As the cross country is about to begin, the discussion starts back up: What are the top 5 states for distance runners? It is obvious that there are definetly some states that are better than others, but what is the best of the best? How can you tell? What is the best way to figure out? Not only for cross country, but on the track as well? Which state produces the best distance runners?
Let's first analyze cross country... with Footlocker and Nike, it is easy to count how many athletes and teams from each state qualified for those individual states.
First, Footlocker:
Virginia = 4
California = 3
Utah = 3
Indiana = 3
New York = 3
Michigan = 2
Illinois = 2
Connecticut =2
New Jersey = 2
Pennysilvania =2
Florida =2
Texas = 2
Oregon = 1
Washington = 1
Alaska = 1
Kansas = 1
Iowa = 1
Wisconsin =1
New Hampshire = 1
Tennessee =1
Oklahoma =1
Idaho = 1
Considering how tough the West and Northeast Regions are, it is extremely impressive that California, New York, and Utah were able to each produce 3 athletes.
A lot of states would, however, have more athletes on the list, such as Washington, who was missing Tanner Anderson as he competed in Nike Nationals, so this is not the perfect way to decide which is the best state.
Well, now let's look at the outdoor track... this will be how many athletes are under a hit certain marks. We will only look at the states that have at least 2 Footlocker Nationals qualifiers. While this may seem unfair, this is the easiest way to see which states have the most elite athletes.
1600m - Sub 4:15 (According to Milesplit)
CA = 31
IL = 18
UT = 17 **
NJ = 13
MI = 11
PA = 10
IN = 10
NY = 9
TX = 7
VA = 6
FL = 4
CT = 1
** = Altitude adjusted, 5 seconds taken off for altitude. 7 had broken 4:15 at altitude, with another 10 going sub 4:20
Now, let's look at the 3200, with sub 9:15 times.
CA = 57
UT = 17 **
NJ = 14
IL = 13
PA = 12
NY = 12
IN = 9
TX = 8
MI = 7
FL = 6
VA = 3
CT = 3
** = Again, altitude converted, taken 15 seconds off from a 9:30
From this, we can see that CA, UT, NJ, IL, PA, NY were in the top for both lists, so we will go with these states from here.
Looking deeper into the times of each of these states, we can try to see how many athletes posted elite times...
Sub 4:10 1600m:
CA = 9
UT = 7**
IL = 7
NY = 4
NJ = 0
PA = 0
Sub 9:00 3200m:
CA = 9
UT = 9**
PA = 6
NY = 5
IL = 2
NJ = 1
If we add up how many athletes in each state have gone 4:10 and 9:00, we get:
CA = 18
UT = 16
IL = 9
NY = 9
PA = 6
NJ = 1
From this system, we can see California and Utah are heads and shoulders above everybody else. From this, we can assume these are the two best states so far.
In order to get to the bottom, let's look at the future of these states... the class of 2017 and 2018.
Freshman 1600m Under 4:30
CA = 14
UT = 5**
Freshman 3200m Under 9:50
CA = 18
UT = 4**
Sophomore 1600m Under 4:22
UT = 13**
CA = 11
Sophomore 3200m Under 9:30
CA = 13
UT = 11**
Although California's freshman class dominated Utah's, it must be remembered that most Utah 9th graders compete at the Junior High level, and do not race in high school until their 10th grade season.
The lists above obviously show that both states have extremely bright futures... but which state is the BEST? Well, the only thing we did not look at is the population of the state.
California has 1.7 million high schoolers, while Utah has only 200,000. From this, it is easy to see that although California may have more athletes that have hit elite marks, Utah has been close to or better than California with 1.5 million less students to work from.
So, what state is the best state for distance runners? Although there is no doubt that the two BEST states are California and Utah, in my opinion, based on the population of Utah compared to California, as well as other factors Utah has playing against them (such as a shorter cross country and outdoor track season due to the snowy winters and cold weather), Utah is the best state for producing elite runners.
Agree or disagree?