I Admit It--I Underestimated Mary Cain

T&FN underestimated Cain too. They had her picked for 4th in USATF 1500m in their final formchart released on 6/25.

You do realize Cain hasn't had much of a racing season while Alexa has been racing hard since May, right? She peaked earlier this month at her State meet. Plain and simple.

Cain still looks less sharp than she did this winter. And, oddly, she's running the 3k not the 1500 at Juniors. Plus, she really doesn't look as fluid as she did two years ago - so it's hard to tell whether we're really seeing improvement especially as compared with last year. It would be interesting, but unlikely, to hear some candid comments on this from NOP. But there's no doubt right now she's solidly number three or better in the 1500 (if you count Brenda Martinez as possibly number two). She thrashed the others twice this year (today and and US indeers). I guess we're all somewhat unfairly waiting for her next step in performance. Which may be why we had the big Alexa boom in the last month or so.

I'm glad you had the guts to go up admit it, Cain is just now getting into form and I can't wait to see what she does in Europe this summer

GoldenMiles wrote:

Does everyone think she'll repeat her win at NXN? Will she be untouchable next year?

Yes, should be able to win easily.

Yes, as long as she doesn't run FLN.

Cain is a baller, and a nice kid. She and Jenny are awesome for US track.

Let us all admit it...Mary Cain haters are rooted in the fact that her Coach is Al Sal...and let's face that issue too, Al Sal is infamous to all the LRC fans.

It is true, her racing schedule hasn't been intensive like Alexa's schedule. HOWEVER...takes us back to when Jordan Hasay ran with the professionals while she was still in high school...she ran awesome and made it through the rounds but hit her limit not just because she had kept a peak, or had a tough season...she was still a girl running with women. (I won't get into other junior internationals...this is a perspective based on US runners). Even Jim Ryan couldn't advance to the 1964 Olympic 1500m final...why...he was a boy that was running with men. He wasn't mature enough to handle the rounds and intensity. I believe it is the same with Alexa...not old enough to run the the type of schedule she ran.

Mary Cain is the real deal. She is under the microscope because of her coach (we either love him, hate him, or love to hate him...but that is whole other post).

Mary is talented and is just getting ready for a great season. She does start school in August and probably wants time to transition. Al Sal is shrewd at strategically racing his athletes and building to an ultimate time (or attempt at a great placing)...i.e. Rupp (he's mastermind Rupp's speed for years and we see it paying off...he's not naturally gifted with that kick butt last quarter all out kick...but Al Sal has developed it...look at Mo Farah...great talent but it wasn't unleashed till he went to Alberto).

We should really watch to see Mary perform. She is in good hands and I see Al Sal developing her for the long run not the short term. I do hope that she looks at participating in XC championships (US and Worlds). That would really test her. The women's international squads would really build her confidence, racing strategies and be able to develop her strength. She values her education and she is also a professional...hopefully she can focus on international XC races and help revitalize cross country...but that's another ball of wax.

Mary has lots of growing up to do...she is an adult...but has just started that journey. We as her fans, fans of the sport,...we will continue to praise, shame, outcast, bandwagon,...but why? Is it her...or is it the one who coaches her? I am sure some LRC will probably respond to post and be eloquent or an rear end (grammar, my opinion, the fact that someone drank their last ice cold coca cola that was hidden way in back of the fridge...)- we need to admit that at times we are wrong and lets move on.

Uhm, What?? wrote:

You do realize Cain hasn't had much of a racing season while Alexa has been racing hard since May, right? She peaked earlier this month at her State meet. Plain and simple.

Yep. It took me a while to figure it out, though. Like I said in my OP, it has to do with running a HS vs. a professional season.

Still, Alexa's only a junior. I'd say she's a Ritzenhein-like HS talent. Maybe even Webb.

my prediction wrote:

GoldenMiles wrote:

Does everyone think she'll repeat her win at NXN? Will she be untouchable next year?

Yes, should be able to win easily.

Yes, as long as she doesn't run FLN.

Is it possible to do both?

Alanson wrote:

She thrashed the others twice this year (today and and US indeers).

Indeers? I would understand if you had typed indiirs. But the E key is all the way across the keyboard. That's some feat that you managed to mistype so far away from the O.

