Fayetteville Manlius boys and girls have both qualified for NXN 9 of 11 years - does any other program have more?

weather man wrote:

don't think those teams have it 'easier' (think year round) than a warm weather climate, but presents a different set of 'challenges' than a warm weather climate. dealing with cold, wind, snow, ice, a good part of the year vs dealing with extreme heat and humidity during the day for a good part of the year. you can acclimate to anything if you really want to. what about the old school way of heat training in summer in preparation for a fall marathon. increased blood volume etc.

Certainly no place is perfect, and every place poses different challenges, but when you're talking about teams from different states, you also have to probably consider things like institutional support. Living in Florida, but having grown up in New England, I think it is fair to say that summers are more difficult for training down here, AND school athletes don't enjoy the same level of institutional support that you get up North (unless you play football). Cumulative effect?

Looking at individual NXN results are also suggestive. On the boys' side, all but two athletes come from northern tier schools. The two "southern" tier boys are TX. Otherwise, IL (3) IN (2) OH (1) WA (2) NY (1).

On the girls side, three girls from "southern" lattitude states: AL (1) TX (2). Then you see most of the rest coming from northern tier schools: SD (2) NJ (1) WA (1) AK (2). Finally two wins (by Sarah Baxter) for CA.

The Donger wrote:

Two wins trumps all. Arcadia #1 all-time until someone wins another.

2? Aris and FM have 9 wins. Game, set, match.

Typing too fast -- only one girl from Alaska...

rojo wrote:

The Donger wrote:

Two wins trumps all. Arcadia #1 all-time until someone wins another.

2? Aris and FM have 9 wins. Game, set, match.

I think he is just comparing guys, where they are the only boys team that has claimed 2 team titles.

North Central has 1 team title and 2 individual titles for boys.

Saw it. 'lombardi of teen running'. good article.

FM may be the top combined program and definitely the top girls program. However, they are not the top boys program. Arguably the second best, if not third or fourth.

Watchout posted on dyestat a breakdown of teams since the NXN regional era. Average score for each team since 2007 (using 330 for years they did not qualify). Here are the boys teams:

199.13 North Central WA (qualified 8/8 years with 8 Top Ten finishes, 3 Podium Finishes and 1 Championship)

229.63 Christian Brothers NJ (qualified 5/8 years with 4 Top Ten finishes, 2 Podium Finishes including 1 Runner-up finish and 1 Championship)

238.25 American Fork UT (qualified 6/8 years with 6 Top Ten finishes and 1 Podium finish)

244.75 Arcadia CA (qualified 5/8 years with 4 Top Ten finishes and 2 Championships)

251.25 Fayetteville-Manlius NY (qualified 7/8 years with 4 Top Ten finishes, 2 Podium finishes including 1 Runner-up finish and 1 Championship)

281.00 York IL (qualified 6/8 years with 3 Top Ten finishes and 1 Podium finish)

281.38 The Woodlands TX (qualified 7/8 years with 3 Top Ten finishes and 1 Podium finish)

285.63 Davis UT (qualified 5/8 years with 2 Top Ten finishes and 1 Podium finish)

287.38 Southlake Carroll TX (qualified 6/8 years with 2 Top Ten finishes and 1 Runner-up finish)

287.63 Albuquerque Academy NM (qualified 3/8 years with 2 Top Ten finishes and 1 Podium finish)

Here are the girls:

