low mileage sub 3 hour marathon

duathlete wrote:

Looking for advice on plausibility of attaining a sub 3 marathon in next 6-12 months. Current (recent) PBs 5km 17'57", 10km 38'35", half marathon 1 hour 27'54". Had a bit more in the tank for half marathon. Have been running for over 5 years.

Training for last 12 months = 24km a week running (13km, 6km and 5km), all ran around 4 to 4.5 mins/km, 3 weights sessions and about 150km of hard cycling. Last 3 months I introduced intervals 3x1km @ 3'30" with 1km jog rest between, still totalling 24km a week running. All those PBs are before introducing the intervals and I feel a bit faster since.

Am I fit or fast enough to run sub 3 hours and what is a plausible minimum weekly mileage that can get me there if I keep cycling and lifting? I prefer to minimize running mileage due to other sport commitments and past overuse injuries.

Very little chance. With low mileage you will experience large fall-off from the half marathon to the full. And your road times area already pretty slow for 2:59. I suspect even the McMillan calculator would project you out to much slower than 3, and McMillan assumes more or less optimal training through the distance.

Also, 17:57 --> 38:35 --> 1:27 indicates really lousy aerobic development. Huge slowdown. I hate to say it but I doubt you can do 3:10.

Finally, what is that workout? You do this thing over and over? 1km jog is far too long for recovery in what looks like a VO2max workout. Trying doing 3-4 x 1km with less than 3:00 of rest, not a freaking km of jogging!

Thanks for the feedback. What mileage do you suggest at a minimum is more compatible with a sub 3, and does the cycling come into the equation at all? Do you think it is worth doing that kind of interval work for the marathon?

I see on the daniels and McMillan calculators that my times are weaker on the longer distances... what half marathon time would give one more confidence they could achieve a sub 3 FM? Daniels calculator suggests 1:26 however as you've said it assumes appropriate training for each distance.

Thanks again for the advice.

There is a book called "first" from runners world that has people run three days per week, along with biking and weights. Some people like it, but it is not the route that is most traditional or likely to get you a sub 3.

What has your current weekly mileage been? My best guess is to increase that mileage by about 15 per week (gradually increase).

On this board you will variances in mileage recommendations based on personal experiences, observations and coaching. Talent and body weight plays a huge role. I needed to average over 70 MPW to break 3. I needed about 55-60 per week to run 1:27 and 3:10.

I have a 5k pr of 17:30, half 1:21:xx and I have ran couple of sub 3s. The first one was off 45mpw and the 2nd was off 40mpw over an 18 week build up. I usually run 20-30 mpw when I don't have a marathon planned.

I would say that you prob want to get the half time down to about 1:24 and get somewhere near the 40mpw range at a minimum. When I ran my sub 3s I would do some mile repeats every couple of weeks at about 6min pace. Jog 400 between sets and build up from 3 or 4 sets to maybe 8. I think another key workout was getting some marathon pace miles in on the long run. First half at easy pace (maybe 45-60 seconds slower than MP), 2nd half at marathon pace. I tried to get a mid week run in of 10 miles also at around 7min per mile.

Hope this helps. Good luck. The more miles the merrier!

jhjhkj wrote:

There is a book called "first" from runners world that has people run three days per week, along with biking and weights. Some people like it, but it is not the route that is most traditional or likely to get you a sub 3.

What has your current weekly mileage been? My best guess is to increase that mileage by about 15 per week (gradually increase).

On this board you will variances in mileage recommendations based on personal experiences, observations and coaching. Talent and body weight plays a huge role. I needed to average over 70 MPW to break 3. I needed about 55-60 per week to run 1:27 and 3:10.

I have the "First" book. Those programs are insane. Every week you have a track session, a tempo run, a hard long run and two hard crosstraining workouts.

Please describe, "150km of hard cycling"

Are you running 3 days, lifting 3 days and riding 150k on the 7th day?

