Will King Ches go down?

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Will it happen

5 years ago 03/05/2015 7:14pm CST

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I'm not saying he will by any means. I'm just saying that if there is a time for him to go down, this is it.

Jenkins is silly fit. 7:44 and it looked easy. Really easy. And they have identical 5k pr's. If it's honest he's got a good shot.

Who the hell knows what Soratos is gonna do. The kid has serious speed. Idk if its enough to overcome Ed but it'll be fun. And he will be fresh.

I won't be surprised if Ches gets 2/3 but honestly the guy could go 0-3 just as easily. He is an very very rare talent but I think they are stretching him just a bit right now. Much harder to defend a title than win the first.
kingchesisking

5 years ago 03/05/2015 7:18pm CST
re: Will it happen

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Only way he goes down is on his girlfriend or wife.
bigtool05

5 years ago 03/05/2015 7:44pm CST
re: Will it happen

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Are they really having him do all three (mile, dmr, 3k)? Four races in two days. He's going to be so fried by the time that 3k rolls around.
Pishposh

5 years ago 03/05/2015 10:46pm CST
re: Will it happen

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Only if he falls late in one of his races
notaduck

5 years ago 03/05/2015 11:00pm CST
re: bigtool05

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bigtool05 wrote:

Are they really having him do all three (mile, dmr, 3k)? Four races in two days. He's going to be so fried by the time that 3k rolls around.

he might survive the weekend but he'll go pro after this spring so he doesn't have to deal with this stuff anymore
King Cheese Whiz

5 years ago 03/06/2015 2:41am CST
re: notaduck

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Ches will be running three races, but he is running for Oregon. What that means is that he doesn't have to win any of them. He just has to work with his teammates to lock up a lot of points. If Oregon can pick up 20 pst in the 3K, another 20 in the 5K, 8 in the DMR and a few more inn the mile, they win the meet. No other team has the luxury of the quality depth that Oregon has. This leaves very little pressure on any one person, including the King.

Oh Please

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5 years ago 03/06/2015 6:35am CST
re: King Cheese Whiz

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King Cheese Whiz wrote:

Ches will be running three races, but he is running for Oregon. What that means is that he doesn't have to win any of them. He just has to work with his teammates to lock up a lot of points. If Oregon can pick up 20 pst in the 3K, another 20 in the 5K, 8 in the DMR and a few more inn the mile, they win the meet. No other team has the luxury of the quality depth that Oregon has. This leaves very little pressure on any one person, including the King.

While that might be technically true, pretty sure that someone doesn't "stop winning" just to be safe after winning everything in sight the year before. Winning is addictive.

And no, Ches is not losing.
Trialswatcher

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5 years ago 03/06/2015 8:31am CST
re: oh please

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I do not see Ches NOT winning because he would give it away.

I could see him being awfully tired running 4 races within 26 hours and someone "catching " him not fresh and possibly nipping him at 3K
DaveyK

5 years ago 03/06/2015 8:33am CST
re: Trialswatcher

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I say yes in the 3k to jenkins.
Will it happen

5 years ago 03/06/2015 12:09pm CST
re: DaveyK

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I don't think anyone has any doubts about him letting someone else from his team win. That's not even an option. But the top end of each event is as strong as it's been, particularly the DMR's and 3k which means he's going to have to give full effort in both.

I don't see a sit and kick happening in the 3k. Too many guys who won't want to let Ches sit around and drop a 25 FTW. Interestingly I don't think this is the best way for Ches to win the race. I think an honest pace helps him, his anaerobic systems will have already been tapped pretty hard but he won't have done much to his legs. Should be fun.

I think his best chance has to be the DMR. He's got other good legs and will be able to sit back and do what he does best, let others do the work (Not harping, I think its a great strategy and suits his running style well) until he thinks he can blow the doors off.

I think the Mile is where he loses. Ed had the chance to run much faster than 3:56 if he was ready to. Hell, that's only about a second or two faster than 2-4 of his teammates. But Soratos going 55 and closing like a man will be very difficult to combat, especially after Ed already having 2 races under his belt.
blargh

5 years ago 03/06/2015 1:14pm CST
re: Will it happen

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I'm not sure if you're right about the DMR. I know that they entered their weaker team with Gregorek leading off and ches anchoring. That team is at least 3 or 4 seconds behind the top qualifying school. So i could see him settling for a lower position in the dmr after being a ways behind and saving his energy for later races. I see his best chance at losing is in the mile. Although he has a great PR, his weakest event in high school was the mile, and he frequently made tactical errors. I see him taking the 3K because the longer the event, the more dominant he is. Also, Jenkins will be coming off the 5k (that he'll probably win), so I don't think he'll be fresh enough to take down ches.
confused...

