br0ski wrote:At 38, you dont have many more shots at PRing before age catches up with you.
This simply isn't true, at least without more information. Did the OP start running two years ago? Or has he been at it for 20 years? This stuff is important, particularly as one gets older. I started running at 30, and was still PR-ing at 38+. If I started at 40, I am confident I would have followed a similar progression.
Age does catch up with all of us, but it's almost common knowledge that a late starter will improve for something like 6-8 years or even more regardless of what age they were when they began (unless you are very, very old). So instead of your dismissive stance, you should be asking how long the OP has been training to improve.
Not trying to disrespect you in any way - just making a point that is valid.
To the OP: If you've been at hard for 5+ years, it's possible diminishing returns (and yes, age) are starting to become hard realities. You would know - are you down to almost never PRing anymore, and when you do, it's a couple seconds at best? Some higher mileage will help, but only if you can handle it. Not everyone, particularly at almost 40, can just jump into 70+ mile weeks. If you think you can - do it. Slowly. Mileage increases are almost always going to be the most likely improvement factor for the average runner. Get the Pfitzinger book Advanced Marathoning. Its a great book for the serious sub-3 guy looking to move to 2:45 - 2:50. He has a plan that peaks at around 70 miles/week, but most weeks are 55-65, so it's doable in your position.
Start running some HMs for a year as you prepare for your goal. Try to work your way down to 1:20. Long honest tempos helped me get there. Also, one hour progression runs starting at 4:20/km or so and ending at 5k pace or faster. Good luck.