Which guy wins? Which girl? What are their times?
Which guy wins? Which girl? What are their times?
This would be a train wreck. I presume most wouldn't finish.
I'm guessing the HSers who run the most mileage would have the best shot at winning. I know Grant Fisher doesn't run huge mileage, so I'm guessing Fisher could beat him, as he at least runs, what, 60- or 70-mile weeks over the summer? I could be wrong.
As for the girls, isn't that one girl in HS running marathons? Or did she graduate HS already?
Whoever runs the smartest race, none of these kids are over 75 mpw (or at least I hope they aren't) and a few seconds difference in mile/2 mile speed doesn't mean as much in a marathon. I would think these kids would over estimate how fast they could run it, and think they could average like 5:30's and in reality it's probably closer to 5:50's to 6:00. Also there will be some idiot that goes for it from the gun and runs like a 45 minute last 10k, guaranteed. The furthest they have run is probably 17 or 18 miles and that last 10k would be brutal. IMO tho winner would probably be around 5:55 pace so around 2:35. This would be very interesting though.
Connor Mantz... No doubt. Awesome aerobic engine. Great tempoer. Has run a handful of 1/2's with great success.
I suspect Gerry Lindgren would've beaten any HSer ever over the marathon, given his predisposition for humongous mileage weeks, although I know there's an official HS marathon record.
Who ran the most mileage in HS outside of him? I know Ritz ran a lot.
I'll throw Tanner Anderson into the mix. Seems like an aerobic beast.
#beentheredonethqt wrote:
Connor Mantz... No doubt. Awesome aerobic engine. Great tempoer. Has run a handful of 1/2's with great success.
If we take just the best runners, it'll be one with high mileage or long long runs. Like some hs kids do 18-20 mile long runs even though they're only around 70-80 mpw. That is enough to finish a marathon.
Victor E. Lapp wrote:
I'll throw Tanner Anderson into the mix. Seems like an aerobic beast.
#beentheredonethqt wrote:Connor Mantz... No doubt. Awesome aerobic engine. Great tempoer. Has run a handful of 1/2's with great success.
Anderson is a smart contender, but I think Mantz's higher mileage, proven ability over longer distance, and that experience he has gotten from truly racing half marathons would lead him to run smart race and end up on top. I really don't think fisher would be in it, since the reason people see him as great is because of the way he closes races. Marathons are done before the last 800 usually, and I don't see him still in it when he run over thirty miles less than a lot of the other guys.
Mikey Brannigan wins in 2:35. He has a pain tolerance that nobody on this site can imagine.
Here are the top 5:
1. Dressel
2. Ostberg
3. Mantz
4. Pollard
5. Anderson
All these guys are aerobic monsters.
TJR25 wrote:
...a few seconds difference in mile/2 mile speed doesn't mean as much in a marathon.
I dunno. I wouldn't be so sure about that. Although, I guess it depends on your definition of "much".
For an example, here's the marathon tiime difference between guys with equal 2-mile ability (8:45) and differences in mile ability.
3:55 and 8:45 = 2:40
4:00 and 8:45 = 2:32
4:05 and 8:45 = 2:24
The trickiest part might be figuring out their true mile/2-mile abilities. If you have splits for the races, you can try here:
http://timescalculator.appspot.com/optimizerthen find their marathon times here
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