I do agree with you, though.

Good post.

Mostly I just have to think to myself that the US has a freaking HSer (or damn near it), who made it to the World FINALS and also won a national silver medal in a distance race. We have some great mid-distance talent lately, especially on the woman's side (and especially youngsters), which wasn't the case even 5-10 years back.

I'm now Team Mary (and Alexa)!

James C. wrote:

Let us all admit it...Mary Cain haters are rooted in the fact that her Coach is Al Sal...and let's face that issue too, Al Sal is infamous to all the LRC fans.

...

Mary is talented and is just getting ready for a great season. She does start school in August and probably wants time to transition. Al Sal is shrewd at strategically racing his athletes and building to an ultimate time (or attempt at a great placing)

...

We should really watch to see Mary perform. She is in good hands and I see Al Sal developing her for the long run not the short term.

Similar thoughts here about Salazar bringing Cain along slowly and not rushing, not only long-term but this year as well. This LRC crowd is so incredibly impatient even when they aren't hating on Alberto.

Someone said earlier in the thread that Cain isn't yet looking sharp -- to me she does still look a little sluggish compared to the lift, snap, and free-flowing power she displayed when kicking for home as seen in the videos of her indoor performances this year. However, despite a bit of sluggishness, at the same time she looked basically good here at USATFs.

Obviously just a guess here, but makes me wonder whether Salazar may be having her train through these first few early (for her) outdoor-season efforts. Not just the first two 800s at Pre and New York DL but even these two 1500s at USATFs to an extent, to avoid too much interruption in rebuilding her form after the slight calf injury. Not worrying too much about results even at USATF, putting the focus on later in the season.

I also tend to doubt any real ducking has gone on. If you were trying to utilize a series of races as rust-busters and to help gradually get sharp and practice tactics, wouldn't you want it low-key instead of putting your protege in a race where they might feel they had something to prove? I can see how people could call that ducking, but Salazar in particular probably doesn't give a rip what's being said on message boards. And every interview I've seen with Cain so far indicates she's on another wavelength as well, not so myopic as her fans are.

My experience has been when one finds out (often years later) what actually was happening behind the scenes in a given situation where the public eye is on someone, the actual concerns of the protagonists as often as not are somewhat afield from what was commonly being speculated about at the time. They have other fish to fry.

I'm not going into the rest of Cain's season with much in the way of preconceptions, but one thought: If she and Salazar are realistically aiming at sub-4:00 in August, and that comes to pass, it implies we could see a great kickers' battle between Simpson and Cain. Perhaps more than one.

Of course. A few girls and boys do both every year. Verzbicas won both his final year.

Listening in wrote:

Of course. A few girls and boys do both every year. Verzbicas won both his final year.

Hmm...didn't know that. When I ran HS XC there was only Foot Locker.

Alexa should do both. Has anyone else ever won both?

Unless she can qualify from a different region, she cannot do both.

If I remember correctly, FL West is on the same day as NXN.

Cain's body has changed since last year -- much thicker from the midsection down. Body maturation, but she's still running well. Hopefully it won't stop her progress like it did Hasay.

