Official Rupp DL Oslo 5k Prediction Thread

I'd say he's in 12:53 shape, but this race will start off tactical and he'll end up w/ a 13:03

I'm going to say 12:57, barely PR

12:51 Gebremeskel FTW

Ndiku 12:51

Rupp 7th in 12:57

Centro 3:51

If the pace is fast and steady, Rupp will hit 12:55. More tactical race, 13:02.

this.

windy according to the forecast.

12:58

No idea what the winning time will be, but I see Rupp approx. 3 seconds back in 5th - 8th place [and getting the AR if the winning time is under 12:50].

Top 3 would be very impressive for Rupp, winning would put him on a whole new level.

p.s. I see Gebrhiwet is no longer on the start list - does anyone know why? [beyond his recent results not being great.]

13:07

or slower

Sub 12:50

logician wrote:

Sub 12:50

I see only two [unlikely] scenarios in which Rupp breaks 12:50.

-The race is won in under 12:47

OR

-The rabbit takes Rupp to 3k in 7:42 - 7:45, then Rupp takes over the lead after the rabbit drops out and continues to push the pace. [I think this scenario would give Rupp some chance of winning the race, but I'll be surprised if it happens.]

all NOPers are dopers

xp from similar thread.

No one has been pushing the pace in these DL races lately. If Rupp wants a record, he'll have to take the lead. As usual he'll say he's racing to win. Against that field I don't see it happening, and probably his best chance for top 3 is to push the pace himself. But unfortunately I don't see it happening at this one. If he does take over in the middle part, that would be a big departure in tactics, but we'll see. It's a big field, so maybe someone else will get frisky and pull them along. Even perhaps Lomong! Rupp may not be 100% recovered, but he's in form and should try to get the most out of it. 12:51 best case, 13:02 worst case. Argh, I'm gonna be hopeful and say 12:53.xx, just a sliver under the 12:53.60 AR. Still hope to see him hit 12:47 at some point.

This is the meet where Lagat broke Ritz's AR in 2010 in 12:54.12 (Solinsky was 12:56.66, finishing third, and lowered it another second the next year in Monaco.

meant to close parens after "third", obviously it was Lagat who lowered his own AR.

The LetsRun.com take of his AR chances is now up:

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2014/06/galen-rupp-willwont-get-american-record/

We tweeted that article out and asked Bernard Lagat if he was nervous. He tweeted back:

"Quite possible- judging from his 26:44 shape at Pre, he can do it!"

I think Rupp gets the AR and also wins. Not quite as fast as some folks think, I'm guessing 12:52 ftw.

Galen's still gonna be somewhat tired from PRE and won't be ready for a fast time til late June early July. I'll say best possible scenario 12:58 in a 100% perfect scenario. I think Galen runs 13:02-13:05 though.

J.R. wrote:

13:07

he just ran 26:44 genius

with a 1:57 last 800

P.S. drugs work

I really hope it's not windy, I want to see some good times... The problem w/ Rupp is, if he pushes the pace, the 12:4x Kenyans/Ethiopians will get him in the end cause he will sting his own kick... if he does make it tactical he will get outkicked by multiple of them... He can't win either way which is why I think Alberto is stressing him to develop a kick, and if he wants the AR, you guys are right, he'll have to push that 4th K...

And whoever said Rupp will get out in 7:42-7:45 then push the pace is WRONG! 7:48 pace is 13:00 5k pace and Rupp likes to negative split... In the 2013 Monaco meeting the pacers and top group went out in 7:41 and he didn't go w/ him so I know he won't commit suicide in the first 3k...

He himself will go out in 7:48 then start hitting 62's w/ a fast last lap relative to where he needs to be... Tbh: I really don't think he's going after the AR if the race gets tactical, I actually think Alberto wants him to race this and then later on at Monaco/Paris/Brussels he will attack the record...