. Will do his usual hard start and then fade out..great runner but his glory days are over.

I expect a repeat of this years awesome Pre 10k..with Tanui, Kamworor and now Karoki in the mix, planning to break Farah with more than a lap to go. Mo will be planning for this so it should make for an incredible race. Its gonna be one for the books!

I think you're right, but Tadese being in the race will be a factor, even though he won't hang past 9200 when the pace boils over.

What his presence at the front will do is push the Kenyans and help drop their usual hesitation to lead and strong together 63-64 second laps early on.

Having that kickless aerobic monster in the field with no option but to run hard from the gun will be a blessing to Kamworor, Tanui and Karoki.

weather underground wrote:

Something tells me you don't know that it's very hot and very humid in Bejing?

Something tells me you're being a p*ssy about the weather. The Kenyans aren't p*ssies; they want to win.

rupp-certified saladbar wrote:

I think you're right, but Tadese being in the race will be a factor, even though he won't hang past 9200 when the pace boils over.

What his presence at the front will do is push the Kenyans and help drop their usual hesitation to lead and strong together 63-64 second laps early on.

Having that kickless aerobic monster in the field with no option but to run hard from the gun will be a blessing to Kamworor, Tanui and Karoki.

It's about time you said something sensible. I absolutely agree, and Tadese should talk to the Kenyans about a race-plan, perhaps go so far as to collude. That would be excellent. I'd LOVE to see Farah forced to run truly fast, not just fast compared to sub-elites.

eh ?

for a kenyan, if he doesn't have ~ 26'30 intrinsic ability, he shoud be considered 2nd string

you clearly don't know much about eliud's brief 10k career

he ran his 26'49pb in '07 when losing a sprint to shinester by a coupla tenths

the pace was rubbish to 9k, on for 27+, but they speeded up last km & blasted the last lap

with some "proper" fast pace to 9k, he shouda at worst gone 26'40

he did this just off 5k training !!!

he didn't even bother to run 10k at kenyan trials & stuck to 5k

he ran a 26'50+ in '08 but again not serious about it & then 3y later !!!

that was a another 26'50 in rupp's 26'48 race

he really didn't take 10k seriously until '12 when expected to be huge threat in kenyan trials in eugene but shockingly got outsprinted for 7th in a race won by kiprop in majestic fashion

eliud surprisingly didn't bother with 10k anymore & moved up to M ??!!

this a guy, who all the way back in '07 off just 5k training was capable of worst, 26'40 !!!

i have no doubt he was in 26'30 shape in '12 trials but beaten badly in a mass sprint

because before recent nairobi 10k, he was 2nd fastest ever there in 27'27, losing narrowly to kiprop

geoffrey was at time a 2"04'55 guy at pancake-flat rotterdam

the following year, he ran nearly same time on one of toughest courses anywhere in new york !!!

he ran an incredible 28++ for last 10k on hilly part !!!

i have no doubt the geoffrey on new york '11 shape was capable of 26'10/26'20 for the M

yes he did

he won '10 nairobi in african games trials & dominated the actual games 10k also in nairobi

he was majestic winner of eugene 10k trials in '12

he looked a man amongst boys !!!

sadly he bombed in london, like many kenyans

ask his then coach, canova, how fast he reckoned kiprop was in '12 trials shape...

runranrun wrote:

Bad Wigins wrote:

he has ran 12:58

*sigh*

ok wise guy he has WENT 12:58, how about that.

rupp-certified saladbar wrote:

Mutai never demonstrated anything like Kipchoge's ability on the track and doesn't even have a recorded track 5,000 or 10,000 outside of Kenya. Probably 26:30 ability or better, but we'll never know since running the 10,000 barely pays airfare and Kenyans can basically retire with one WMM placing.

Even a child could tell you that as a 3:33 / 7:27 / 12:45 / 2:04:05 guy, Kipchoge could obviously have run 26:3x. Why he would bother is the question.

Thank You

See post above

I don't know how easily we can say Mutai's marathon translates to a 10k, but I do agree with Ventolin that Mutai's New York Marathon record is one of the best runs in the history of the sport. That course is extremely hard to run a fast time on.

RunWild wrote:

Everyone is fearing the kick of Mohammed Farah but in recent years no one has done anything about it because they believe their kick is just as good.

No.

They don't feel their kick is just as good.

They feel Farah can keep up with any pace they set and they will be sacrificial rabbits.

Your own analysis expects Farah to keep up and overtake them in the end with the others pushing the second half of the race.

And you expect Rupp to be dropped in the middle of the race?

I beleive Rupp has the fastest PR in the field and Farah has the second fastest.

It's not usually a good strategy to lead and try to run away from people that can run the distance faster.

They want the pace fast and they will want surges to through off Farah's tempo.

But they will have to sacrifice someone for that with the real competitor maybe sitting behind Farah most of the way.

Here's the 2009 race:

& don't forget that pace to ~ 30k was nothing too special

( I can't remember if they had pacers anymore )

If that had been a fast race from gun, he wouda been looking at something like 2"04-flat/low !!!

can you imagine the incredible abilty, M & 10k, needed, to run 2"04-flat/low in New York !!!