What is Robby Andrews thinking?

Agreed

His Twitter followers said 1500

He is playing the odds that the 1500 is usually a jog fest and big kick. He has a big kick.

odds maker wrote:

He is playing the odds that the 1500 is usually a jog fest and big kick. He has a big kick.

Of course. But you should watch the last olympic trials. He gets schooled in the last 200. This is also the same guys and the 8 is a weaker field. He should play those odds instead.

Two hot takes here:

1. 3:34-3:35 will probably make the team. 1:45-1:46 in the 800 probably won't. Unless RA thinks he can throw down a 1:44, no point in running the 800.

2. Rounds. The reason Leo and Centro destroy USAs is because they are strong through the rounds. Centro is also a great time-trailer now as well. you have to throw PRs out the window when you're running heats. Andrews should be strong enough to run a couple 3:40s and still have a good kick for the finals.

You do have two 1:42 guys in Solomon and Symmonds who have done this over and over again. Symmonds has rounded into form in a short time in the past for trials. Solomon was recently dnf but he may have been cooked from the great workouts he was saying he'd had. Don't be surprised to see him in good shape. Boris Berian has run 1:45 twice and 1:43.84 this year. He was chasing Rudisha pretty well at the end in New York. Brandon Armstrong has run high 1:43. Now you also have a series of other guys who have run 1:44, including Ryan Martin, Charles Jock, and Erik Sowinski. Cas Loxsom has had a breakout year and could finally get the 1:44 that we've seen on the way. There are other guys as well that could be tough. You couldn't look at that field and say that Andrews was LIKELY to qualify. In the 1500m, he has little shot as well, but he does have a very good kick and the kick matters a lot in the slower races. Centro is a lock. Manzano has not missed one of these in a long time. Blankenship looks to be competitive on the world scene after the China meet and Pre. Merber is in 3:34 shape. Too bad Jager's not taking a shot here. There are numerous other strong guys. Andrews will have to prove himself in either race and he's chosen to go where his speed gives him an advantage. We'll see.

jjjjjj wrote:

You couldn't look at that field (800m) and say that Andrews was LIKELY to qualify. In the 1500m, he has little shot as well, but he does have a very good kick and the kick matters a lot in the slower races..

Which of these performances is the better one?

2015 3:57.15 Concord, MA 04 JUN

2015 1:45.98 New York (Icahn), NY 13 JUN

In which event did he win an NCAA title? Which event has he won a global medal?

Here is what he might be thinking. The 1500 is not actually a 1500; it's a 600 with an uptempo warmup of 900 meters. Robby is most geared towards races from 600 to 1000 meters so even if someone gets antsy and starts racing a little early, he's still actually racing at his distance. Any true miler should be running the 5000 - as we learned from the 3:54 at USATF 2013. Blankenship should have run the 5 if he wants to jog for a living because he will not place top three - or 5 - if he and the rest of the field go through 800 in 2:10 or worse.

Well Andrews ran the 1500 at the 2012 because he thought his chances of medaling were better than the 800. After trying (and failing) to run with Rudisha in New York, maybe he again thought his chances were better at the 1500.

He's not being paid to think. He's being paid to run.

Who the hell is saying the 1500m race is a 600m race?

From this it looks like it was a 200m race.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TANckAdSWQ

He probably won't make the final. What would indicate that Andrews would do better over the rounds than runners who clearly have better endurance like Blankenship, Leer, Casey, Torrence, Wheating, McNamara, Goegehan or even Merber?

I agree that he seems more suited for the 800.

But if he is better at the 1500 long term, then his is a good choice.

I wouldn't pick him to make the team in either event so he should pick the event where his future lies.

He could drop back to the 8 at any time since he already has a good feel for that event.

Adsafa wrote:

He probably won't make the final. What would indicate that Andrews would do better over the rounds than runners who clearly have better endurance like Blankenship, Leer, Casey, Torrence, Wheating, McNamara, Goegehan or even Merber?

If the rounds were 20 minutes apart, maybe that would be the case.

Our top rounds runners are Manzano and Centro. They are great at rounds not because they posses superior endurance to the rest of the field, but because of their kicks. They have 800m PRs of 1:44.56 (Leo) and 1:44.62 (Centro), which compared to everyone except for Wheating should be enough speed to get into a faster gear to qualify out of the prelims and semis.

Star wrote:

I agree that he seems more suited for the 800.

But if he is better at the 1500 long term, then his is a good choice.

I wouldn't pick him to make the team in either event so he should pick the event where his future lies.

He could drop back to the 8 at any time since he already has a good feel for that event.

Why is his future in the 1500? People always assume their future is in the longer event. Teg shouldn't have moved up to 10k. Webb should've stayed at 1500. Symmonds is better at 800 than 1500. Lomong was better than Leo when he was focused on 1500. Maybe he shouldn't have moved up... Besides the one fast time, I would argue Wheating is better at 800. Andrews should stay at 800 and try to improve, not give up and move to the 1500.

asdfadf wrote:

Why is his future in the 1500? People always assume their future is in the longer event. Teg shouldn't have moved up to 10k. Webb should've stayed at 1500. Symmonds is better at 800 than 1500. Lomong was better than Leo when he was focused on 1500. Maybe he shouldn't have moved up... Besides the one fast time, I would argue Wheating is better at 800. Andrews should stay at 800 and try to improve, not give up and move to the 1500.

I don't agree that the 800 is Wheating's best event but I agree in general. The best example is probably Jenny Simpson. Was never a miler, really ever, in her career until she had her break through senior year and even then she stuck with longer distances for another season.

He's not going to make it in either event so it doesn't matter.

I'm not so sure he is better suited for the 1500 either.

I'm just saying IF the 1500 is his future then it makes sense to run it now.

I feel the 800 is his better event.

But he's really in between.

And I see your point on Wheating.

But Wheating has made a number of 1500m teams at least.

Oh, and good 800m speed doesn't mean a better shot of winning a slow 1500 from a kick.

We always see the good 1500m runners winning slow 1500m races.

A good example is William Tanui.

1992 800 Olympic Gold mdalist.

Finished 5th in the 1996 Olympic 1500 which was going along at a pretty slow pace but Tanui couldn't outkick Morceli and Cacho and crew.

He should probably enter the 1k or 1200, I dont think too many are signed up for that. That would be Andrews best shot.