Sub 3 Marathon

Should be well within your reach with these workouts.

What pace did you go out at in those 2 marathons?

For the 3:18, I went through the first half in 1:34 and blew up badly. I am not sure my split for the 3:13. I do recall from my training cycles then and now that the quality of my workouts and long runs has been much better this time around. I wasn't able to do 16-18 at sub 3 MP without dying back then - but now I am well within myself when I do a 16-18 MP workout now.

seems reasonable

as you already know, the key is to pace properly. you'll be rested and ready so it will be very easy to start too fast...

if the first 10k (if not the first 10 miles) don't feel too easy, then you're probably running too fast.

Yes. You are ready. Definitely take a shot at it. Sub 3 is a mental barrier, not a physical one. Running a 3:00.00001 seems like the biggest waste of time, but 2:59.9999 is something you tell your grandchildren about (being a bit facetious here, but you get the idea). It may take you a few tries to get under 3 just because the pressure can get to you during a race and pacing/weather etc. are always an issue. It is really hard to hit mile 20 and start coming unglued and watching your sub 3 melt away with each 1/4 mi. But if you do not get it done this time, you will within the next few races. It should be inevitable for you and probably a temporary stop on your way to much faster times.

Much better shape than my first sub 3. I would pace for 2:55-6 if I were you.

Bob Nelson wrote:

I can do a sub 6:30 tempo run for 10 miles no problem.

Assuming you can hold that pace for a 1/2 marathon, sub-3 at Twin Cities is definitely doable, providing you get favorable race day weather. Good luck.

Excellent and encouraging training, Bob. I would be happy just having done such good, solid training, even if I did not end up going sub-3. That said, I think the upper 2s are within your reach. If you avoid going out too fast, you will have things in your favor. The weather will be a key factor, too. I have never run a full marathon (perhaps someday?), and I am always happy to see anyone put in a solid performance. I wish you all the best. Keep us posted.

Thanks for the input, I appreciate it. I'm hopeful it's feasible as well. I ran a 10 miles tempo run in 63:40 tonight, so I am excited.

Whats your recent half marathon time?

Yes. You can run sub 3. Most people who post aren't ready but you are. Just be conservative on race day. Don't run the first half any faster than 1:28 or 1:27.

It is funny how arbitrary it can be. I have run under 3 by less 30 seconds and over 3 by less than 30 seconds. One I deemed a huge success and the other an epic failure. Yet my finish times were less than 60 seconds apart. Doesn't really make any sense.

If these recent runs are accurate, you are much closer to 2:55 shape than 3 hour. Like others have said, don't go out too fast and you should be fine. If I were you, I'd aim for 1:28 through the half. Best of luck!

echoing what others said, yes you're definitely in sub-3:00 shape. from here it all comes down to the day of. i was running very similar workouts to you when i ran 2:58 in my first marathon. actually my long runs weren't as good as yours. I had solid 8-12 mile tempos though at around 6:15 pace. I hit the half in 1:27:30 and held pace until around 25 miles when i hit the wall, but i had enough margin to still break 3:00 easily.

like others have said, i'd target 2:55 because you're obviously capable of handling 6:40 pace for a long time.

You're more than ready! See you at the line. I've still got some work to do but hoping for sub 3 as well.