Does Ben True REALLY have a shot at a medal...

Just sayin... wrote:

I mean c'mon, I have nothing against him or anything, and I think he will go on to be successful, but he is a guy who jumped onto the scene out of nowhere by beating Sambu in a road 10k and earning a spot on the team in both the 5/10k. I think he has potential but does anyone really think he will be able to go up against guys like Farah, Ndiku, Koech, Gebrhiwet, etc... at his first international competition. Both the 5 and 10 are gonna be loaded with tactical veterans, so I just don't see a medal coming his way this time around

he didn't just jump onto the scene by beating Sambu. He burst onto the scene at 2013 world xc (placed 6th?) then running 13:02 at payton jordan invite.

this year, people are talking about him because not only has he taken some scalps in road races, but he also won the NY diamond league 5000m. no other americans have won a DL 5k. for both world xc and that 5k, conditions were bad. ben true has proven time and time again that he can out-perform others in bad weather (cold or hot).

that's why he has a shot at a medal. conditions won't be very good in beijing probably, and galen rupp hasn't been doing well this year, so ben true and ryan hill (who in my mind is more likely to medal than true) both have a decent chance at top 5.

The DL win was the slowest ever winning time in the DL. It was so slow it wasn't even a WC qualifying time.

reed wrote:

no other americans have won a DL 5k.

No other American MEN have won a DL 5k. Lauren Fleshman won the London DL 5k a few years ago.

Watered Down wrote:

The DL win was the slowest ever winning time in the DL. It was so slow it wasn't even a WC qualifying time.

The 2013 World Championship 5k was won in 13:26.

2012 Olympics was 13:41

2011 was 13:23

2009 was 13:17

2007 was 13:45

2005 was 13:32

Usually the race is won in slower than A standard time

13:02 pr, has competed well against top competition in the past, and has shown an ability to close really well his last 400, plus the DL win.

He's not a favorite to medal, but it would hardly be a shock. When you kick down Nick Willis, you have a shot against just about anybody.

Think about it this way, the only person in the world he CAN'T beat is Farah. Everyone else is vulnerable.

Hill may have a shot as well, although he might not be ready to hang with the top dogs yet. If he's there with 300m to go he's got game.

Realistically no. True has never ran fast in a competitive race; only paced time trials. Yeah he ran 13:02 last year but look what happened when he went to Europe that summer. Never faster, always got dusted by the Africans. There are going to be eight people in that race he has

Top 8 would be an incredible result for him. Hopefully all 3 Americans can get top 10.

He definitely has a shot, but so do like 12 other guys. By no means is he a favorite to medal, but with the scalps he's gotten this year you can't discount him. As others have said, I would not be shocked.

No.

Lets just say I would bet good money on Rupp beating True in the 5,000, never mind the 10,000.

ryan foreman wrote:

Lets just say I would bet good money on Rupp beating True in the 5,000, never mind the 10,000.

True is only running the 5,000 at Worlds.

I agree though that if he was in the 10,000 Rupp definitely beats him unless he is way off his game. At the 5000 right now though I give True the edge over Rupp, but it's really hard to say since Rupp hasn't raced since USAs and True only once. Someone else mentioned Ryan Hill and you can argue he has the best shot to medal out of the 3 of them (he won USAs after all). If the race is really really slow look to Hill, but if it's honest (or at least honest for the conditions) his chances go down relative to True/Rupp.

I want to say yes but my rational brain says no

Ben True = Bernie Sanders

I want them to win, I think there is an outside shot but I have to remain realistic.

He set the American 5K road record in April. The record. Not a world record, but still. Not sure why nobody likes to mention that. Even at the BAA 10K they shied away from talking about it. The AMERICAN record. Better than Lagat, anybody in the US.

Quietrunner wrote:

He set the American 5K road record in April. The record. Not a world record, but still. Not sure why nobody likes to mention that. Even at the BAA 10K they shied away from talking about it. The AMERICAN record. Better than Lagat, anybody in the US.

How often do top Americans run fast road 5ks? What is Solinsky's road 5k PR?

I'd say 8th place would be pretty disappointing for him. Of course 4th would also be disappointing, but in a different way. Just like when Pre and others were disappointed when he got 4th, despite the fact that it was a pretty awesome race. He's capable of a medal if he runs THE race of his life. It's possible!

Ben True has no chance, but Ben MF True has a great shot.

Watered Down wrote:

The DL win was the slowest ever winning time in the DL. It was so slow it wasn't even a WC qualifying time.

That New York DL 5k was run in 90+ degree weather.....no way you can expect them to run fast in those conditions

Soprano wrote:

ryan foreman wrote:

Lets just say I would bet good money on Rupp beating True in the 5,000, never mind the 10,000.

True is only running the 5,000 at Worlds.

I agree though that if he was in the 10,000 Rupp definitely beats him unless he is way off his game. At the 5000 right now though I give True the edge over Rupp, but it's really hard to say since Rupp hasn't raced since USAs and True only once. Someone else mentioned Ryan Hill and you can argue he has the best shot to medal out of the 3 of them (he won USAs after all). If the race is really really slow look to Hill, but if it's honest (or at least honest for the conditions) his chances go down relative to True/Rupp.

Based on performance this year one would put Hill above Rupp in the 5k. But if you base it off of past championship experience you may change the order. Granted Rupp normally performs better in the 10k and then gets out kicked the last lap of the 5k but he always makes it to the final and mixes it up. I put a big question mark next to True and Hill as they do not have as much experience in the big meets as Rupp.