NCAA XC Dark Horse Pick?

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  • crazy XC pick
    5 years ago 09/24/2014 7:47am CDT
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    With points starting to count on 9/26, I was thinking, who would be my dark horse pick to make NCAAs?

    To me, a dark horse would NOT be in the top 30 now, so they wouldn't be on this list (http://www.ustfccca.org/2014/09/featured/division-i-cross-country-national-coaches-polls-remain-calm-but-not-for-much-longer).

    AND, they should NOT be a top 3 on the regional list (http://www.ustfccca.org/2014/09/featured/regional-rankings-in-division-i-xc-hold-steady-ahead-of-a-big-weekend-of-races?doing_wp_cron=1411405403.1416220664978027343750).

    Interestingly, the only schools that are top 3 in region but not top 30 national are: Auburn and Florida (from South region), Texas A&M (South Central), i think.

    My pick?

    The 'chalk' pick would probably be Columbia or G'town. But, I'm going to go very, very dark and pick...Notre Dame!
  • Jackson Browne
    5 years ago 09/24/2014 10:02am CDT
    re: crazy XC pick
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    I pick Yale. They look better this year than they have in the past, and gave Princeton a run a few weeks ago. Should contend in the Northeast, which sent six teams last year.
  • Positive Contribution
    5 years ago 09/24/2014 10:26am CDT
    re: Jackson Browne
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    G'Town might not even make nationals
  • crazy XC pick
    5 years ago 09/24/2014 2:06pm CDT
    re: Positive Contribution
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    Positive Contribution wrote:

    G'Town might not even make nationals

    The pick would be to make not win nats.
  • get rish
    5 years ago 09/24/2014 2:13pm CDT
    re: crazy XC pick
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    As an alum, I have to painfully disagree with the ND pick. They are going to have quite a down year - already lost National Catholic. Big Sparks fan though.
  • crazy XC pick
    5 years ago 09/24/2014 3:52pm CDT
    re: Jackson Browne
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    Jackson Browne wrote:

    I pick Yale. They look better this year than they have in the past, and gave Princeton a run a few weeks ago. Should contend in the Northeast, which sent six teams last year.

    I like this pick. They surprised Princeton and I don't think it was a fluke.
  • crazy XC pick
    5 years ago 09/24/2014 4:00pm CDT
    re: get rish
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    get rish wrote:

    As an alum, I have to painfully disagree with the ND pick. They are going to have quite a down year - already lost National Catholic. Big Sparks fan though.

    Yeah, it's definitely a reach, but I think it's possible.

    They didn't run their top guys at NCI. Ball and Clevenger are good. They also have a Princeton Xfer (Vitez?) that should be running by ACCs or Regionals, I hope.

    So, they'll have a legit scoring five (with Kildo and Marco) and could surprise with some at large points.

    Longshot, but possible...
  • messi
    5 years ago 09/25/2014 3:42pm CDT
    re: crazy XC pick
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    Pundits are picking MTSU at the true dark horse this year.
  • Hulk
    registered
    5 years ago 09/25/2014 6:48pm CDT
    re: messi
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    Ole Miss!
  • what will happennn
    5 years ago 09/25/2014 7:00pm CDT
    re: Hulk
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    Penn will get 2nd in the Mid-Atlantic region beating Princeton and Georgetown thus heading to NCAAs
  • xcnc
    5 years ago 09/25/2014 7:12pm CDT
    re: crazy XC pick
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    Michigan state university!
  • TommyAwad
    5 years ago 09/25/2014 7:21pm CDT
    re: what will happennn
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    what will happennn wrote:

    Penn will get 2nd in the Mid-Atlantic region beating Princeton and Georgetown thus heading to NCAAs


    Totally agree that Penn will have a good shot at natty's but I don't think they will beat Princeton. Penn comes in a tight spot for 3rd beating G'town. With Thomas Awad and a solid group of freshman/sophomores with good success on the track they are dangerous
  • they call me flopro
    5 years ago 09/26/2014 11:57am CDT
    re: crazy XC pick
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    Oregon Women lead by the individual champ Sarah Baxter. GO DUCKS
  • Iknoweverything
    5 years ago 09/26/2014 12:17pm CDT
    re: crazy XC pick
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    Air Force. Always ignored in national polls but a very solid program has been built up there over the last 4-5 years.
  • Blue shoes
    5 years ago 09/26/2014 12:24pm CDT
    re: Iknoweverything
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    Furman. Beat Iona today and were just behind Virginia. 4 freshman in the top 7. High ceiling crew.
  • rojo
    cofounder
    5 years ago 09/26/2014 12:56pm CDT
    re: Jackson Browne
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    Jackson Browne wrote:

    I pick Yale. They look better this year than they have in the past, and gave Princeton a run a few weeks ago. Should contend in the Northeast, which sent six teams last year.

    The Northast sending 6 teams was a fluke. Harvard was amazingly good early in the year with Leakos and korolev and very mediocre late in the year (30th). They probably didn't 'deserve' to go late in the year but they had so many points they poushed Dartmouth in (note, i know they clearly deserved to go as they had the points but they weren't a great team without leakos).

    Most years, you are looking at 3-4 teams from the region.

    When I was coaching in the Ivy League, I think the Ivy winner went to NCAAs less than half the time.

    I started in 2002. From 2002 to through 2009- a grand total of 1 Ivy teams made NCAAs (Dartmouth 05).

    Here are the all time NCAA team performances by Ivy schools

    Brown (1963-87-92-96)
    Columbia (2011-12-13).
    Cornell (1957-70-71-77-92)
    Dartmouth (1975-76-80-83-86-87-88-89-91-93-94-95-98-99-2000-01-05-13)
    Harvard (1964-68-69-70-76-78-79-13)
    Penn (1969-70-71-75)
    Princeton - Princeton (1969-71-72-75-76-80-81-97-98-99-2010-11-12-13)
    Yale - never

    Now the last few years, there have been more teams. Princeton figured things out and got on a roll. 2 in 1011, 2 in 2012, and 4 last year.

    With other schools getting more and more expensive and with the ivies financial aid getting more and more generous, are the ivies becoming even more attractive than they used to be?

    Perhaps.

    But this year is a regarded by most as a down year as compared to last year. The winner has a good shot of making but anything more than 2 teams is a total shocker.

    Next year, nearly everyone comes back. Next year will be maybe a multibid year.
  • crazy XC pick
    5 years ago 09/26/2014 1:18pm CDT
    re: Blue shoes
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    Blue shoes wrote:

    Furman. Beat Iona today and were just behind Virginia. 4 freshman in the top 7. High ceiling crew.

    I was surprised by this. UVA ran it's top guys. Visokay did so, so. The rest ran well. Did Iona run it's top guys (I don't know them well enough to tell)?

    If so, Furman is no joke.
  • Blue Shoes
    5 years ago 09/26/2014 2:26pm CDT
    re: crazy XC pick
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    Furman only has 1 senior in the top 7. The rest of the team is all freshman (4) and sophmores (2). Will they be a top 10 team in a couple years?
  • Blue shoes
    5 years ago 09/26/2014 2:46pm CDT
    re: Blue Shoes
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    They have had great recruiting classes the past 2 years. They will make some noise. Iona ran full strength as did Auburn.

    Very young team with a high ceiling .
  • messi
    5 years ago 09/26/2014 3:53pm CDT
    re: Blue Shoes
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    Blue Shoes wrote:

    Furman only has 1 senior in the top 7. The rest of the team is all freshman (4) and sophmores (2). Will they be a top 10 team in a couple years?

    Furman has only been funded two years Now going into 3rd year).