very good post GoldenMiles! I am similar to you in that I stopped following TnF closely for a few years leading up to 2009. That year my father invited me to the Millrose games at MSG in NYC. We went with my Uncle and a few a guys he and my father had run with in HS and college. We got there early for the HS events and they all seemed to be interested in the girls 2 mile relay. Turns out their buddy Charlie Cain's granddaugter was running the anchor for Bronxville. I Saw in the program she was only in the 8th grade so I was intrigued as to what she could run. I think she ran about 2:18 that night which isn't bad for an 11 lap to the mile wooden track. I forgot about her and TnF until we all went to the same meet again the next winter. Same setup as the year before with Mary running the 2 mile relay anchor for Bronxville. This time she ran 2:12 which looked like 2 flat because she passed so many runners! I said ok I'm going track this kid's progress. 2 weeks later she ran a 4:46 mile anchor for the DMR at the indoor nationals in the Armory. I was shocked that a 14 year old girl was running this fast. Outdoors comes and now I am following every meet. She ends up as the NY state champ at 1500 in at state record time of 4:17.8! Beating Aisling Cuffe in the process! And she was a freshman! Sophmore year was even better! I followed every race and Mary rarely disappointed. One race I feel was a major turning point in her career to date was the girls HS mile at Millrose her soph yr. At this point the running world had taken notice and was running great times and setting all sorts of class and state records.(I believe she set the state 1000 meter record the week before Millrose). Any way the Millrose had moved from MSG to the Armory and there was a lot of hype for the meet with Mary being one of the main attractions. I got my tickets at the finish line for this one and brought my fiancee to her first track meet.(She had been to a XC meet with me and we said hello to Mary at the meet so she thought it was cool that we were going to this big hyped event to see her run!)Well the race didn't go as planned with Mary 4th in 4:52 and Sam Nadel the winner in 4:46. To me this was a big test for her. How would she handle the loss? The post race interviewer asked her about her disappointment and was she worried about young girls who run fast and then don't improve as they get older. She handled the interview great and the next week she crushed the field in the 1500 at the NYS champs! That showed me she had the mental toughness not only to be a great runner but to handle disappointment and losses. This is a great trait to have because we all know in running it's not always going to be victory laps. Early that outdoor season of her soph yr Mary ran an open 400 in 55.5! That was the race when I said this kid is really going to be one of the best. Everything is there, the speed the strength the mental toughness and just a great attitude towards life! I can go on about the accomplishments since then but everyone pretty much knows them. I feel she and her parents have made great decisions and choices about her career to date and looking at the results so far, they have. I ran into Mary's grandfather Charlie at a HS awards dinner in Queens Ny recently and he is a real gentleman! I let him know how Mary rejuvenated my interest in the sport and what a great attitude she seemed to have. When I introduced my wife to him she said "Grandfather? You look like you could be her father you look so young!" So Mary has great genes to boot! There have been so many things written about Mary on the internet over the last few years that I say to myself I hope she doesn't read all this stuff. But I also think she is such a level headed good natured person that she knows not to take it all to serious. I guess my point of writing all this is that we should really all appreciate what Mary has brought to the sport and even if she never stepped foot on a track again what we have seen is historic! But she is going to step on the track again and keep running great and proving the naysayers wrong! The most important thing(and you will hear Mary say this) is that she will have FUN doing it!

Cool cucumber wrote:

Someone said earlier in the thread that Cain isn't yet looking sharp -- to me she does still look a little sluggish compared to the lift, snap, and free-flowing power she displayed when kicking for home as seen in the videos of her indoor performances this year. However, despite a bit of sluggishness, at the same time she looked basically good here at USATFs.

Obviously just a guess here, but makes me wonder whether Salazar may be having her train through these first few early (for her) outdoor-season efforts. Not just the first two 800s at Pre and New York DL but even these two 1500s at USATFs to an extent, to avoid too much interruption in rebuilding her form after the slight calf injury. Not worrying too much about results even at USATF, putting the focus on later in the season.

I recall that somewhere on LR, there was either an article or a video that actually had information regarding Cain's choice to run the 3000m at Junior Nationals instead of the 1500m.

Apparently, the reason is that she believes that since the 3000m has no rounds to deal with, she will be able to train through it better than she would with the 1500m, and peak appropriately in August. Unless someone has information regarding exactly what Salazar & Cain planned for USATF Nationals, it's probably safe to assume that she trained through it.

Thank you for the compliment! I guess how you felt after watching her in HS and seeing her great times and also gray personality is how I felt after watching USATF Nationals this year and her interview afterwards. I'd only watched her run once or twice before, so it was great seeing her put out a staggering performance to get a silver in 90+ degree heat. I also thought she seemed cool in the post-race interview, and, like you said, she knows how to have fun running, which is so important for long-term success.

I really think she is the female equivalent of Alan Webb in terms of renewing interest in the sport for the US, although there really aren't any past equivalents to her the way Ryun was Webb's precursor (I know there were girls like Mary Decker and Kim Gallager, but Mary C. is more of a superstar, like Webb was back in the early '00s).

I won't lie, I'm jealous you got to meet Cain's grandfather and congratulate her after meets!