Will Shalane Get the Marathon AR?

My gut says no; 2:22-flat was a huge breakthrough for her given that her previous PR was 2:25:40. To think that she can make another 150 second jump just six months seems a bit wishful.

The fact that she is talking about the record likely means she is in phenomenal shape, so if anything her race should be exciting.

I think she has a shot.

If the rabbits get Feyse Tadese, Tirfi Tsegaye and Flanagan to 35km at 1:55: high without any drama we might see at least one go sub 2:20.

But I doubt we'll see a bunny around after 25km. New PR for all three 40%, for two, 50% for one 67%.

might be wejo wrote:

My gut says no; 2:22-flat was a huge breakthrough for her given that her previous PR was 2:25:40. To think that she can make another 150 second jump just six months seems a bit wishful.

The fact that she is talking about the record likely means she is in phenomenal shape, so if anything her race should be exciting.

Originally my thinking was Shalane isn't a 2:20 marathoner. Nothing she's done in the marathon would indicate she could run that fast. But that is faulty logic, she's never run on a flat fast course.

Her 10k credentials are amazing. She says she's going for the record. Those things alone make it a real possibility.

She ran a 1:09:44 half in Chicago in July this year and a 31:27 10k where she got beat by Gemma Steele. People who get beat by Gemma Steele I don't think of as 2:19 marathoners but Geema just ran a 1:08 half marathon and is running well.

I've just got to assume from all of Shalane's talk and focusing on Berlin that they from her training believe 2:19 is a real possibility.

I'm holding off on giving my prediction.

American record, definitely!

I don't think the fact that she didn't have a really good marathon time before Boston means anything at all. She was second in NYC in a slowish race, and she won the Trials pretty handily. Those were the priorities at those times.

Her Chicago Half Marathon time was what she was looking for at that stage of her build-up.

As Flanagan's indicated, Kastor's record is fast. Her record pursuit is going to be close. I certainly think she's capable of something under 2:21, but can't say by how much.

I don't understand the person who doesn't think the "bunnies" will be along much beyond 25K. Why would you think that?

This is why only us track geeks like to watch running. It has all come down to running fast times not winning races, which is why we can't get people interested in the sport. Can you imagine if Tom Brady said, I don't care if I win as long as I have good stats? Very disappointing.

info wrote:

This is why only us track geeks like to watch running. It has all come down to running fast times not winning races, which is why we can't get people interested in the sport. Can you imagine if Tom Brady said, I don't care if I win as long as I have good stats? Very disappointing.

This is flawed. Brady is playing for a team, Shalane is running for Shalane. And I'm fairly certain that Brady has contract clauses that pay him a boatload extra for good stats, win or lose.

Fast times win races. 2:19 will almost certainly get a top 3 finish, and likely win it outright. I'm not sure if you're stating that you'd rather see a tactical, yet pedestrian 2:27 pace until the last mile or so. The marathon is a much different beast than a 5k.

As for the question the OP posed, the conditions will be near ideal with temps in the upper 40s/low 50s and slightly overcast. This is a much faster course than Boston and she'll have more folks doing the work, including men. Lots can happen during the race, but I think this is her best opportunity to grab the record.

If someone is going to beat Deena's record, I'd like it to be Shalane. That being said, it'd be 2 big PR drops in a year...yes, I know it can be rationalized, but I'd bet against it. I hope I'm wrong.

The talk about breaking the AR drives a lot more interest to the race than otherwise would be.

I know I am interested in seeing if she can do it.

Shalane is gonna FVCK SH_T UP! She's gonna KICKASS right up until the race starts. Then, after the race, she's gonna FVCK SH_T UP! in the next race.

today's version of Weldon will pace them to the line.

expecting 2:21 low teens wrote:

If the rabbits get Feyse Tadese, Tirfi Tsegaye and Flanagan to 35km at 1:55: high without any drama we might see at least one go sub 2:20.

But I doubt we'll see a bunny around after 25km. New PR for all three 40%, for two 50%, for one 67%.

mere interest erect wrote:

The talk about breaking the AR drives a lot more interest to the race than otherwise would be.

I know I am interested in seeing if she can do it.

For sure. I wanna watch. This will be the first Berlin Marathon I've (hopefully) watched live.

Shes the Deena of this generation of female runners, shes got the talent, shes got the heart, hopefully just like Paula and Deena she has male rabbits to take her to the finish and she will do it.

2:20 or 2:21 a PR but no AR

Did she speak about her training specifics?

Her 10k PR could very well get her down to sub 2:19:36. But the real questions are:

- Is her best distance the marathon, so she can run a marathon at the same or even higher level than her 10k?

- Has she trained for a marathon (long, sustained efforts and tempo runs at goal pace)?

In the all time list I found Shalane on place 17 in the 10k - and Deena on place 10 with the 2:19:36. But place 17 isn't far back - 2:19:high. So it is possible - but everything will have to fall in perfect place...

All I can say: I am very excited to see an American 30:22 runner go for it. Props to her :-)

Pikachu

No

She will be the hottest elite female runner in the race

My prediction is Pain!