Half Marathon Prediction

1:16

5:42 pace. Whatever that works out too. Above average for a women.

1:14. Which race you doing?

I'd say sub 1:15 should be a decent target

Thanks guys. Was thinking of going out at 5:45 pace for first couple of miles and then trying to average under 5:40 for the whole thing. Think I'm in about 1:14 flat shape but would love to dip under. It's a smaller race in NJ

Sub 1:14 is a good goal. It looks like you are ready for it based on your mileage and tempos. Good luck. I'm shooting for a sub 1:18 in a couple of weeks and there is no way I could do a 26:54 for a 5 mile. Let us know how you do.

I would say that sounds like at least 1:14 shape. I ran 1:10 last fall, and while my mileage may have been a little higher and my tempos just slightly faster, they were not better by a whole lot.

So I would say go out at 1:14 pace (or possibly as fast as 1:13 pace if it means running with a group), don't get carried away if you feel good in mile 6-8, and push hard to stay consistent in the last 3 miles. Not sure what race you are in, but that time is often in no-man's land in a mid sized half marathon, so the second half will likely be run alone.

I would say you can run 1:11-13 depending on the conditions.

If you are able to do 6 mile tempos in 5:30s you should be able to double the distance in a race. I would even say that 5:20s are very much possible.Of course it depends how hard you run your tempos. In full training you should't be able to run them much faster than marathon pace.

Good luck

1:13:40 is my prediction.

Couple questions:

1. Is this the Jersey City race? That's not exactly small.

2. Do you run for GSTC and if you don't, you should. They'll get you where you need to be.

Good luck!

Tempos as predictors are tricky, I am sure you are aware of that. You can always 'cheat' at tempos and go way too hard. The best feedback would be from comparing this cycle tempos with previous cycle tempos vs a previous HM time.

Thanks for the responses. I'll let you know how it goes. It's the Jersey City one. Not small I guess, but it's not Philly.

Yeah, I know tempos are tricky and effort levels vary, but people who know what they're doing tend to not overdo these, so I try to follow suit. For me, a couple of years ago when I was just getting into running, on lesser mileage, doing longer tempos in 6:1x led to 6:05 for a race. More recently, 5:5x tempos led to a 5:47. So, I'm hoping I can knock off at least 5 seconds from that 7 mi tempo this weekend. It still amazes me how this works. Never feels even remotely possible I could double the distance during the workout. We'll see. Thanks again.

Always amazes when I'll tempo and finish think how I'll doube that distance close to the pace on race day.

Good, your previous numbers line up. You should be in the ballpark of your recent tempos. Good luck.

results?

Bad day. Not sure if it was the weather or one of a million other variables in my control but I was a couple minutes off target. Seemed like the whole field was though as my placing was decent. I competed well. Caught some people in the middle and towards the end but was hurting bad in no man's land for the last couple miles. Pissed off about the time as I know I had better in me, but what can you do.

ya ok, and what was the time...?

spaceman spiff wrote:

Bad day. Not sure if it was the weather or one of a million other variables in my control but I was a couple minutes off target. Seemed like the whole field was though as my placing was decent. I competed well. Caught some people in the middle and towards the end but was hurting bad in no man's land for the last couple miles. Pissed off about the time as I know I had better in me, but what can you do.