I don't think he will break 2:08, ever. If you look at his progression from the mile to 5k to the 10k, it's pretty clear he would struggle at the Marathon because he lacks the hard core endurance required to run sub 2:08.
I don't think he will break 2:08, ever. If you look at his progression from the mile to 5k to the 10k, it's pretty clear he would struggle at the Marathon because he lacks the hard core endurance required to run sub 2:08.
26:44
He ran a 60:30 half marathon in 2011 without even doing HM-specific training, beating Meb, Abdi, and Hall by a staggering 2+ minutes. Mind you, this was during Hall's lead-up to Boston, where he went on to run 2:04. You're crazy if you don't think Rupp can eventually run 2:03.
There is no way to be certain unless he tries it.
Many have successfully made the transition but others, like Mo Farah, were not.
Since Mr. Rupp has not attempted it he most likely believes he would not be successful.
If it ain't broke don't fix it.
Go Browns! wrote:
He ran a 60:30 half marathon in 2011 without even doing HM-specific training, beating Meb, Abdi, and Hall by a staggering 2+ minutes. Mind you, this was during Hall's lead-up to Boston, where he went on to run 2:04. You're crazy if you don't think Rupp can eventually run 2:03.
Ok cool! Ritz ran 60:00 and he sucks at the marathon and Tadese is the world record holder and he really sucks at the marathon, so no one is crazy for thinking that it's unlikely that Rupp will run a 2:03.
Go Browns! wrote:
He ran a 60:30 half marathon in 2011 without even doing HM-specific training, beating Meb, Abdi, and Hall by a staggering 2+ minutes. Mind you, this was during Hall's lead-up to Boston, where he went on to run 2:04. You're crazy if you don't think Rupp can eventually run 2:03.
2:03? Wtf?
Go Browns! wrote:
You're crazy if you don't think Rupp can eventually run 2:03.
This is a good laugh.
Realistically I think Rupp could run 2:06/5. Not in his debut, but eventually.
He has run 12:58 and 26:44, closing out the latter very quickly. He has greater aerobic capacity than middle distance prowess, even though he is very good at the middle distances. That is why I think he will do well at the marathon.
But certainly not 2:03 well.
Vincente wrote: If it ain't broke don't fix it.
Marathons ain't broke. They have "a lot" more money to offer than track 10ks.
doo doo wrote:
Go Browns! wrote:You're crazy if you don't think Rupp can eventually run 2:03.
This is a good laugh.
Realistically I think Rupp could run 2:06/5. Not in his debut, but eventually.
He has run 12:58 and 26:44, closing out the latter very quickly. He has greater aerobic capacity than middle distance prowess, even though he is very good at the middle distances. That is why I think he will do well at the marathon.
But certainly not 2:03 well.
Agreed. I also think there's basically 0% chance Rupp makes a marathon debut before Spring 2017 and no guarantee a Rupp marathon debut happens then [or ever]. Salazar has developed Rupp for the track and doesn't seem to have much interest in retooling him for road racing.
Go Browns! wrote:
He ran a 60:30 half marathon in 2011 without even doing HM-specific training, beating Meb, Abdi, and Hall by a staggering 2+ minutes. Mind you, this was during Hall's lead-up to Boston, where he went on to run 2:04. You're crazy if you don't think Rupp can eventually run 2:03.
^ Certainly in the running for stupidest post in the history of LRC.
Depends on what you mean by "successful". If it means the top American, there is not much doubt that he will be able to pull that off. Hall and Ritz do not appear to be returning to form and Meb is aging out. The rest of the up and coming US marathoners can't even break 2:10.
If it means winning Olympic medals and major marathons, there is definitely evidence that he has the talent. But with so many E. Africans going straight into the marathon, there is no limit on the supply of 2:04-06 runners to compete with Rupp. Back in the days of Tergat and Geb, the major marathons were reserved for runners who showed prowess on the track. Anyone who had decent road times would get passed over by the big races for people moving up from a successful track career. Thus the pool of top talent was smaller in the marathon. Now, the agents in E. Africa are sending everyone into the marathon and are only reserving a few standouts for the track.
Precious Roy wrote:
Depends on what you mean by "successful". If it means the top American, there is not much doubt that he will be able to pull that off. Hall and Ritz do not appear to be returning to form and Meb is aging out. The rest of the up and coming US marathoners can't even break 2:10.
