800, 10,000, and 5,000 American records could all be broken on home soil if things go right!
800, 10,000, and 5,000 American records could all be broken on home soil if things go right!
The question is which has the best chance of going, I guess. I would say the 10k, followed by 800, then 5k is least likely
I would be shocked if any of the three are broken.
Doo wrote:
I would be shocked if any of the three are broken.
I agree with this.
You don't think Centro has a shot at the mile AR?
His 1500m PR from two years ago is equivalent to 3:48.8 and he looked good in his last race.
Kiprop is ready to run 3:46, so he will have someone to go after.
Never say never but it is still very early in the season for those type of performances compared to the Zurich, Brussels or Reita GP races. The wind and high pollen count could also also be mitigating factors.
Too bad Wheating not running, I think he would have best chance of breaking AR.
I don't think it's too early in the season considering there is no championship to peak for.
Yes, lack of being race sharp may be a factor.
But sometimes PRs come off of an early part of the taper when you still have a lot of strength and feel real good from having a couple of light weeks.
And they ran fast a few weeks ago in Doha.
I don't expect a fast 5000 and it's hard to believe Lagat can actually PR at this stage, although he did well indoors.
If Solomon's ready he can do it.
10,000 bests often come at this time of the year.
I do think the air has to be right.
It's one of those things that's never measured, but sometimes the air is just easier to cut through on certain days. And I thing overcast helps, as a sunny day is draining.
No chance, No chance, and No chance.....
some chance in the 800m - 10%? - small chance at 5000m or 10000m - 2%? - virtually no chance in the mile. [Kiprop has run a bunch of 1M races and his PR is 3:48.50. No one other than Webb has broken 3:47 since El G in 2000. Could Kiprop break 3:47? yes. Could Centro? REALLY unlikely - significantly less than 1% chance.]
800- 30%
5000- 10%
10,000 - 25%
How crazy would this be wrote:
800, 10,000, and 5,000 American records could all be broken on home soil if things go right!
So you're saying that if people run fast enough, they will break records? Pretty mind-blowing.
Assuming they are independent events it should be
P(A or B or C)= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A and B) - P (B and C) - P(A and C) + P(A and B and C)=0.5275
So we have about a 50% chance of seeing at least one record this weekend if these projections are correct.
unless I am missing something, he is not on the Bowerman mile list. However, he could possibly be in the international mile, but then again if Leer is in the Bowerman mile, then I would not think Centro would be in the international mile at all.
http://www.diamondleague-eugene.com/Live-StartlistsResults/Overview/Bowerman-Mile/
The Rocket. wrote:
Assuming they are independent events it should be
P(A or B or C)= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A and B) - P (B and C) - P(A and C) + P(A and B and C)=0.5275
So we have about a 50% chance of seeing at least one record this weekend if these projections are correct.
I think your estimates of the probabilities are very optimistic, and the probabilities aren't independent since they will all be influenced by weather conditions. [If the estimates are based on a fixed set of assumptions about the weather conditions, then I would agree that assuming them to be independent is a reasonable way to go.]
Do you understand the term independent? It means that one event has no impact on the other events. The weather is certainly a factor, but it has nothing to do with the term independent from a mathematical standpoint.
How crazy would this be wrote:
American records could all be broken on home soil if things go right!
Have you awoken from your little dream yet?
Kiprop has not really run a bunch of one mile races.
He runs one or tow a year - Pre and Oslo.
And he doesn't put up a lot of fast 1500m times.
He mostly races to win and will have a fast time here or there.
He has 3:44 ability. He just hasn't gone for it.
And I don't expect them to go for it this weekend.
But the ability is there and I think Centro CAN run 3:46.
WILL he, though?
In the know on Haney wrote:
Do you understand the term independent? It means that one event has no impact on the other events. The weather is certainly a factor, but it has nothing to do with the term independent from a mathematical standpoint.
It's been a while, but my understanding of the mathematical term "independent" in this context is that if the variables A, B and C are independent, then P(A and B and C) = P(A) x P(B)x P(C). Let's start from our friend Rocket's estimates:
800- 30%
5000- 10%
10,000 - 25%
If these three events are independent, then the probability of all three happening should be .3 x .1 x .25 = .0075 [less than 1%]
Now we look at the weather component of our estimated probabilities. Simple scenario: these records can only be set under favorable weather conditions, the weather conditions for all three events will be the same, and the chance of favorable weather conditions is 50%.
Now the chance of all three happening is .5 [of favorable weather conditions] x .6 x .2 x .5 = .03 [aka 3%]. [all the probabilities of the record breaking outcome are doubled under the favorable conditions since they are 0 under the unfavorable conditions.]
Seems to me that we can't call these probabilities independent.
I would love to see Rupp break the 10000m record and before he ran his last race I would have said without a doubt he would get it but the 5000m he ran was discouraging, so unfortunately I don't see that happen.
The only way the 5000m is going down would be Lagat getting it (NO other American in that race is going to run 12:53) and his chances of getting it are slim because pacing usually isn't that great in 5000m races and even if they do have a good pacer through 3000m, the field usually slows down during the fourth kilometer to prepare for a fast finish. Lagat isn't the type to push the pace to try to get a record.
Would love to see the 800m too, but Solomon's performance at world relays was discouraging.
I'll watch intently, but I don't see any of them happening