Renato Canova: Can you explain why Galen Rupp can run 26:44 for 10,000 but only 13 flat for 5k?

Interestingly, Bekele has said the same thing (about his WRs, not Rupp)

J.R. wrote:

My 10k time compared to my 5k is better than Rupp's, even though I had less opportunity to run one on a track.

Personally I think Bekele's 10k WR is soft compared to his 5k WR, and that Rupp's 12:58 5k is a better mark than his 10k.

If you think Rupp's 5k is better than his 10k, you're missing something....

For Bekele's 10k to measure up to his 5k, by your standards, he would need to run faster than 26:02 by some percentage according to how much faster you think Rupp would need to run in his 10k to match his 5k. (12:58-12:37)x2=42 seconds, 26:44-42=26:02

Bekele (12:37) is to Rupp (12:58) as Rupp is to Brent Vaughn (13:19). Boom!

Transitive property wrote:

Bekele (12:37) is to Rupp (12:58) as Rupp is to Brent Vaughn (13:19). Boom!

No, it's worse than that. The faster you get, the more each second is worth. We need to use %s. I might figure it out later, but eh probably won't. I'm sure it's just another couple seconds anyway.

morris wrote:

Transitive property wrote:

Bekele (12:37) is to Rupp (12:58) as Rupp is to Brent Vaughn (13:19). Boom!

No, it's worse than that. The faster you get, the more each second is worth. We need to use %s. I might figure it out later, but eh probably won't. I'm sure it's just another couple seconds anyway.

No, it's way, WAY worse than that. Using percentages does not even begin to capture it. For example, the drop from 3:48 to 3:43 is astronomically greater than the drop from 3:58 to 3:53 though it would only be a small fraction of 1% more significant using percentage drop (97.807% v 97.899%).

J.R. wrote:

Personally I think Bekele's 10k WR is soft compared to his 5k WR, and that Rupp's 12:58 5k is a better mark than his 10k.

Well, if Rupp's 12:58 is better than his 26:44, then the U.S. has been horrible at 10,000m.

Ventolin^3 should answer the question given that, in another thread, was suggesting Mutai was able to run 26’10 for a 10k and Abshero, having a 13’11, could run 26’40 for a 10k

I don’t understand the title of the post : “Why Rupp can do 26’44” but ONLY 13’ flat”.

It seems like everybody thinks the two performances are very different as value.

The first answer to this question, without analyzing anything else, is : “Because these two performances are equivalent”, and there is no reason he MUST run faster in 5000m.

The difference between the double of his PB in 5000m, and his PB in 10000m, is absolutely normal at top level.

You can see the list of top 15 specialists all time in 10000m, with their PB in 5000, 10000m and the difference between the double of their 5000m PB, and their 10000m PB.

Kenenisa Bekele----12:37.35--26:17.53----------(1:02.83)

Haile Gebrselassie-12:39.36--26:22.75----------(1:04.03)

Paul Tergat--------12:49.87--26:27.85----------(48.11)

Nicholas Kemboi----13:01.14--26:30.03----------(27.75)

Abebe Dinkesa------12:55.52--26:30.74----------(49.70)

Micah Kogo---------13:00.77--26:35.63----------(34.09)

Paul Koech------- 12:56.29--26:36.26----------(43.68)

Zersenay Tadese----12:59.27--26:37.25----------(38.71)

Salah Hissou-------12:50.80--26:38.08----------(56.58)

Ahmed Hassan--------12:56.27--26:38.76----------(46.22)

Sileshi Sihine-----12:47.04--26:39.69----------(1:05.61)

Boniface Kiprop----12:57.11--26:39.77----------(45.55)

Samuel Wanjiru-----13:12.40--26:41.75----------(12.95)

Lucas Rotich-------12:55.06--26:43.98----------(53.86)

Galen Rupp---------12:58.90--26:44.36----------(46.56)

How you can see, the only athletes having a difference superior than 1 minute are Kenenisa, Haile and Sihine.

This for a simple reason: ALL THE OTHER ATHLETES HAD THEM AS PACERS IN THEIR RACE, WHILE FOR THE BEST THE MOST PART OF THE RACE WAS A “SOLO”.

