Mary Cain will have to defy the odds. Some good stats by Jesse Squire.
Stats Anyone? wrote:
Dumb article. What he should have said was that WJC gold medalists are more likely than any other WJC contestant, or those who didn't make it to the WJC, to get on the podium as a senior athlete as well.
Re: Cain, the rest of the world should be thinking, "Uh oh, she's more likely to capture gold in Rio and/or Tokyo than anyone else."
If she ran 1:57 flat in the 800, she would get gold right now in that event. Why would she try to medal in the 1500 with that time in the 800 when she could win gold in the 800?
Brent Pismo wrote:
In the 1500 she will need to get her 800 time to 1:57.0 to medal in a major championship in the 1500.
Not quite, this is the number of world junior GOLD medalists vs. senior medals of ANY type.
Davey Gravy wrote:
Of course the odds aren't great; how could they be?
At a senior level you compete with everyone from around age 18 - 35. At a junior championship, you only have a 2-3 year age range where one could possibly be competitive. It's a matter of the number of your competitors as much as anything else. 28% seems great to me.
Try MUCH less. The amount of first rounders in the NBA and NFL Draft that become even an all star once (let alone perennial) is not close to 28%. Probably closer to 1 in every 10. So three every first round usually becomes an all star once.
Brent Pismo wrote:
What percentage of NFL or NBA first round draft picks become perennial all-star pro players? I would guess maybe more than 28%. Certainly not 50%
We get it, this has been repeated 10 times already.
Larry Dickman wrote:
Why is that defying the odds? What other race at the junior level gives you a 28% chance of certainty in winning a medal as a senior? Winners of the North Dakota southern regional district meet have a 0% chance based on history.
World juniors are obviously the best predictor.
Me too. Is this anything new? Look at the stats for the other medalists and for the men. Much closer to the outcomes that I would expect.
28 percent is higher than I would have anticipated.