Our women's 10k preview is now up:
Should be a good race between Flanagan, Hasay, Conley and Hastings.
Hasay comes into the meet off of a 5k PB. Can she challenge Flanagan?
Maybe Alberto should have her run a 1500 or mile a few hours before the races as Jordan seems to have produced the best 3000 and 5000 of her life just a few hours after a hard 1500/mile.
Can any coaches explain why she's run so great in races like that?
Who wins? Gives us your predictions.
I think the only way Flanagan loses is it she lets it come down to the last mile. I'll be interested to see if she takes it out hard from the gun, like last year, or chills out for the first 2-3 miles before surging. History suggests she'll do her own thing and get away early, but if it's warm out then maybe she'll be a bit more conservative.
Shalane, easily. Looks like mid-70s at 8pm. She'll take it from the gun and there's no one strong enough to sit on her to make it interesting.
Assuming Flanagan is reasonably close to her top form of recent years, Molly Huddle is the only American woman who has shown the capability of challenging her at 10k.
SF wins. She will run with the pack through 3k/5k and will take the lead, shaking off a couple of "cling-ons" in the first kilo after taking the lead. Unless, someone pulls down her bunhuggers around her ankles.
No way.. she'll go hard from the gun. Conley and Hasay go with her.
i think bates deserves to be mentioned in this conversation
Actually this is a big race for Amy Hastings since she has not had a high quality performance since the London Olympics; Moscow WC was not strong.
It's Flanagan's race to lose; Hastings may have trouble making Top Ten against quality along with some up and coming runners. Conley poised to do well ... could win.
Flanagan might pull one of her opening laps bursts to try to lose the field.
Shalane. She doesn't get enough credit as a great runner.
Look for a surprise from dark-horse Rachel Ward. She's on a trajectory.
Son of Jesse Owens wrote:
Look for a surprise from dark-horse Rachel Ward. She's on a trajectory.
What has she run?
Is there any realistic chance that Flanagan loses if she's not injured or seriously ill? I just don't see any chance of her not dominating.
I concur Shalane wins easily. Hasay fights not to get lapped.
Big Fan wrote:
I concur Shalane wins easily. Hasay fights not to get lapped.
I like Jordan but this was my exact thought. I think Shalane is still far better than Jordan. When we see Jordan beating Shalane, Shalane's retirement won't be far off.
Big Fan wrote:
I concur Shalane wins easily. Hasay fights not to get lapped.
Agreed that Shalane wins easily. I expect Hasay to be in the chase pack, so if Hasay gets lapped, I think it means the entire field gets lapped.
Salazar seems to like having Hasay push from about 600m out, but I'm curious to see what would happen if Hasay tried sitting in the chase pack to 200m out, then going full speed. [I continue to be intrigued by that 57 second 400m she talked about running in practice - I think it would be cool to see her try to use that top gear in a race.]
Maybe the day will come when Hasay has the strength to push from 600m out AND hit top speed over the last 200m, but I don't think she's there yet.
Anyway, should be an interesting race for 2nd.
dkny64 wrote:
I continue to be intrigued by that 57 second 400m she talked about running in practice
Yeah, wish this was looking to be more of a race. Jordan's probably a work in progress for the next couple years similar to where Abby D is now. There are a few who could take the place, so to speak of Shalane and Molly and just a couple others on the US scene.
What gets me is that SF and MH are kinda doing what 2 Ethiopians we all have watched so much seem to do a lot, which is not race each other and easily win one race each. Admittedly our local stars aren't winning globally like those 2 but as far as National Champioships go, I'd love to see the 10k on Thurday night and the 5k on Sunday night. Actually, vice versa would be even better. You could do both and actually be competitive at both. Otherwise, you end up with our version of Defar easy taking one and Dibaba easily taking the other in (for them) fairly pedestrian times.
Jordan Hasay is a real cutie pie. My prediction is 30:26.
2nd place.
I wouldn't bet on any of them it doesn't really seem like they are ready but other people are so watch out for the other people that might be in the chase for the top spot.