Haile, when ran 26’22”75 (WR) was alone after 3600m. Kenenisa was in front, in Bruxelles, before 5000m. And, about Sihine, he never ran really some competition for time, but only for position (a little bit as Mo Farah, till now).

If we want to have a statistical picture, we can calculate the average of the “index of specific resistance”, and we find a value of 45.07.

If we want to have a more logic average, cancelling the 3 lowest “index of resistance” (Haile, Kenenisa and Sileshi) and the 3 highest (Wanjiru, Nicholas Kemboi and Micah Kogo), we have an average of 47.6, perfectly similar the index of Galen Rupp.

So, nothing strange in his two personal bests.

But if we want to investigate in more deep way the career of Galen, we can see that he always preferred running 10000m, so we can look at him like a “true” specialist of the longer distance.

In his career, he had a lot of opportunity to run fast in 5000m.

Till now, he ran 66 competitions of 5000m, 1 time under 13’, 11 times under 13’10”, 19 times under 13’20” and 25 times under 13’30”.

He ran also 30 competitions of 10000m, 2 times under 27’, 6 times under 27’30”, 12 times under 28’ and 19 times under 28’30”.

During all his career, always he was better in 10000m, and preferred to run that distance in the most important Championships.

2005----------13:44.72-------28:15.52---(46.08)

2006----------13:47.04-------28:28.18---(44.10)

2007----------13:30.49-------27:33.48---(32.50)

2008----------13:59.14-------27:36.99---(-21.29) +

2009----------13:46.41----- 27:37.99---(5.17) +

2010----------13:07.35-------27:10.74---(56.04)

2011----------13:06.86-------26:48.00---(34.28)

2012----------12:58.90-------27:25.33---(1:27.53)+

2013----------13:01.37-------27:24.39---(1:21.65)+

2014----------13:00.99-------26:44.36---(42.38)

We can see that, if we don’t consider 2008 – 2009 (no good competitions of 5000m), and 2012 – 2013 (when his preparation for 10000m was finalized to the big Championships, and there were no occasions for a fast race of 10000m), during all his athletics life his index was between 35.0 and 45.0.

One interesting point is the big number of his competitions in 10000m.

Normally, top champions chose to run 10000m only in the most important occasions.

Kenenisa Bekele ran in all his life 18 competitions of 10000m (4 times under 26’30”, 9 times under 27’ and 25 times under 27’15”), Haile Gebrselassie 25 competitions (2 times under 26’30”, 9 times under 27’ and 17 times under 27’30”).

But also in 5000m Galen Rupp has more competitions than the two GOATS :

Kenenisa ran in 55 competitions (6 times under 12’50”, 21 times under 13’, 29 times under 13’10” and 44 times under 13’30”), Haile ran 37 competitions (4 times under 12’50”, 18 times under 13’, 28 times under 13’10” and 35 times under 13’30”).

What is a bit strange, under technical point of view, is that the big improvemet Galen showed in short distances during the last two years (1500m in 3’34”75 in 2012, Mile indoor in 3’50”92 in 2013, and 3000m indoor this year) didn’t pay for 5000m, but paid for the longer distance.

This means that the increase in speed for shorter distances doesn’t have big connection with the “specific speed endurance” fo a longer race, and, looking at the last laps of Galen, it seems not to have also big influence in his kicking ability.

A part these technical analyzis, in my opinion Galen feels a little bit the pressure of public opinion and fans, and many times seems conditioned during his races.

Personally, I think that the expectations American fans had with the best young runners were one of the reason because Alan Webb and Dathan Ritzenhain didn’t have a career at the level of their talent.

In US, when some athlete is good in HS, a lot of people start to speak about Gold medal in Olympics or in WCh, because don’t know the global reality.

This fact, many times, pushes athletes and coaches to rush in their preparation, provoking injuries, or burning athletes, because immediately the best American need to challenge top Africans in every event.

African runners are not unbeatable, but American (and European) runners need to use patience for building the base, natural for Kenyan and Ethiopians, not natural for our young people. And too much pressure from fans without real global knowledge doesn’t teach anybody to have patience in his career.

Renato Canova wrote:

What is a bit strange, under technical point of view, is that the big improvemet Galen showed in short distances during the last two years (1500m in 3’34”75 in 2012, Mile indoor in 3’50”92 in 2013, and 3000m indoor this year) didn’t pay for 5000m, but paid for the longer distance.

