Notre Dame Invite

LaserJet wrote:

RACE IS TOMORROW, PREDICTIONS?

WHO IS EVEN GOING?

I predict Notre Dame will not win.

I'm not sure if they're this good but I'd love to SUU continue their great season with another national-quality win.

Canisius College ftw again!!!!!!!!!!!111111!!!!!!!!!one!!!!1!!!!!!

da running mon wrote:

I predict Notre Dame will not win.

Notre Dame is God awful. They'll be in the bottom half behind at least 6-7 mid majors. It would be funny if SUU won after their coach interviewed at ND and got turned down.

Suu wrote:

da running mon wrote:

I predict Notre Dame will not win.

Notre Dame is God awful. They'll be in the bottom half behind at least 6-7 mid majors. It would be funny if SUU won after their coach interviewed at ND and got turned down.

I wouldn't go that far. There are 25 teams in the Blue race. Of the 25, several are nationally ranked: BYU (10), NC State (16), Tulsa (18), Michigan (19), Princeton (20), SUU (22), Eastern Kentucky (23) and Fl State (24). Also, Butler is ranked ahead of ND in the Great Lakes region right now.

So, I see ND coming in about 10 - 12. I think Penn is better than ND, for example. If ND falls below 12th, you'd be right and they'd be in the bottom half.

Suu wrote:

da running mon wrote:

I predict Notre Dame will not win.

Notre Dame is God awful. They'll be in the bottom half behind at least 6-7 mid majors. It would be funny if SUU won after their coach interviewed at ND and got turned down.

Why would it be funny? They should beat ND - they are the better team. That doesn't mean that their coach should've got the job. I really like the Sparks hire but he hasn't even been there two months, and they graduated almost their whole top 7 last year.

But they won't be a factor so no use making the thread all about them. It's hard to bet against BYU, but I'm anxious to see how NC State and Princeton perform.

times will be slow, heavy rain predicted, 1-2" rain, wet course, should be interesting.

da running mon wrote:

I wouldn't go that far. There are 25 teams in the Blue race. Of the 25, several are nationally ranked: BYU (10), NC State (16), Tulsa (18), Michigan (19), Princeton (20), SUU (22), Eastern Kentucky (23) and Fl State (24). Also, Butler is ranked ahead of ND in the Great Lakes region right now.

So, I see ND coming in about 10 - 12. I think Penn is better than ND, for example. If ND falls below 12th, you'd be right and they'd be in the bottom half.

You forgot New Mexico(15) and Colorado State(25) from the top 25, plus Air Force(RV). Notre Dame is horrible this year. As mentioned above they lost to Canisius already and they'll be lucky if they are top 10 and more likely 12-15.

get rish wrote:

Why would it be funny? They should beat ND - they are the better team. That doesn't mean that their coach should've got the job. I really like the Sparks hire but he hasn't even been there two months, and they graduated almost their whole top 7 last year.

I said it would be funny if they won the meet not funny if they beat Notre Dame.

It would be funny, ironic and awkward (though presumably gratifying to Houle) to watch a Notre Dame representative hand him the trophy.

BYU is tough so it probably won't matter, though there is some humor in them handing the trophy over to the Mormons also.

Suu wrote:

You forgot New Mexico(15) and Colorado State(25) from the top 25, plus Air Force(RV). Notre Dame is horrible this year. As mentioned above they lost to Canisius already and they'll be lucky if they are top 10 and more likely 12-15.

You're right. OK, so they're going to have to run well to stay out of the cellar.

The NCI results aren't indicative of strength of the ND team, though. They didn't run their top two, from what I understand.

That said, I agree that breaking the top 10 would be good for them.

First and foremost, I would like to apologize for any overlooked teams or runners. There are many and I was not able to be as thorough as I might've hoped given my busy schedule. Finally, understand that these are subjective views of myself so please interpret them as you will.

