Radcliffe record not an outlier: Athletics Illustrated

The percentage difference between the men's and women's 1500,3k, and 10k records are a lot bigger when you consider how obviously BS those Chinese times are.

TAA wrote:

The percentage difference between the men's and women's 1500,3k, and 10k records are a lot bigger when you consider how obviously BS those Chinese times are.

If doping controls can be tightened successfully (dubious as that prospect is at the moment), Paula will be entombed with Ma's army in the record books for years/decades to come.

I wouldn't say that this supposed analysis is really all that valid since the world records run by the Chinese women are very suspicious to begin with.

First, let me just toss out that I do NOT believe in the "short track theory" due to all the improbabilities associated with it. This includes the fact that all the men performed according to expectations, the female relay teams performed according to expectations, the same track was used for the Asian Games, and the women's 1500m times were actually replicated on a different track in 1997 that was also used for various international competitions.

However, since Ma has been caught drugging up his athletes (and a huge number of them to boot), I would say it's a safe assumption that a series of world records set by his athletes in a National competition with China-controlled testing are certainly not clean.

What this article basically states is that Paula's record falls perfectly in line with a set of records that we all know are doped.

Paula's 2:15:25 isn't the real record. As stated in the article she had outside assistance to draft and know she wasn't really racing the man who helped her. It was just a phenomenal TT, equivalent to about 2:17:35 in a standard female only race.

This is how the men will break 2:00:00 sooner than many expect. They'll set up a "windshield" of East Africans to take 2-3 other East Africans through 20+ at sub-2 pace and then let them fend for themselves. If Adidas was smart, they'd beat Nike to the punch and use all their top guys to do it as a publicity stunt.

Of all those records it would be difficult to figure out who is doped and who is not doped.

As there are residual effects to doing steroids and other PEDs, even a currently clean athlete isn't necessarily clean.

So with whom do we measure world records? Blood doping that was legal took place as early as the early 70s.

You would need to take a +2:10 1960s marathon record and a +2:25...or +2:30 women's just so you know they were for sure clean.

Original link:

http://athleticsillustrated.com/uncategorized/paula-radcliffes-world-record-in-the-marathon-21525-is-no-long-an-outlier-performance/

I ran my first marathon in 1961. The Mens' World Best was Abebe Bikila's 2:15:16.2 in the Rome Olympics. Women were not allowed to run marathons. Violet Piercy of Great Britain had run 3:40::22.0 in Chiswick on October 3, 1926..

Radcliffe's phenonemal time may have slowed down the progression of the world record. Women may deterred by the risk of running at that pace.

I'll agree that these stats showing radcliffe's record not to be an outlier...is the most damning thing I've read about her and possible drug use.

Every WR except possibly the W 5k was clearly set with drugs - how could Paula get to the same 10% level without drugs?

Maybe it's possible given the marathon is not a closed system like a track race - winds shift, male pacers help, courses can be short...but this is a bad set of facts fro radcliffe.

Dibaba's 5K record is pretty much in the same percentage range as all the Chinese marks, and Radcliffe's.

For a guy.

The ArmchairRunner wrote:

Radcliffe's phenonemal time may have slowed down the progression of the world record. Women may deterred by the risk of running at that pace.

LOL.

Tirunesh wrote:

Dibaba's 5K record is pretty much in the same percentage range as all the Chinese marks, and Radcliffe's.

This is what was the most interesting to me

Dibaba's 5k lined up right with the 3k and 10k Chinese marks... For a second I thought the 3k was going to be much stronger than the 10k, because the women's 10k seems very weak compared to the 3k, but they were both in the 10-11% range... I think if anything this might back up the fact that maybe the Chinese weren't doping, and we're just training really really hard...

NOP Skeptic wrote:

Tirunesh wrote:

Dibaba's 5K record is pretty much in the same percentage range as all the Chinese marks, and Radcliffe's.

This is what was the most interesting to me

Dibaba's 5k lined up right with the 3k and 10k Chinese marks... For a second I thought the 3k was going to be much stronger than the 10k, because the women's 10k seems very weak compared to the 3k, but they were both in the 10-11% range... I think if anything this might back up the fact that maybe the Chinese weren't doping, and we're just training really really hard...

beautiful - you think the chinese women weren't doping but Mary Cain and Shannon Rowbury are. Or at least Rupp? or is it Puskedra? Who exactly at NOP is more likely to be a doper than the chinese women?

