Number of 5 minute miler in US

200,000 sounds a bit too high.

I estimate that the number of HS boys in the US is in the order of magnitude of 10 Million. I would also estimate that the average high school of 500 boys would have 2 or 3 sub 5 milers, or about 40,000 to 60,000 per 10 Million.

I would also estimate that high schoolers represent about a third to a half of all sub 5 milers, so that would give us about 100,000 to 150,000 total.

Of course these are all estimates. I sure if someone did a little research they could come up with a more accurate figure.

Of course, estimating another way, I would say that there are likely no more than 50 sub 5 milers living in San Francisco out of a populaation of about 750,000. This is one for every 15,000 citizens. Extrapolate this to approximately 300 Million in the US and you would have about 20,000 sub 5 milers.

Still, all estimates though.

METERS wrote:

Fast fact:

At one time early in the last century the 5 minute mile was good enough for a women to represent her country in Olympic competition.

It couldn't have been that early in the last century. I don't think the 1,500 meters was run as a women's event at the Olympics until 1972.

50 in SF??? i would have my doubts. If that's true, that's whack. there should be 50 or so in the school district alone. whatev..

100,000-150,000 sounds good to me

I bet you could find more than 50 sub5s in SF.

Say, 20% of all the HS guys could break 5 (hard to estimate though, given the WCAL and out of county students) + Shannon Rowbury (at school but still an SF native I believe), Kathryn Kreiger, Ciara Viewheg and a number of other quick females + all the male triathelets, Excelsior Runners and most of what's left the men's SFSU XC team + CCSF's native city runners in addition to those regular road racers and you're well in excess of 50.

In the City League, no there aren't. The SF City Championships are often won in 4:4x (two years ago by one Haileb Gebrselassie -- no joke). In the WCAL (which includes St. Ignatius and Sacred Heart as SF schools, but extends beyond the city) yes, you will find a number of sub5s. All of SI's top 7 this season should be all be under5.

You're on crack if you think there are only 50 5 minute milers in SF.

Even the weakest High School distance programs have at least one 5-minute miler. So you can assume that just about every American high school has one five minute miler in its student body. You can even throw in a few female high runners into mix.

The five-minute mile is the ultimate goal for the weekend middle distance runner.

The five minute mile will not get you respect in serious competition. It is more of a personal goal. Some middle aged men like to play corporate softball I get my satisfaction running mile times comparable to an average high school varsity miler.

A decade ago I knew a fifty-year-old five-minute miler. I saw him the other day in the park. At sixty he is still running decent times around 6:00 to 6:20. He told me he lost his leg speed at 45. "One day I woke up and could barely run 5:30", he said. I guess I will try to enjoy my new found 5-minute speed until my legs can no longer maintain a 12 mph pace.

I would say there are probably only 7,000 50 year old five minute milers in the US. I am sure past miling greats like Steve Scott, Jim Spivey, and Sidney Maree will have no problem cruising to a five minute mile when they hit 50 by the end of this decade. It is hard to believe that the AR holder is going to be 50 soon. His AR is as old as Alan Webb.

720 student public township high school, roughly even male/female split.

As best I remember it...

98-99 boys: 2 sub-5 milers (sub 4:50 and sub 4:40)

99-00 boys: 2 sub-5 milers (4:42/4:44)

00-01 boys: 1 sub-5 miler who never ran the mile

01-02 boys: 1 sub-5 miler (me, 4:46)

02-03 boys: 3 sub-5 milers (3 sub 4:50 milers)

girls: 1 sub-6 equivalent

03-04 boys: 4 sub-5 milers (3 sub 4:50 milers)

girls: 3 sub-6 miler equivalents

We've had our 4:10 milers and 52 sec 400 hurdlers and 17:30 5k runners (female) but we're sort of slumping. Just thought I'd add in examples.

my senior year we prolly had about 25-30 kids capable of the sub-5 mark. we were a decent program at a school of 2,000 kids. there were about 4 or 5 frosh who do it, 6 sophs, 5 or 6 juniors, and then about 3 seniors who ran the mile. and then there were some of the junior and senior 800m specialists who could run 1:56-2:04, and thus, that would easily be a 5:00. i can say this with confidence because i ran a 4:40 as a soph, and highly doubt that i declined that much, if at all.

