Centro is proven to be a more savvy racer than Kiprop (that's even with Kiprop's recent toying with the field). Centro also has the goods to close hard over the last 800m, especially over the last 600. Obviously, Kiprop, barring disaster, will be in top shape. So if he runs his best, Centro doesn't really have a chance. But I am predicting Savvy Centro to blow the doors off everyone in a slow race, from way out. There are too many fast 800-speed guys this year (Souleiman, Mack-daddy, Kiprop, heck...even Willis...relatively) for him not to go hard with 600-500 left.
Also, this must be the best 1500 field running since the late 90's. Should be fun to watch.