Top to Bottom:

BYU #10

Witt 28:30 10k

Nelson 28:40 10k

Harper 28:50 10k

Fletcher 8:53 SC

Tracy 8:53 SC

New Mexico #15

Zacharias 14:06

Engholm 8:50 SC

Graham 9:07

Callahan 3:39

Shelley 3:43

Matheson 3:43

NC state #16

Crawford 13;49

Roberson 14:20

Wolfe 3:49

Hanson 14:30

Parsons 14:34

Michigan #19

Ferlic 8:36/13:55

Smoragiewicz 14;30 man, did his homework this summer tho

Rayyan 14:00

Beams 14:20

Pappas 29:30

Flanagan 14:20

Baumgarten FR/top 5 guy for mich @ last meet

Posada 29:30

Albaugh 29:40

Princeton #20

Owens 8:46 SC

Paulson 3:44

Pons 14:24

McDonald 14:30

Another slew of guys around 14:30.

SUU #22

Jewkes n/a - he's hot right now! (29'55/14'21)

Tate 14:17 5k

Ibrahim 14:25 5k

Rhoton 14:28

Szogi 14:11 hungarian

Right now it seems like SUU and Michigan have an upper-hand but I think that this is just because we've seen them in action and know what they're made of and who did their homework this summer. Their transfers, freshman and redshirts are all quantifiable assets to some extent where as teams like BYU and New Mexico will show off for the first time all season. Don't kid yourself that racing sharpness won't come into play. These are teams full of inexperienced talents and guys getting in their first real efforts. Its easy for a crucial guy to fall flat under those kind of conditions so I still expect SUU and Michigan to shine through. Still, it's hard not to see the upside of a team like BYU who has three sub 29 guys up front and a couple of proven steeple guys up front. This is not to mention the slew of guys who could come from 'nowhere' after being given time to build up their strength after a mission.

Michigan has a couple of low sticks in their top two but so does SUU and New Mexico. I still see their pack being tighter and their race experience coming through for them. Not to mention that SUU is coming off of a big win and it's expected that their guys will be tired from last weeks efforts.

Finally we get to teams like NC state who are relying on so much unknown young blood and New Mexico who is relying on a huge base of 1500m guys. You can't rely on those guys to come through in just the first race of the season and their first race over a mile since more than likely last November. Still fitness is fitness and I imagine that the princeton tigers will not come through as most might expect. They are in a seemingly down year and the reload doesn't look as strong as most years. Who knows what to expect but on paper I place them towards the bottom of the heap.

If you were to ask me to rank them:

1. BYU

2. Michigan

3. SUU

4. NC state

5. New Mexico

6. Princeton ( i could see a team like Colorado State coming up and beating them)

An additional and perhaps obvious observation that I made while compiling these top returners was the difference between a truly competitive team ranked within the top 10 or so and a team falling in the teens range is both the necessity of a very low stick - a guy who can finish in the top 15 or maybe two guys that fit such a description and depth that those top programs have. take, for example, a team like even, Villanova that returns (SBs from 2014 track) :

13:31

3:39

3:40

3:41

14:08

Truly a far more impressive team and a potential for 1-4 very low sticks. I do not mean to say that villanova is far better than their ranking but merely demonstrate the difference in the composition of such a team that dreams of contending on a national scale and team that does contend on such a scale.

Gonzaga may surprise a few teams out there tomorrow. Several mid to low 14 minute 5k guys from the track last year. They are hungry.

There are some bad teams in those fields. Why would you travel to a meet if you were out of state and fighting for one of the bottom 5 spots. I guess some teams have $ to burn.

It's about time people start giving non-CU, BYU, NAU Mountain teams some credit. SUU and especially Colorado State are legit.... You heard it here first.... Even though you should've been hearing it all along...

Mascari for the win.

And Air Force

Fan80521 wrote:

It's about time people start giving non-CU, BYU, NAU Mountain teams some credit. SUU and especially Colorado State are legit.... You heard it here first.... Even though you should've been hearing it all along...

marathnr wrote:

times will be slow, heavy rain predicted, 1-2" rain, wet course, should be interesting.

It has been pouring all night long with 100% chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms, all day long. It will be a quagmire out there, IF they run.

will there be a live stream on any websites?