While I would support the guess of 40 miles/wk or 65k/week for most people who ask this question, if you have a year or two with 150k bike rides on say 45 out of 52 weekends, you may have better fat burning than your 18 >38:30 and 1:28 suggest. Of course, most people who want to run a marathon are willing to drop some weight to do it more comfortably and safely.

A typical week would be 4 rides, 2x50km and 2x30km, all 180-220 watts average power. Usually 13km run and 50km ride in one day one after the other, with the other 2 runs and 3 rides on their own day. Occasional (monthly) 70-100km rides. In those week cycling km probably over 150km.

I am confident I'd be able to go 1 hr 23-25 for HM given other recent runs; recently ran 13km @ 3'59"/km in training.

At 40 I was riding 150 km commute per week on the mtb and running 3 runs per week, a long run of 2.5 hrs xc usually on tuesday.Thursday I could sneak in 15 mins so would roll through a fast 1600 and finish with 2 or 3 x 400m. Sunday I would typically race 5 to 10 km. I ran 2.57 off this. I ran 37.18 just before the marathon. Most weeks were in the range of 45 to 50 kms per week total, 30+ km, 3km, 15 kms.

I was only a 2.43 runner off far more serious work in my 20s. The long run was the key, it was a tough course and I ran it strongly. I twice ran 28 kms on flat roads in 2 hours in the lead up in place of the long xc.

Thursday was just keeping me sharp. Work and family kept me from running the other days but I had a 30 minute window on thursday. I tried to get 5 km before and after a sunday race.

The riding kept my overall fitness high and certainly was of value.

I ran 1:26:10 off of about 50 mpw. Your weekly low mileage is the issue here. Your 5k and 10k times are not as horrible as others are saying, but yes the 1:27:xx shows an aerobic drop-off. A 5k PR of 18:30-18:45 is consistent with about 3:00, depending upon what calculator you use, and so your 17:xx shows good speed fitness. I would worry less about track workouts, and more about longer runs and weekly mileage. Get accustomed to the grind of "steady" miles. That is what you will be doing in the marathon. Yes, you should push your body with some workouts, but that should not be your main concern. That would be of more concern to the 5k/10k runner.

everyone's different, but i've explored the bike and run training thing quite a bit and i definitely believe the biking helps, at least in my case.

i ran sub 3 in my mid 40's off of several consistent months of 35 mpw running and 60 mpw biking. the biking was all pretty brisk -- mostly group rides with bike racers. the running consisted of a couple of 18 milers during the term and a weekly 5 - 6 mile tempo (HM pace). at the time i was able to run a 1:25 flat HM. also could do a mid 18 5k and mid 38 10k. i seem to do better with longer distances, all things equal.

a year later i cut out biking altogether and ran about 45 mpw. did several hard 17 mile runs (maybe 15 secs slower than MP) and kept the weekly tempos. i was able to cut about 4 mins off of both my HM and M.

i've also tried running marathons on very little running (~15 mpw) and more biking (~100 - 120 mpw) and that put me at about 3:10 - 3:15 for the marathon and 1:30 for the HM.

i've been trying recently to run exclusively and run more miles. so far, i keep getting injured, though.

Excellent contribution here, bike and run guy. What type of injuries have you suffered? Judging by your descriptions, I have done some similar things in regard to training. Coming off of an injury, I feel that biking has helped me (I ride a stationary bike, though). I tend to think the bike/run thing may help to prevent injuries. What do you think?

i've had trouble with my calf, achilles and PF -- all on the same leg. it could be a form or gait thing, because i've otherwise felt okay on 55 - 65 mpw. i'm going to experiment with insoles/different shoes next to see if that helps. also, relative to my race times, i tend to run too fast in training. that's okay and probably helps me maximalize performance on lower miles, but really hurts me as i dial the mileage up.

i agree that the bike is a really useful cross-training tool. i think specificity is probably ideal, but life isn't always ideal, particularly when dealing with injuries. also, as i get older (late 40's, now), i'm not sure an all-running approach is the best thing for me. might be different if i was in my 20's, of course.

This is an interesting question which I am currently also trying to answer for myself.