My rural public high school had around 350 students and consistently has 5+ sub-five minute milers. This is probably higher than normal, but I would say that even the poorest high schools should have one or two guys capable of this. If you average in schools with strong programs, the numbers should quickly rise. While running under five minutes is admirable, it is by no means puts you among the elite. Even as an amateur. Additionally, we are looking at the United States. Not the strongest distance running country around.

Are you talking about every single person that has ever broken 5 or are you talking about current runners who can break 5 right now?

7,000 sub-5 milers over the age of 50 nationwide is waaay too high a figure and suggests the same is true of your overall estimate. California (where I live) has 10% of the population, so that would mean there should be 700 here (at least, given that Californians are more active than average). Where are these guys? The winning time in the Sacramento road mile senior event, which is on the Pacific Association circuit, was 4:59. There may not be a dozen Californians over 50 who could step on a track tomorrow and run a sub-5:00 mile. Extrapolate that nationwide and the figure is probably not much more than 100.

?uestion wrote:

Are you talking about every single person that has ever broken 5 or are you talking about current runners who can break 5 right now?

He's saying current.

METERS wrote:

The five-minute mile is the ultimate goal for the weekend middle distance runner.

Is this true? What would an equivalent 5K be for these types of people?

There has gotta be more than 200,000 people in the US who can currently run sub 5. Take Illinois HS - You have at least 75 kids at York alone who can break 5. At my HS every senior and much of the soccer players could break 5. Some of the more fit swimmers could break five coming off their season with ease.

I imagine 1 out of every 250 people in Boston could break 5 in the mile, giving the city's enormous running population.

I'd wager to say more than a million Americans are currently able to break 5 in the mile.

It's not really as hard as you'd think.

san fran has 500,000 people. i bet if everyone in the city was forced to race a mile there would be atleast 500 who could break five in the mile. that is one in a 1000.

if the us population is about 280,000,000, then one in a thousand would be 280,000. but i think san fran is not representive of the country as whole and the national average is probably about 1 per 1500 people. so i would then estimate the national number to between 180,000 to 200,000.

this is pure speculation, but i am good at speculating.

we should organize a nation wide time trial.

dk

I would say a 18:00 5k is comparable in difficulty to a five minute mile. A five minute miler should be able to maintain a 6 minute mile pace for 5k. A 18:00 5k is probably harder to do than a five minute mile.

I am sure world class 45 second quarter milers should have no problem breaking a five minute mile. Any world class sprinter probably has the necessary speed to run a sub five minute mile.

If I am not mistakened their are a handful of 65+ runners who have broken the 5 minute mile barrier. Wasn't their a sheep farmer in New Zealand who run a 4:45 mile at 70.

One question: Do you mean right now, or sometime this year, or ever in their lives? I'm guessing you mean sometime this year.

We could look at this by grouping. Scholastic runners (7th to 12th grade), collegiate runners, and open runners.

There were almost 200,000 boys who ran HS XC last year. Deciding what portion of them were sub-5:00 milers can be done by other people. Maybe a half? A third? A quarter? I'd have to guess that the average 5:00 miler would run about 18:00 for cross, but that's just off the top of my head. There are junior high kids, but a hell of a lot less of them run sub-5:00. And then there are kids who didn't run XC but did run sub-5:00. Some of them ran track and played football (like Robert Gary and Paul McMullen did in HS). And a lot of football teams have mile tests, where some backs/recievers might break 5:00.

The NCAA reports 11,267 men competing in XC in the 2002-03 school year. You'd have to assume all of them ran sub-5:00 sometime that year. Again, some non-XC people break 5:00 in college; tests for other sports and ROTC being the most likely. My alma mater even has intramural track, and I bet there are a few guys who beat 5:00 trying to score all-sports trophy points for their fraternity every so often.

Open runners? That's pretty tough. Most ordinary people who run do road races, not open track meets. Just take a wild-ass guess here.

Then there are the women. Probably about 100 HS girls in any one year, and who knows how many college and open women.

j squire wrote:

There were almost 200,000 boys who ran HS XC last year. Deciding what portion of them were sub-5:00 milers can be done by other people. Maybe a half? A third? A quarter?

Not even close. Between cross country, indoor track, and outdoor track, we probably had about 30 to 40 middle distance or long distance runners in my high school.

2 of us broke 5. That's it.