69.25 Fayetteville-Manlius NY (qualified 8/8 years with 8 Podium finishes and 7 Championships)

193.50 Saratoga Springs NY (qualified 8/8 years with 7 Top Ten finishes, 4 Podium finishes and 3 Runner-up finishes)

231.50 Fort Collins CO (qualified 7/8 years with 7 Top Ten finishes and 1 Podium finish)

236.63 Saugus CA (qualified 7/8 years with 4 Top Ten finishes, 3 Podium finishes and 2 Runner-up finishes)

251.13 Carmel IN (qualified 5/8 years with 5 Top Ten finishes and 2 Podium finishes)

268.38 Tatnall DE (qualified 6/8 years with 4 Top Ten finishes and 2 Podium finishes)

278.75 Wayzata MN (qualified 3/8 years with 3 Top Ten finishes and 1 Championship)

296.13 Davis UT (qualified 4/8 years with 2 Top Ten finishes and 1 Podium finish)

298.13 Southlake Carroll TX (qualified 6/8 years with 2 Top Ten finishes and 1 Podium finish)

300.00 Great Oak CA (qualified 4/8 years with 2 Top Ten finishes and 1 Runner-up finish)

I read the Watchout article on Dyestat. These numbers excludes results from NTN-NXN prior to 2007. This primarily impacts teams like York/Kroy and FM/Manlius XC, and greatly. So the numbers aren't really accurate, when looking back to the inception of NTN-NXN. FM placed 2nd in 2004, 3rd in 2005 (on tie breaker with Kroy). Rework the numbers to include all years, and FM rises to better than 5th on the boys side. York also rises, as they won the inaugural NTN in 2004, and placed 2nd in 2005.

This is true, but then you would also have to adjust the years prior to 2007 for a smaller field (20 teams compared to 22 teams).

Yes it affects their average, but it is when every team had a fair chance of getting in rather than it being completely up to a committee.

This year, if it was up to a committee, Wayzata, Ventura, and Edina may not have been invited. They were ranked pretty low by most rankings and all finished in the top 10.

They've done poorly in their post FM careers. I'm not saying there's cause/effect but your record is what it is.

Linx wrote:

They've done poorly in their post FM careers. I'm not saying there's cause/effect but your record is what it is.

Do you think the post-HS performance of the top 25 runners at Footlocker the past 10 years is any different than FM's top 5 each year?

Duke basketball often gets panned for not producing NBA talent, is that Coach K's fault?

Rojo, what this should tell you is that coaching matters much more than "talent." A few schools with no #'s advantages dominate the entire country, whereas talent, you'd think, would be much more randomly distributed such that the #'s would randomly favor some other school every year or two (as the top talents graduate from the previous champion).

those two top ten lists for boys and girls feature two or three altitude squads on each, some from Utah, one from Fort Collins, Colorado and one from Albuquerque, New Mexico.

Looks like Watchout reworked them to include the pre-regional era. Here is the new lineup. Not much different.

Boys:

234.82 North Central WA (wasn't invited pre-2007)

238.36 Fayetteville-Manlius NY (wasn't invited in 2006, but finished 3rd in '05 and 2nd in '04)

244.55 Christian Brothers NJ (wasn't invited in 2006, but finished 8th in '05 and 11th in '04)

247.55 York IL (10th in 2006, 2nd in '05 and won the inaugural meet in '04)

263.27 American Fork UT (wasn't invited pre-2007)

268.00 Arcadia CA (wasn't invited pre-2007)

285.00 Albuquerque Academy NM (7th in '06, and 10th in '04)

286.64 The Woodlands TX (12th in '06 and 7th in '04)

289.18 Royal CA (2nd in '06, 6th in '05, 4th in '04)

290.27 Mead WA (hasn't made it in the NXN Regional era, but was 5th in '06, 4th in '05 and 3rd in '04)

Girls:

123.18 Fayetteville-Manlius NY (Won it in 2006, wasn't invited in '05 or '04)

187.18 Saratoga Springs NY (Wasn't invited in '06, finished 2nd in '05 and won in '04)

258.36 Fort Collins CO (wasn't invited pre-2007)

262.09 Saugus CA (18th in '06, wasn't invited in '05 or '04)

271.55 Southlake Carroll TX (3rd in '06, 3rd in '05 and 8th in '04)

272.64 Carmel IN (wasn't invited pre-2007)

282.00 Tatnall DE (12th in '06, wasn't invited in '05 or '04)

292.73 Wayzata MN (wasn't invited pre-2007)

293.09 Yankton SD (5th in '06, 5th in '05, 3rd in '04)

296.00 Hilton NY (2nd in '06 and won it in '05, hasn't qualified during the regional era)

Not much change from a global perspective, but in answer to this thread's main question, "is FM the best combined XC program, the best boys XC program, and the best girls XC program, in history?", the inclusion of the formative years of NTN-NXN matters much.

Inclusive of all of data since the inception of NTN-NXN, FM jumps from #5 all time to #2 all time on the boys side. FM remains #1 all time on the girls side. FM is hands down, the best combined XC program in history.