But that's why + 46 should be too small a differential for him. It should be closer to 1 minute like Geb and KB who also were quick milers. The 7:30 was last year too BTW.

If there's a reason Rupp can't beat 12:58 it's either because 5000 is more hotly contested and tactically complex than 10,000, and Rupp has no head for it, or because his middle distance speed is heavily anaerobic and doesn't carry over to 5000. Judging by the 7:30, there's a drop in his performance somewhere between 3000 and 5000. Every faster 3000i performer is faster by a much bigger margin over 5000 than 3000. Approximately

Komen: 5s, 19s

HG: 4s, 19s

Alamirew: 2s, 11s

Soi: 0.2s, 8s

Choge: 2s, 5s

Kipchoge: 1s, 12s

Great post! And, what an astute observation of American interest in distance running (and, perhaps, a condemnation on American coaching too). Thank, Renato!

Great stuff. Thank you, coach.

Kenenisa and Geb, also if are in the first two position all time, are the runners more far from their real value, and I already explained why.

They opened a new era for 10000m, but were too much ahead of other runners for finding right support in their WR attempts.

How many pacers can you find, able to run 5000m at even pace in 13' / 13'05", for a record near 26' ?

But if you look at the second 5 km in WCh 2003 (12'57" per Kenenisa, 12'58" per Haile, Always in front), you understand their potentiality was by far very better than their WR.

Using an idex of 45" (which is not ecceptional), based on their PB in 5000m, we can suppose Kenenisa able running 26', and Haile 26'05", and this was absolutely possible with a full competition between them, with the final goal on the best performance only.

About the PB of Galen in shorter distances, I'm a little bit doubtful about their real value, because all those competitions were on indoor track.

On the contrary of the most part of people suppose, on indoor tracks is possible running faster than on outdoor tracks, of course if we speak of indoor tracks of last generation.

The biggest problem, running indoor, is the difficulty in breathing, when there is some Heather chenaging the quality of the air in the building. But, about the biomechanical situation, there are two types of advantages :

1- The absence of wind

2- The better elastic reactivity of the surface. The most part of indoor track are not fixed in one building all the season, but are assembled for the indoor season only, and after are unassembled again. For this reason, the track is not at direct contact with the pavement of the building, but is assembled on supports which allow the track to give back some elastic energy at every step of the athletes.

Supposing to use the same frequency in the technical action both in outdoor and indoor competitions, an athlete having a stride of 1.5 meters need to use 2000 steps.

The best elastic reaction of the track can give an advantage of about 2cm each step, and this 4000cm alias 40m. The calculation of the difference, about time of performance, is easy : for a pace of 2'30" per km (15" every 100m), 40m means 6".

The level of indoor performances depends in high percentage on the type of track.

We need to think that NEVER the best athletes were (and are) in their best shape during the indoor season. The indoor season is very short, there is not real good money, and nobody of the tops wants to waste part of his tough training for a season with little signification.

With all these premises, how can we justify performances of absolutely high technical level (such as during the outdoor season), if not with advantages given by the track itself ?

Some data :

HAILE GEBRSELASSIE :

1997 : 1500m : 3'32"39 indoor - 3'35"92 outdoor

1998 : 1500m : 3'31"76 indoor (WR) - 3'57"1 Mile out.

2000m : 4'52"86 indoor (WR) - 4'56"5 outdoor

3000m : 7'26"15 indoor - 7'25"09 outdoor

1999 : 1500m : 3'33"77 indoor (winning WCh Always in front without rabbits) - 3'33"73 outdoor

3000m : 7'26"80 indoor - 7'26"03 outdoor

5000m : 12'50"38 ind - 12'49"64 out

KENENISA BEKELE :

2004 : 5000m : 12'49"60 indoor (WR) one month before winning two titles in WCCch

2007 : 2000m : 4'49"99 indoor (WR) on 20.02 in medium shape

2008 : 2 Miles : 8'04"35 indoor (WR) 40 days before winning WCh in Long Cross (which was his main goal of winter, after his DNF the previous year)

For not speaking only of the two best athletes all-time, I give you also some data about my athletes (and I very well know their shape was not the same of Summer, not more than 90%) :

CALEB NDIKU :

2013 : 3000m : 7'31"66 ind - 7'33"92 out

Also this year, when we prepared indoor in better way for winning WCh, his shape was not like when he won 5000m in Eugene.