I have a 10K PB of 35'54 while training 2 or 3 times a week, about 20-30km including one interval session.

My plan is to do my first half marathon in September and increase my weekly training up to about 40-50km. The goal is sub 1 hour 20.

In 2016, I plan to make a marathon debut in sub 3 hours. Ambitious for sure.

The required mileage depends a lot on the athlete's talent. It is probably the most important variable.

If sub 3 hr marathon is a real priority, I would add one running day and drop one weight day.

Fairly constant running workouts are necessary to approach marathon potential. Lance Armstrong (quite the cyclist and triathlete himself) ran 45 mins a day before his first marathon and barely broke 3 even with pacing help.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/06/sports/sportsspecial/06armstrong.html?_r=0

I have a running background and can run decent 5k times off of triathlon training with only 2 running days a week. However, for my half-marathon and marathon efforts, I had to ditch cycling and swimming for a couple months to adapt to running stress.

Also, you need 4 or 5 runs over 16 miles (25k) in the 3 months before the marathon to have shot of finishing race at goal pace. Long bike rides might help with overall cardio fitness but there is no way to replicate the pounding and exhaustion of runs longer than 90 mins.

4 day per week running schedule

Mon.- 10k steady

Wed.- 10k progression

Thur.- 8k steady

Sat. - Long Run (Build long run up as you train and alternate moderate distance 16-20k with 25-35k long run every other week to allow you to recover)

You can swap 8k days out with interval workouts by feel but at the 3 hr level interval workouts should be controlled and focused on mechanical efficiency rather than all out hammer sessions.

60k/ 35 miles a week at an honest pace for 6 months will provide respectable cardio and running specific strength. Obvious point, but consistency is the key.

My advice, run a half in the fall and try to break 1:20. Then target a winter marathon during the cycling offseason to allow your legs to sharpen up before sub 3 attempt.

A few key points:

1) People often ask how many miles they need to run to achieve a specific time. A more reasonable question might be, "how many miles to I need to run to achieve XX% of my potential?" A runner with 2:10 potential could probably run a 2:59 off 100km cycling and three 8 hour-long runs per week. Some people could run 80-100mpw for years and never sniff 2:xx. I had a friend put in 2 years of ~30mpw and never break 4:00. Male, mid-20's, not overweight. He was a muscle-bound guy and the training got him down to a 64 sec 400m and 20:00 5k, but something about distance just murdered him.

2) Given that, you still want to know what you need to do to hit 3:00. Your 5k shows decent leg speed, but the half is weak, as would be expected on such low mileage. If you wanted advice on getting the half in line with the 5k (1:23), I'd suggest 60 kmpw. That's far from optimal half training, but should get you there. Would that net you a 2:59 marathon? I doubt it. Maybe if you cycled easy most days, and 40km of the 60 were at 4:20km/mi pace.

Low Mileage Sub 3 provides a good layout. I won't duplicate that here.

Ran my first sub-3 at Boston off of 30 miles per week. I had a base and was lazy during winter, so I just ran 2-3 times a week, with one 18-22 miler, a 5-8 mile tempo run, and sometimes, another short run . This past fall, I ran 2:49 off about 20 mpw average, but it was on a several-minutes-aided course and I had run a 2:42 earlier in the year. If you're going to run infrequently, just make sure you have a long run (30k+) and a tempo run. If you never run longer than 15k, you won't have a chance at even breaking 3:30 because you'll be walking in the last 10k. There's no reason to do a marathon if you don't want to do long runs.

Based on your times, not going to happen

You're running about 13-14 miles per week, and a marathon is 26.2 miles. you have no chance

My feeling is that you'll need more mileage (as others have said) but no one knows.

In my best marathon shape I ran 18:16, 38:36, 1:24:06, 2:54:07. All of those times were within 2 months of the marathon. 65-75MPW. The only PR there is the marathon. My bread and butter was long intervals (6X1600, 3X3200 at HMP, short jog recoveries), tempo runs of 4 to 6 miles and lots of long, steady runs of ~20 miles. I did hardly any running at marathon pace.