If it means winning Olympic medals and major marathons, there is definitely evidence that he has the talent. But with so many E. Africans going straight into the marathon, there is no limit on the supply of 2:04-06 runners to compete with Rupp. Back in the days of Tergat and Geb, the major marathons were reserved for runners who showed prowess on the track. Anyone who had decent road times would get passed over by the big races for people moving up from a successful track career. Thus the pool of top talent was smaller in the marathon. Now, the agents in E. Africa are sending everyone into the marathon and are only reserving a few standouts for the track.
I'd say it's even more extreme - the agents are sending anyone who shows promise in the track 10000m to the marathon and only leaving the laggards on the track. I'm thinking guys like Wanjiru and more recently Jeilan and L Rotich.
By the time he debuts, the NOPe sauce should be perfected. Debut in 2:01. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA... this joke is still funny right?
But seriously folks... With really no one new with even remotely his potential, all the US eggs are in the Rupp basket. So when people say he'll run
If you discount all the Africans (because we know basically all of them except Meb are on PEDs), then Rupp certainly has the potential to be the best Marathon runner on the planet.
I see his ceiling somewhere around 2:04/2:05 so, right there where Hall is.
Rupp is a tremendous distance runner and can excel wherever he's at, especially compared against Americans, past and present. Now whether he could finish second or better at a marathon major..
Also, Alberto continually points out that Rupp is an excellent overall athlete (played him once in basketball) and that he has tremendous leg speed.. maybe not at the elite 1500m level, but can still close 5/10ks pretty fast (although as some LRers will point out, not fast enough )
I can't see Rupp ever going below 2:06 unless he gets a Ryan Hall-esque Boston conditions day. He's 28 now, by the time Rio 2016 rolls around he'll be 30 and pushing 31. They'll take some off time after Rio to gear up for whatever is next- maybe the marathon. Likely debut at 32 at the earliest. I can't think they would rush him into a debut like Mo did after seeing what happened there.
Probably will take him at least 2-3 marathons to figure it out and he's looking at 34 at least until he can maximize his potential. Not that young anymore. For every Meb and Lagat there are countless others like Webb, Solinsky and Teg who are finished by 29.
Around 30 seems to be when the injury bug hits and when it does it hits a lot harder than if he was 23, hope he stays healthy but who knows. I just see 2:06-2:08 his likely ceiling. But given how Salazar coaches marathoners he may be more 2:08-2:10.
glxccc wrote:
Also, Alberto continually points out that Rupp is an excellent overall athlete (played him once in basketball) and that he has tremendous leg speed..
Yes but does he have FOOT speed
No way his ceiling is 208-210.
He's on the road to be the best natural born american distance runner.
He's missing just a few things to complete his resume. I say a win at a big marathon or a very fast marathon, even if he doesn't win, it put's him right up there or at least in the conversation.
SmalITimeTC wrote:
I can't see Rupp ever going below 2:06 unless he gets a Ryan Hall-esque Boston conditions day. He's 28 now, by the time Rio 2016 rolls around he'll be 30 and pushing 31. They'll take some off time after Rio to gear up for whatever is next- maybe the marathon. Likely debut at 32 at the earliest. I can't think they would rush him into a debut like Mo did after seeing what happened there.
Probably will take him at least 2-3 marathons to figure it out and he's looking at 34 at least until he can maximize his potential. Not that young anymore. For every Meb and Lagat there are countless others like Webb, Solinsky and Teg who are finished by 29.
Around 30 seems to be when the injury bug hits and when it does it hits a lot harder than if he was 23, hope he stays healthy but who knows. I just see 2:06-2:08 his likely ceiling. But given how Salazar coaches marathoners he may be more 2:08-2:10.
Aging is a crap shoot. Geb and Tergat had pretty decent marathon careers despite not running it til their 30s.
It is easy to pick on Salazars coaching but some of it is just the runner. Some guys do well at the half but can't run marathons while other guys get better as the distance goes up. Until Rupp runs a marathon, we will not know what group he is in.
There's no guarantee that he will be, obviously if you look at the results of his training partner Mo Farah. Success at 10k is no correlation to a distance more than 4 times greater. If that were true, then all the top marathoners would be mid-26 10k runners. But most of them have pretty modest track credentials -- they are marathon specialists. People like Tergat and Gebrselassie are the exception, not the rule.
Still, Ryan Halls's decline has exposed just how thin American male marathoning is right now. If Rupp turned to the marathon after 2016 he could very well be the best American marathoner just by default.