My best casual fan guess is that Oregon stays ahead of Syracuse, but what about 'nova and Ok State?
My best casual fan guess is that Oregon stays ahead of Syracuse, but what about 'nova and Ok State?
Syrcause by a long shot. As usual Oregon is overrated and the Lame Duck Oregon Fanboys are here drooling over there non essential team.
dkny64 wrote:
My best casual fan guess is that Oregon stays ahead of Syracuse, but what about 'nova and Ok State?
That's a good point about Villanova and OK state, I can definitely see them beating Oregon. I think Jenkins and Cheserek make the Ducks seem a lot better than they actually are in the eyes of a lot of people; having two low-sticks is always nice but doesn't count for much when runners 3 through 5 aren't up to snuff, especially if one of the top 2 have a bad day.
I think Cuse' with their full squad will come out on top over Oregon though, especially if Knight peaks well with that extra week of training from skipping regionals.
Pulling for Syracuse, betting on Oklahoma State
Oregon is better at the top, but 4/5 are important and if Oregon's falter at all they end up with a much higher score and Syracuse beats them.
Another wild card is that the weather has been cold enough to possible freeze the top several inches of ground. It is supposed to have freezing rain in the early morning before the race and maybe cold rain during. The conditions might be pretty bad in terms of footing. Hassan Mead got injured on this course a while back and any number of teams could lose a star or number 4/5 runner and suddenly pick up and additional 10, 20, or 30 points (both Colorado and Syracuse seem to be deeper and might have a bit better insurance from a mishap).
Justyn Knight for the MFing win!
Syracuse will beat Oregon, but neither will be 2nd.
NAU is the "sleeper" (since there ranked 10th). I see them taking 2nd maybe even an upset?
2. Syracuse
3. OK State
4. Oregon
Catch your breath wrote:
NAU is the "sleeper" (since there ranked 10th). I see them taking 2nd maybe even an upset?
lol.
Another factor to consider is that as the distance moves up to 10k for nats teams like Oregon and Nova with middle distance guys filling up the roster after their top two runners will be at even more of a disadvantage to the more long distance heavy squads.
10,000m XC wrote:
Another factor to consider is that as the distance moves up to 10k for nats teams like Oregon and Nova with middle distance guys filling up the roster after their top two runners will be at even more of a disadvantage to the more long distance heavy squads.
Good point.
Oregon, once again will outperform the LR prognosticators, and will probably finish second. Oregon's team behind Jenkins and Cheserek is made up of guys who are more 10K type runners this year. For example, Pepiot, Winn and Melancon are likely to get stronger at the longer distance. The poster who commented otherwise isn't very much aware of the people running for Oregon this year.
I think you meant Pepiot, Leingang and Melancon. Winn is much more middle distance, while Leingang is suited for the 10K.
Butler Projections are out:
http://butlerjm.wix.com/butler-projections#
!national/cigy
Cuse beats Oregon by 25. So I'll take Cuse for 2nd. Always trust in the Butler projections. (Unless of course there aren't enough data points - like for Kate Avery.)
I predict the "winner" of the battle for second place will be....
Colorado!
That's right. Syracuse is going to pop a good one and will it all!
1. CU
2. OK State
3. Oregon
I just think Cuse's top guns will be too far back to catch Oregon or Okie state on points. Nationals is the deepest race of the year up front, by far, which means your top guns matter more and depth doesn't help as much.
As expected, nonsense from eharmony: "Syrcause by a long shot. As usual Oregon is overrated and the Lame Duck Oregon Fanboys are here drooling over there non essential team".
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This from a pony who should look for a second trick one of these years. And a pony who still hasn't learned the difference between "there" and "their". Where did this joker go to school?
Like that one week of training really made a difference in his fitness lololol come on man hahahah
Dewey_Runner wrote:
dkny64 wrote:My best casual fan guess is that Oregon stays ahead of Syracuse, but what about 'nova and Ok State?
That's a good point about Villanova and OK state, I can definitely see them beating Oregon. I think Jenkins and Cheserek make the Ducks seem a lot better than they actually are in the eyes of a lot of people; having two low-sticks is always nice but doesn't count for much when runners 3 through 5 aren't up to snuff, especially if one of the top 2 have a bad day.
I think Cuse' with their full squad will come out on top over Oregon though, especially if Knight peaks well with that extra week of training from skipping regionals.
Butler Projections clearly are nonsense, they have Tiernan at 34 raw score and McEntee 71st
Last year they were 9 and 27
Now, could they run much worse? I guess, but that is what it would take for these projections to hold water.
I would figure Tiernan for top 10 , he has not had to step on the gas yet and is better the further he goes,.McEnteee has great talent and could run inside of top 25 if he catches it right.