2003 Berlin: 2:04:55
2014 Berlin: 2:02:57
Simple arithmetic could let you to believe 1:59:59 will happen in 15 years or so.
But then, the last decade has seen a sea change in the marathon talent pool, with runners "moving to" the distance from an early age, even their teen years. (Causing the inverse sea change in the now-stagnant 10,000.) We probably won't see a minute coming off the WR every five years once we settle into this "new normal."
But we WILL see sub-2. Before 2040.
NOW do you not think a sub-2:00:00 marathon will happen?
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As soon as they give the Kenyans the same stuff they gave me then yes it would be possible
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If it happens, it happens. Why bother trying to predict it?
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It won't be a linear progression. Unless a total freak of nature is currently on his way, sub-2 is still a ways off.
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fdfasdfasdf wrote:
It won't be a linear progression. Unless a total freak of nature is currently on his way, sub-2 is still a ways off.
Freaks of nature are always in the pipeline. When Bekele was at his peak he could have gone sub 2:00:00. -
High Bred Artist wrote:
fdfasdfasdf wrote:
It won't be a linear progression. Unless a total freak of nature is currently on his way, sub-2 is still a ways off.
Freaks of nature are always in the pipeline. When Bekele was at his peak he could have gone sub 2:00:00.
No, I don’t think so. But it should be noticed that Kipsang would be probably able to run at least 20-30” less than Kimetto if in the race today. I remind you that Kimetto was 49” sub WR at a certain point and he ended up only 26” sub WR. If Kipsang was in the race, he could have probably outpaced Kimetto in the last 5km -
What I want to say is that Renato Canova’s claim that Mutai was a 2:02:30 athlete in 2011 and the current best marathoners could run 2:02:30 looks very plausible
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If someone put up, say, $5-10 million, the 2hr barrier would go down within 5 years. As it is now, these guys have an incentive to break the WR by as little as possible. Also, the pacers always go out right around the record pace, making a great leap in the record all but impossible. With enough incentive, you could get all the best guys in the same races, all gunning for it, and all you would need is one guy to have a really great day.
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It actually would take more than one freak of nature. In fact it probably would take a whole team of freaks, working together as a team, allowing one another to draft off of each other to conserve energy. Put all the Mutai´s, Kimetto´s Kipsang´s and Bekele´s together on one team. Pay them all a lot of money for each successive mile that is run at sub 2 hour marathon pace, and see what happens. They need to work together like a peloton (to use a cycling analogy) so that they can achieve an average pace faster than any one person can hold on his own. Kimetto needed Mutai to achieve what he achieved today. Without him he probably would have been at least a minute slower. I no longer consider this to be an individual accomplishment. Try sending off the runners one at a time every two minutes (like the time trials in cycling events) and see what the winning times will be. I doubt anyone would go under 2:05. You need pacing....the more the better. Still waiting for a race director to orchestrate a team time trial approach to breaking the world record. Probably will never happen in my lifetime.
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" I no longer consider this to be an individual accomplishment. "
You talk like drafting and team tactics were just invented...
Even Bannister had pacers to draft off of for his sub-4 mile, right? His achievement was still considered individual.
I see sub-2:00 marathon eventually. The bonus for a WR means it will go down a few seconds at a time. There's still over 120 seconds left so it could be over 60 years (assuming 1-3 seconds improvement a year) to get under 2 hours..
"Probably will never happen in my lifetime."
Agree with that. -
High Bred Artist wrote:
fdfasdfasdf wrote:
It won't be a linear progression. Unless a total freak of nature is currently on his way, sub-2 is still a ways off.
Freaks of nature are always in the pipeline. When Bekele was at his peak he could have gone sub 2:00:00.
Nonsense. Sub-2,00 is equivalent to about 25,35 10k according to McMillan. -
OP,
Good post. I was talking to a guy at brunch today and told him about the WR. Sub-2 came up and I said, "I sure hope it doesn't happen as I'm on record saying it's not happening in my lifetime."
He quipped, "Well you can always make that tradition hold up if someone is about to do it."
Anyway, we are still a LONG way from a sub-2 on a legitimate course.
We are 6.75 seconds per mile away from it. That's a lot. That's 1.5 seconds per lap on track and repeat that for 26.2 miles.
I should get JK to convert it to 5000 and 10,000 exactly but please understand if you are arguing for a sub2:00 then you believe something that humans are going to run a sub 2545 10,000 and sub 1220 5000 as it's got to be equivalent to something like that.
The thing that made me feel better about it was when Kimetto cross the line he was so spent he couldn't even celebrate. -
"NOW do you not think a sub-2:00:00 marathon will happen?"
If they keep tweaking that bouncy BOOST, it might happen sooner than you think!
(Bummer the Boost shoes were running to narrow for my wide fore-foot.) -
Men's marathon performances are in a decade of rapid acceleration just like track times were in the 90's to early 2000's. You cannot expect it to continue long term.
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gdm wrote:
If someone put up, say, $5-10 million, the 2hr barrier would go down within 5 years. As it is now, these guys have an incentive to break the WR by as little as possible. Also, the pacers always go out right around the record pace, making a great leap in the record all but impossible. With enough incentive, you could get all the best guys in the same races, all gunning for it, and all you would need is one guy to have a really great day.
Great leaps don't happen because that's now how running works moron. They go out at record pace because nobody is fit to go out at like 2:01 pace -
HardLoper wrote:
Men's marathon performances are in a decade of rapid acceleration just like track times were in the 90's to early 2000's. You cannot expect it to continue long term.
Nope. Over the last decade or so new marathon records have been set more often than in past periods but the incremental improvements have been smaller. -
rojo wrote:
OP,
Good post. I was talking to a guy at brunch today and told him about the WR. Sub-2 came up and I said, "I sure hope it doesn't happen as I'm on record saying it's not happening in my lifetime."
He quipped, "Well you can always make that tradition hold up if someone is about to do it."
Anyway, we are still a LONG way from a sub-2 on a legitimate course.
We are 6.75 seconds per mile away from it. That's a lot. That's 1.5 seconds per lap on track and repeat that for 26.2 miles.
I should get JK to convert it to 5000 and 10,000 exactly but please understand if you are arguing for a sub2:00 then you believe something that humans are going to run a sub 2545 10,000 and sub 1220 5000 as it's got to be equivalent to something like that.
The thing that made me feel better about it was when Kimetto cross the line he was so spent he couldn't even celebrate.
According to mcmillan.com, a 2:02:57 is comparable to
5Km 12:37
10Km 26:12
1/2 Mar 58:25
Equivalent times for a 2:00:00:
5Km 12:19
10Km 25:35
1/2 Mar 57:01
Current men's WR:
5Km 12:37
10Km 26:17
1/2 Mar 58:23 -
How close to optimal is the Berlin course? I know it is considered extremely fast, but how about a dead flat circular course of circumference 42,195 meters?
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rojo wrote:
We are 6.75 seconds per mile away from it. That's a lot. That's 1.5 seconds per lap on track and repeat that for 26.2 miles.
Keep in mind we came about 4.5 second per mile in the last 10 years, though! -
Piano_Man87 wrote:
If it happens, it happens. Why bother trying to predict it?
Why bother with a post like this would be another question.
