It would be hilarious If Deena finished Ahead of her. But its completely probable.
It would be hilarious If Deena finished Ahead of her. But its completely probable.
Probable? Certain.
My guess:
Deena. 2:24:55
Kara. 2:28:10
You think that Deena will run one minute faster than any American has ever run on the course?
I don't care if she runs 3:01 as long as Kara runs 3:02.
Deena is not going to run 2:24 anything. What a strange notion. But if she runs a 2:28, she'll beat Kara.
Based on her half she should be able to run 2:24.I'm not saying that she will run that fast but it would be nice to see.
Bleu wrote:
Based on her half she should be able to run 2:24.I'm not saying that she will run that fast but it would be nice to see.
It's NY, people. You think elite men win each year in 2:10 by chance?
Kastor's 69:39 Half pegs out to a 2:26:29 Full according to McMillain, on equivalent course/conditions, if the endurance training has extended one out to the Full. Judging NYCM to be 2-3 minutes more difficult (over the Full) than a flat Philly course, we peg Kastor at 2:29-2:30 for NYCM. Alhough Philly was likely warmer and more humid than expected at NYCM, any benefit there is negated by Kastor's likely optimizing her current condition for the Half distance (in order to break the WR). This might (significantly) factor into Kastor going 2:30+.A similar exercise pegs Goucher at ~2:33 for NYCM.
Bleu wrote:
Based on her half she should be able to run 2:24.I'm not saying that she will run that fast but it would be nice to see.
Wossamotta wrote:
But if she runs a 2:28, she'll beat Kara.
And lose to Desi.
What's people's opinions on Deena making the 2016 women's Olympic marathon team?
Shalane
Desi
????
Sciatica Road wrote:
Judging NYCM to be 2-3 minutes more difficult (over the Full) than a flat Philly course, we peg Kastor at 2:29-2:30 for NYCM.
The ARRS has NYCM at 51 to 55 sec. slow based on the total history of performances there. That puts Deena at under 2:27:30.
http://arrs.net/HP_NYCMa.htmKara's career was over when she got pregnant. She didn't want to believe it but it's true.
When you're a female athlete, you're best of maximizing your athletic performance until you're 33-34, then retire and try to have kids.
It doesn't work the other way around.
after nyc wrote:
What's people's opinions on Deena making the 2016 women's Olympic marathon team?
Shalane
Desi
????
Why is everyone so convinced Desi is going to make it? Don't get me wrong, I want her to. Her attitude and work ethic are admirable but she hasn't been consistent at all in years because of her injury (was it injuries?). Has she really done much more than Kara as of late?
Middle Mileage Marathoner wrote:
[quote]
Why is everyone so convinced Desi is going to make it? Don't get me wrong, I want her to. Her attitude and work ethic are admirable but she hasn't been consistent at all in years because of her injury (was it injuries?). Has she really done much more than Kara as of late?
Des ran 2:23 at Boston this year.
Denna is going there to run hard and test herself, Kara is just cashing in on a pay day "Integrity some people have it some don't"
Talk to the NYRR about that notion of "integrity." When they coaxed a recently injured Lauren Fleshman into a move from the 5000 to the marathon, what did they, what did they think was more likely, that he'd run a great marathon or that they'd wreck her career?
Farthur wrote:
Middle Mileage Marathoner wrote:[quote]
Why is everyone so convinced Desi is going to make it? Don't get me wrong, I want her to. Her attitude and work ethic are admirable but she hasn't been consistent at all in years because of her injury (was it injuries?). Has she really done much more than Kara as of late?
Des ran 2:23 at Boston this year.
And in 2011 went 2:22 at Boston and 2:25 at the 2012 O' Trials. That is pretty consistent. She came back from her injury just about where she left off.
"Coaxed"? LOL.Lauren is a grown woman, a professional runner. She made a decision to run the marathon. If it 'ruined her career', it is Lauren's fault and no one else's.
Wossamotta wrote:
Talk to the NYRR about that notion of "integrity." When they coaxed a recently injured Lauren Fleshman into a move from the 5000 to the marathon, what did they, what did they think was more likely, that he'd run a great marathon or that they'd wreck her career?
Obviously, Kastor is in better shape right now. But who knows whether she woodshedded like crazy to get the half record or whether she was able to keep up the full training. We see people blaze halfs and tank in the full all the time (Kim Smith is an example: 67 half, but can't beat 2:25 in the full). Deena's record in the full is certainly better than those who do better in the half, but it has been a while since she ran a solid full.
Kara's fitness is a bit of a mystery. For her, it is more of an issue of getting back on the horse. When she gets back in shape, she will be able to run 2:25. Kastor may not have that kind of speed left in the marathon.
It also depends on what the pace is like in NY and whether Deena and Kara try to go with the pace or just time trial it. I suspect Kara will just try for @2:27-28. Deena may try to stay with the pack unless the pace is below 2:25 from the get go.
It's so unfortunate that marathon times get treated equally. Runners in Berlin, Rotterdam, Dubai, London, and Chicago have an easier road than those in a place like New York. I maintain that Geoffrey Mutai's win in New York 2011 in 2:05:06 was arguably the most dominant marathon ever run, but the difficulty of the course gave him a time that gets overlooked.
Similarly, Shalane's time in Boston under nominal conditions deserves more respect than it is being given.
There's no way Deena runs a 2:24 this year in New York; it's not realistic. A sub 2:30 showing would be impressive.