Mary Cain will have to defy the odds. Some good stats by Jesse Squire.
http://dailyrelay.com/future-tripping-how-might-world-junior-champions-fare/
Mary Cain will have to defy the odds. Some good stats by Jesse Squire.
http://dailyrelay.com/future-tripping-how-might-world-junior-champions-fare/
Dumb article. What he should have said was that WJC gold medalists are more likely than any other WJC contestant, or those who didn't make it to the WJC, to get on the podium as a senior athlete as well.
Re: Cain, the rest of the world should be thinking, "Uh oh, she's more likely to capture gold in Rio and/or Tokyo than anyone else."
Probably because many of them are not juniors?
What I take from the article is that talent/early maturity only takes you so far. Years of training and all the other things that go into making a medalist are just as important or more so.
Stats Anyone? wrote:
Dumb article. What he should have said was that WJC gold medalists are more likely than any other WJC contestant, or those who didn't make it to the WJC, to get on the podium as a senior athlete as well.
Re: Cain, the rest of the world should be thinking, "Uh oh, she's more likely to capture gold in Rio and/or Tokyo than anyone else."
+1 exactly
People misunderstand how this works all the time on here, thinking it's bad to be fast in high school because you'll surely "burn out" in the long run
Of course the odds aren't great; how could they be?
At a senior level you compete with everyone from around age 18 - 35. At a junior championship, you only have a 2-3 year age range where one could possibly be competitive. It's a matter of the number of your competitors as much as anything else. 28% seems great to me.
The stats are flawed.
What percent of senior women get a second senior gold medal?
What percentage of men do?
Now compare these, and 28% turns out to be excellent.
no doubt. I don't know who should be more embarrassed, the author of the article or the "experts" at LetsRun who posted it here without realizing the inherent flaws.
Defy the odds?
You make it sound like winning a WJR Gold decreased her chances of winning a medal at the senior level.
28 percent is higher than I would have anticipated.
Good thing she didn't win Footlocker - they can barely win NCAA titles!
What percentage of NFL or NBA first round draft picks become perennial all-star pro players? I would guess maybe more than 28%. Certainly not 50%.
An Olympic or World Championships medalist in track equates to being the top three player at the highest level at your event or position at the highest level of any sport.
28% for Women's distance running is surprisingly high.
Watching Mary Cain dominate the African Juniors with a healthy looking normal body-type and a dominating last 200 is the most promising potential I've seen at the world level for a young American distance runner since Mary Decker.
The question is what will ultimately be her event focus? The 3000 might be her best distance but its no longer an Olympic event.
If she can eventually progress to a 14:25 5000 meter runner she would have a shot of a major medal. And that is 20 seconds faster than the current AR.
In the 1500 she will need to get her 800 time to 1:57.0 to medal in a major championship in the 1500.
Brent Pismo wrote:
In the 1500 she will need to get her 800 time to 1:57.0 to medal in a major championship in the 1500.
If she ran 1:57 flat in the 800, she would get gold right now in that event. Why would she try to medal in the 1500 with that time in the 800 when she could win gold in the 800?
If she's under 2:00 (sub 1:59 would be more ideal) she will be fine in championship 1500s in the race for a medal as long as she continues to develop her strength and aerobic capacity in the upcoming years. She has the speed already obviously.
Davey Gravy wrote:
Of course the odds aren't great; how could they be?
At a senior level you compete with everyone from around age 18 - 35. At a junior championship, you only have a 2-3 year age range where one could possibly be competitive. It's a matter of the number of your competitors as much as anything else. 28% seems great to me.
Not quite, this is the number of world junior GOLD medalists vs. senior medals of ANY type.
Brent Pismo wrote:
What percentage of NFL or NBA first round draft picks become perennial all-star pro players? I would guess maybe more than 28%. Certainly not 50%
Try MUCH less. The amount of first rounders in the NBA and NFL Draft that become even an all star once (let alone perennial) is not close to 28%. Probably closer to 1 in every 10. So three every first round usually becomes an all star once.
28% is a very encouraging number compared to those who don't get a gold which is probably a single digit percentage.
Why is that defying the odds? What other race at the junior level gives you a 28% chance of certainty in winning a medal as a senior? Winners of the North Dakota southern regional district meet have a 0% chance based on history.
World juniors are obviously the best predictor.
Larry Dickman wrote:
Why is that defying the odds? What other race at the junior level gives you a 28% chance of certainty in winning a medal as a senior? Winners of the North Dakota southern regional district meet have a 0% chance based on history.
World juniors are obviously the best predictor.
We get it, this has been repeated 10 times already.
10/10 everyone bit, plus you got people to come to Cain's defence
Looser wrote:
28 percent is higher than I would have anticipated.
Me too. Is this anything new? Look at the stats for the other medalists and for the men. Much closer to the outcomes that I would expect.
I still have an old VHS tape of the first World Junior meet in 1988 in Vancouver. The men's 1500 was a battle between Morceli and Cacho. There was also a Kenyan named Wilfred Kirochi who ran 3:33 the next year.
World Juniors gold medalists are definitely a better indicator of future success in that sport than the NCAA.