Bill Aris is hands down (not arguably, there is no debate), the best and most successful coach in the history of HS cross country. By light years. 25 kids per season, per team. Competing with Lacrosse, Soccer, Football, Baseball, Field Hockey for year round runners. The talent pool is small, within those 25 person squads. There's your reason for "only" the few noticeable big time splashes in NCAA. The rest of them "only" go on to become successful in the more important of life's endeavors, their careers. Incredible. Books should be written. This is far above and beyond the work of Wetmore at Colorado. This is life stuff. Yes, the Lombardi of "teen" running. Also, the Lombardi of "team" running. Truly, "The Lombardi of Running", period.

Limited Info wrote:

Bill Aris is hands down (not arguably, there is no debate), the best and most successful coach in the history of HS cross country. By light years. 25 kids per season, per team. Competing with Lacrosse, Soccer, Football, Baseball, Field Hockey for year round runners. The talent pool is small, within those 25 person squads. There's your reason for "only" the few noticeable big time splashes in NCAA. The rest of them "only" go on to become successful in the more important of life's endeavors, their careers. Incredible. Books should be written. This is far above and beyond the work of Wetmore at Colorado. This is life stuff. Yes, the Lombardi of "teen" running. Also, the Lombardi of "team" running. Truly, "The Lombardi of Running", period.

I completely agree… Aris is hands down the best HS coach ever if the measuring stick is national championships. I absolutely respect what he has done with his girls program. Eight NATIONAL titles in 9 years is impossible to fathom. And Aris deserves all the credit for developing a program that has completely dominated girls XC for a decade. I'm sure his success will continue and I can't imagine any program ever matching his string of titles.

However, let's look at your other claims to his greatness. You cite that he competes with other sports… EVERY coach in the nation competes with other sports for athletes. This is not a novelty of FM. His squads are small, but that's the way he chooses to run his program. He does not want numbers for the sake of numbers. He does not care about the 29 minute girl who hopes to get down to 24 minutes by the time she graduates from HS. That's fine, but let's not act like Aris only gets 25 girls out for his team.

This is your best line… "The rest of them "only" go on to become successful in the more important of life's endeavors, their careers." Honestly, it's almost comical. There are countless, great HS coaches who have had tremendous success at their state level who have also had countless athletes "go on to become successful in the more important of life's endeavors, their careers." Please don't act that Aris has corned the market on being a great influence on athletes beyond performance. Hell, one could argue that there are many coaches who've done a better job of developing HS athletes to be successful at both the HS and college level AND those same athletes have gone on to be "successful in the more important of life's endeavors, their careers."

Finally, assuming he's been a bigger life influence than Wetmore or the other countless HS and college coaches that have shaped young people is flat out wrong. Ironically, using Wetmore as a comparison is quite fitting in that Wetmore does everything in his power to keep his success about his athletes and not about him. As great as his is, this is simply not true of Aris. It's about the athletes AND him. Any claims otherwise is ignoring the reality.

Aris' results are mind boggling, but let's just leave the hyperbole out of it.

Thou dost not know what thou ist talking about in one regard.

Whilst Aris is outgoing at times and demonstrable in interviews, his introspective and Wetmore-like manner of putting athletes ahead of himself and in the limelight is well known to both his athletes and parents for all the years he has coached. Furthermore, to borrow from a Wetmore quote following ncaa's about u of colorado.....'with FM/Manlius, XC is ONLY about team'. That is Aris to the core as well.

Of course, if one judges him based solely upon the interviewers mike as it is so often thrust in front of him, and the fact that his teams and he are so often in the limelight due to their incredible success, one could come up with your assessment of him i suppose. That is off base though, and merely a conclusion of answering so many questions to so many interviewers on demand over the years as a result of their program's consistent standard of success.

Nevertheless, those who truly know him over the years know otherwise. That is, he is as selfless as the philosophy for team success as he preaches, and that is based upon selflessness for the good of the team and not himself.

Also, the assertions of Aris being 'the best ever' is in fact the opinion of many but never once has that come from his mouth nor has he suggested that to any of us who know him. Don't hold him accountable for others opinions of himself by downgrading him as a result. A leader and motivator yes, but definitely not a self promoter.