THOMAS LONGOSIWA :

He went for some indoor in 2012 only, after preparing the outdoor season with high volume, without speed.

On 10 Feb, he ran 12'58"67 in Düsseldorf, at 80% of the shape he had in Olympics.

EDWIN SOI :

In 2012 we prepared a little bit the indoor season, with no more than some track session (not intense speed) in January. In Karlsruhe (12 Feb) he ran 7'29"94 in 3000m, when in the outdoor season never was faster than 7'34"75.

Great thread!! Thanks Renato

Renato Canova wrote:

Kenenisa Bekele----12:37.35--26:17.53----------(1:02.83)

Haile Gebrselassie-12:39.36--26:22.75----------(1:04.03)

Paul Tergat--------12:49.87--26:27.85----------(48.11)

Nicholas Kemboi----13:01.14--26:30.03----------(27.75)

Abebe Dinkesa------12:55.52--26:30.74----------(49.70)

Micah Kogo---------13:00.77--26:35.63----------(34.09)

Paul Koech------- 12:56.29--26:36.26----------(43.68)

Zersenay Tadese----12:59.27--26:37.25----------(38.71)

Salah Hissou-------12:50.80--26:38.08----------(56.58)

Ahmed Hassan--------12:56.27--26:38.76----------(46.22)

Sileshi Sihine-----12:47.04--26:39.69----------(1:05.61)

Boniface Kiprop----12:57.11--26:39.77----------(45.55)

Samuel Wanjiru-----13:12.40--26:41.75----------(12.95)

Lucas Rotich-------12:55.06--26:43.98----------(53.86)

Galen Rupp---------12:58.90--26:44.36----------(46.56)

Thanks for this statistics. Small mistake for Dinkesa: 39.70, not 49.70)

The point is clear: the differential could be well below the usual thought 1 minute (which I thought should be more like 55s or even under, as this statistics also shows). But I don't think the statistics gives a fair picture.

You choose the 15 best 10000m specialists!

For the 15 best 5000m specialists you will get a little bit different picture (even if you ignore the ones who don't have a 10000m PB at all).

Look at the difference for:

Eliud Kipchoge, Dejene Gebremeskel, Thomas Longosiwa, Brahim Lahlafi, Mohammed Mourhit (all in the top-15 all-time over 5000m).

I don't want to do the math at the moment, but it's WELL over 1 minute for most of them. Because they are more like 5000m specialists (or havn't come close to there 10k potential).

Renato Canova's statistics showes the best over 10000m (who are obviously better (most of them) over 10k than over 5k or havn't come close to there 5k potential (like Wanjiru)).

I believe this it's actually fairly reasonable for him to choose the "15 best 10000m specialists" for this analysis so to speak. What the OP asked him is why Galen Rupp's 5000m time seems misaligned with his 10000m time. Rupp, like these other "10000m specialists", is just that, a 10000m specialist.

Consequently, it makes perfect sense that his relative PR-patterns should align with theirs much more than they should with any 5000m specialists.

Renato, thanks for the post!

Can you speak more on whether it is strange to see improvements in the 1500 or 3k and in the 10k, but still not improve much in the 5k? Does this mean something about the training or about the abilities of the runner?

d1 exp wrote:

Renato, thanks for the post!

Can you speak more on whether it is strange to see improvements in the 1500 or 3k and in the 10k, but still not improve much in the 5k? Does this mean something about the training or about the abilities of the runner?

Renato, I'm in agreement with the others here. Staggeringly great posts! So informative!

Seyta wrote:

I believe this it's actually fairly reasonable for him to choose the "15 best 10000m specialists" for this analysis so to speak. What the OP asked him is why Galen Rupp's 5000m time seems misaligned with his 10000m time. Rupp, like these other "10000m specialists", is just that, a 10000m specialist.

Consequently, it makes perfect sense that his relative PR-patterns should align with theirs much more than they should with any 5000m specialists.

That's correct.

But I thought Renato Canova wanted to show that the equivalent over 10000m for a specific (world class) 5000m performance is something like two times the 5000m time plus around 45s (or less). And to "prove" this his statistics is not very helpful.

But, as said, it's also correct what you have said.