Agreed.
I think Alan may need more open water swim. Pushing off the pool in flip turns for time trialing is not the same. His race times are not good. He has been at front drafting off 1 or 2 at small races. Bit at ITU he can't break free.
Same on bike. Needs elite level experience of a couple years.
The run will be there for him but he can't get there right now. Must be incredibly frustrating for him to be so close yet so far in another sport.
Would be nice to see a breakthrough for him. He needs more top speed at swim to have a chance I see very few people who increase their raw speed at anything after 30. It would be more than unusual if it happened.