5 years ago 03/07/2015 9:12am CST
re: blargh

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Why is Ches in the mile and not the 5k while Geoghegan is in the 5k but not mile? He has historically been a miler and not a 5k runner, while Ches is a better 5k runner. This makes no sense to me.

Jonathan Gault

LRC guru

5 years ago 03/07/2015 10:08am CST
re: confused...

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confused... wrote:

Why is Ches in the mile and not the 5k while Geoghegan is in the 5k but not mile? He has historically been a miler and not a 5k runner, while Ches is a better 5k runner. This makes no sense to me.

Because the 5k final starts 35 minutes before the DMR final on Friday night and Oregon believes (I think, correctly) that Cheserek on anchor gives them the best chance to win the DMR. If you have questions about pretty much any of Oregon's entries in this meet, the answer is "because they believe that's their best chance to maximize their points."

Geoghegan was fifth in the mile last year, but he can definitely do some damage in the 5k (13:43 pb; he was also 14th at NCAA XC in 2013). Putting him in the 5k helps balance their entries (three guys in the mile, three in the 5k) and enables him to double in the 3k/5k (mile/3k is a harder double as the finals are on the same day). Whether Will was a miler or 5k guy was actually the subject of lengthy debate between some members of the Dartmouth team...
blargh

5 years ago 03/07/2015 2:21pm CST
re: Jonathan Gault

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I was surprised by Geoghegan's range this indoor season, I guess I forgot his 14th at xc nats. His 3k with jenkins was very impressive, and it makes me wonder about his ceiling. At this point it seems like Jenkins will be the next US distance star, but I could see Geoghegan becoming a great pro. Both have range, but Jenkins seems to have a better kick and that clutch factor. Best case scenario; Jenkins could be the next Rupp, and Geoghegan could be the next Ryan Hill.
Will it happen

5 years ago 03/07/2015 8:56pm CST
re: blargh

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I like the prediction of Jenkins being like Rupp but I think Geoghegan is more of a Tegenkamp guy. People forget Teg's range, very impressive.
Hard to call someone the next Ryan Hill when he's only been a pro for less than 2 years. But there definitely are similarities.
Dewey_Runner

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5 years ago 03/07/2015 11:29pm CST
re: Will it happen

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Will it happen wrote:

I like the prediction of Jenkins being like Rupp but I think Geoghegan is more of a Tegenkamp guy. People forget Teg's range, very impressive.
Hard to call someone the next Ryan Hill when he's only been a pro for less than 2 years. But there definitely are similarities.

Maybe Jenkins is the next Jenkins and Geohegan is the next Geohegan.

But that's none of my business.
you heard it here first...

5 years ago 03/07/2015 11:37pm CST
re: Will it happen

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Soratos ran the third 800 in 4500m of intervals in 1:52 this Friday. Insanely fit and fast these days.
theOTHERwhitemeat

5 years ago 03/08/2015 12:19am CST
re: Dewey_Runner

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Dewey_Runner wrote:

Will it happen wrote:

I like the prediction of Jenkins being like Rupp but I think Geoghegan is more of a Tegenkamp guy. People forget Teg's range, very impressive.
Hard to call someone the next Ryan Hill when he's only been a pro for less than 2 years. But there definitely are similarities.

Maybe Jenkins is the next Jenkins and Geohegan is the next Geohegan.

But that's none of my business.

AMAZING INSIGHT!
NOP Skeptic

5 years ago 03/08/2015 3:15am CDT
re: you heard it here first...

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Hey, "you heard it here first..."

Where did you hear that from?

you heard it here first... wrote:

Soratos ran the third 800 in 4500m of intervals in 1:52 this Friday. Insanely fit and fast these days.
chupacabra

5 years ago 03/08/2015 9:48pm CDT
re: Will it happen

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The only people beating Ches will be wearing the same uniform