Since the 5K record was very soft for awhile because the Chinese women weren't running that distance in 1993 or so, people like Defar and Dibaba have focused on going after that one.

But I think they, and a few other East Africans, are getting close to the point where a serious attack on that 10K record could be made...if there were any serious 10Ks anymore.

The article does not basically say that. YOU are saying that. People are capable of running those times today so it is certainly possible those Chinese records aren't doped.

Coach J wrote:

This is how the men will break 2:00:00 sooner than many expect. They'll set up a "windshield" of East Africans to take 2-3 other East Africans through 20+ at sub-2 pace and then let them fend for themselves. If Adidas was smart, they'd beat Nike to the punch and use all their top guys to do it as a publicity stunt.

And they could call it "The Berlin Marathon."

Really now? Women today are capable of running 3:50, 8:06, and 29:31? Give me the name of ONE active female runner who is capable of any of those times. Just one. Don't bother bringing up either of the Dibaba sisters or Defar. Every one of them is so far off of those times that it's laughable.

Last year, we had Genzebe Dibaba running 3:55 and 8:16, and people went wild thinking that she'd be breaking the Chinese records soon. Take a step back though, and you'd realize that 3:55 and 8:16 are FAR away from 3:50 and 8:06. It would be like a male runner pulling off something in the range of 3:30 and 7:29, and then claiming that said runner could take down the times of El Guerrouj and Komen.

In fact, Rupp with his 7:30 indoors is 10 seconds removed from Komen's 7:20 record in the same way that Dibaba's 8:16 indoors is compared to Wang Junxia's 8:06. Sure, percentage-wise, the comparisons are slightly further, but I think you get my point. You might as well relent that Rupp has a good chance of taking down Komen's record if you think that Dibaba even has a prayer of breaking Wang Junxia's.

You're not arguing for ANY reason other than the sake of arguing. Look at the facts for a moment:

~ The records were ALL set in a SINGLE meet

~ The meet contained ONLY Chinese athletes

~ Testing at the meet was controlled only by the Chinese governing body of athletics

~ All athletes who set the records trained under Ma Junren

~ When running in international meets, all athletes under Ma Junren were still formidable (a number of WC races and Olympic Medals were won), but could not reproduce any of the times run in China

~ Ma Junren was caught only a few years later supplying his training group with PEDs, and was banned as a coach

~ None of the times were ever approached again by any of the individual athletes who ran them

~ None of the times were ever approached again by any athletes in history, save for several women in ANOTHER Chinese meet a few years later

~ The careers of the athletes were quickly cut short a few years after the records were set

~ After being caught with PEDs, Ma Junren never again produced any athletes of the same caliber

Is it possible that the records are doped? Of course, although the probability is very very small given the smattering of information above. However, your statement that the times can be run by athletes today is absurd. Sure, 14:11 is a great 5K time, but we all know that being good at once distance does NOT correlate to being good at all of them. Again, Rupp's 7:30/12:58/26:44 combination is another good example of this. Fantastic 3K time. Fantastic 10K time. Yet somehow, despite all his attempts across the years, his 5K time is slower than that of Ritz and Solinsky, neither of whom could even approach either his 3K or 10K times.

agip wrote:

NOP Skeptic wrote:

This is what was the most interesting to me

Dibaba's 5k lined up right with the 3k and 10k Chinese marks... For a second I thought the 3k was going to be much stronger than the 10k, because the women's 10k seems very weak compared to the 3k, but they were both in the 10-11% range... I think if anything this might back up the fact that maybe the Chinese weren't doping, and we're just training really really hard...

beautiful - you think the chinese women weren't doping but Mary Cain and Shannon Rowbury are. Or at least Rupp? or is it Puskedra? Who exactly at NOP is more likely to be a doper than the chinese women?

Haha dude, calm down, my user name is just NOP Skeptic, I've been posting here for years just like you, that had nothing to do with this post

Coach J wrote:

Paula's 2:15:25 isn't the real record. As stated in the article she had outside assistance to draft and know she wasn't really racing the man who helped her. It was just a phenomenal TT, equivalent to about 2:17:35 in a standard female only race.

And how much time difference from a 2:17 marathon compare to the current record?