D2: Top 4
D1: Top 25.
If GVS is legitimately a top 4 program in D2, then North Central has to be considered a top 4 threat for D2. Yes they race a 10k at nationals and yes D2 nationals is 2 weeks after D3 nationals- however, North Central not only beat GVU 36-69, they put 5 guys in front of their 2 (and nearly 7 in front of their 5). Everyone in the nation knows North Central is a "strength" program so I don't think the shift to 10k would affect them nearly as much as everyone seems to think, in fact, I think it would probably help them.
D1 is a little bit tougher to say where they would fall. They would be in the Midwest region, meaning they would fall somewhere between 3-6 behind OK State, Oklahoma, and possibly Tulsa. The question is if they get 4th, would they get out?