I think Alan may need more open water swim. Pushing off the pool in flip turns for time trialing is not the same. His race times are not good. He has been at front drafting off 1 or 2 at small races. Bit at ITU he can't break free.
Same on bike. Needs elite level experience of a couple years.
The run will be there for him but he can't get there right now. Must be incredibly frustrating for him to be so close yet so far in another sport.
Would be nice to see a breakthrough for him. He needs more top speed at swim to have a chance I see very few people who increase their raw speed at anything after 30. It would be more than unusual if it happened.
"With 4:20/400 and 17flat 1500m current capability in the pool he "should" be exiting the water better than he does."
this is not correct. the swim conversions are correct but your assertion is not. alan is not currently swimming at this pace. if he were he would be getting out with the group obviously. his ability to get closer to his OLD times remains to be seen and he is certainly working on it. I agree with you about going out hard for the most part, but that is more about placement to the first turn than the entire swim itself. lets face it, the entire swim is nearly all out at this level. I been there too.
pool vs. open water is not a big jump and an easier one to make, without walls, underwaters, oxygen deprivation off walls. just needs to get on the feet, follow the bubbles, and be more savvy is all. would be nice to test him in the flume at the otc in the springs. not sure if chula juana has a flume.
draft legal racing, thanks to brownlees and gomez, have changed the sport from swim / run to swim / bike harder / run. this is not true in all races but essentially they are keeping things more honest at the front, forcing the slower swimmers to bike much harder if they want to bridge up.. or be in contention for any reasonable placing.
yes, they have split 14 for a 4.5k, whoopdedoo. get back to me when tri courses are always measured accurately, not +/- 5-10%. what's that, you want to protest? newsflash, johnny B just ran an open road 5K, dead flat, at 14 flat. yes, they went out "slow" which maybe cost him 5 sec, if you want to be generous. sorry pal, NOBODY can get off thge bike and run 14flat, not even alistair. period.
He's one of a few triathletes who can do this. Allistair and Jonathon Brownlee (GB) and Gomez (ESP) have all split b/w just under 14 and 14:15 a several times. Allistair being the best of them.